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I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy.

.35-.4 there? It’s pretty light overall and moving out quick. Some of those echoes have a little bright banding too.

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

This would have been fluff. Probably will end up .35-.4ish. At least T-Day looks good and we were right to toss the gfs from yesterday.

wanna make a bet ?

If it was exceptionally fake.

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with. And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall.

This is terrible. What a bust.

Could have been a nice 4-6”.

Congrats on the couple tenths?

Winter has arrived and we're all very excited to see what Santa brings us this year. A snowy SWFE? Killer cutter? We'll soon find out. Also there are growing rumors of a latitudinal winter which could lead to a major regional war. Stay tuned!

I'm down visiting some of my wife's family in NJ this weekend. Took a ride out to visit her uncle in Long Valley. I think you were from that area? The trees are completely bare there and they have had snow twice and some decent cold according to her uncle. But today I am near EWR and it was like going back in time a full month+ or so with the trees and stuff flowering. Looks like EWR still hasn't gone below 32.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal. Not sure how much this really matters tho. MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet.

You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

In the bigger picture, it's not really a big deal. It happens rarely. I think the other notable one was in August when a lot of models were warm in the long range and it ended up being cool.

Come on what? It's a perfect example that the models are doing poorly with warm forecasts and second, we're all wasting our time with these digital slot machines we call models! Lol

Yep but by then it’s too late. Too late Luther, Too late!

I'm personally not a big fan on long range MJO forecastability. I've seen a lot of times actually over the last 10 years where patterns drastically change when the MJO is projected to go into favorable phases for X.

Come on man.. there is like 1 instance of a ridge leading to a trough in the east coast over the last year, and it's already been posted like 3 times lol. The large scale features held: -epo, +pna. I don't know why it had a big ridge when the Pacific looked like that anyway, but you know long range models hit at about 0.80 correlation accuracy. Especially when 1,000 mile wide features have a strong signal. It's predictable. 2-4 week models are much less predictable, there is a pretty big fall off after 384hr in predictability.

No doubt.

It could look a lot worse. December being in play is a good start.

As evidence of my statement that longer range forecasts haven't done well this year, top pick is last night's EPS forecast for Black Friday 12z and bottom forecast us from 11/15 12z.