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GFS looking a bit stronger, more organized System does look quite potent on satellite
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Let's give him a chance, he has to hit once in a while. Cecily's should be coming up within a month. I think FOX has theirs within the same time frame. Did channel cbs3 and channel nbc10 gave up on the winter outlook forecast. Not sure? -
Still a fairly nice day on the water. A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning. 20251011_104915.mp4
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The Euro isn’t the only model to show multiple lows. I think I saw the NAM 3k and a few others with a similar look with their 6z runs.
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
JenkinsJinkies replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
55 and rain instead of 45 and rain -
models may be worthless right up to go time for this one...just all over the place
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area. Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19: 1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet events early in December. (Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.) -
Models show about 40kts moving in tonight on OBX and hotel room is about 50 feet above the dunes facing east. Could be a little fun on the balcony as the low level jet moves through.
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
konksw replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
What effect do with think the sun angle will have? -
Will update headline for OBS for NWS Warned fairly powerful Nor'easter etc around 5PM. Keep the info flowing. all good.
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
TSSN+ replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
How much does 0:1 produce? -
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
WxWatcher007 replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Looks like a robust wave too. That may be about it for the Atlantic though the GFS wants to develop two waves in the next 10 days. Pretty surprising that nothing has had a chance in the Caribbean or Gulf this season. -
"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.
Snowlover11 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
im down here currently in AC. You can tell its going to cause issues. the beach is more than half under already.- 270 replies
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
JenkinsJinkies replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Will the Niña dying in Jan/Feb finally open the floodgates 2018 style or did the 22-23 enso break another part of the atmosphere and now it’s going to rain less here as well as snow less? -
ICON ensembles are good for our area. But for some reason the OP prefers to bring heavy rain all the way to Lake George while somehow avoiding our area.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Jns2183 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Current model predictions for Harrisburg Gfs .4" has over 1" just east Gfs AI .8" Euro .7" Euro AI .2" Gdps .2 Ukmet .1 Nam 2.0" Each of these models somehow are also all on their own little islands with the evolution of this storm and rain distribution. Each one wants to setup a secondary max somewhere in central to north central Pennsylvania with a nice big moat in between. Thank God this cluster f**** of a storm isn't a snow storm because it seems blending and averging precipitation amounts has a high chance of busting both high and low in many areas and good luck figuring that out before tomorrow Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk -
RGEM and ICON still look like garbage.
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Hope it stays 500 miles off the coast. I have some outside things to do and driving sucks in the rain. Plus it'll piss drought guy off and he'll post more...maybe even make a winter prediction if he hasn't already. -
Water levels already running about 0.5-0.75' above normal high tide at Sandy Hook & AC Steel Pier
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- Today
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"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.
nightknights replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Grrr Bahamas.- 270 replies
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
WxUSAF replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
#TeamNAMRideOrDie -
I got .08 inches out of that thin little batch that really looked very light on radar.
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I don't know if it means much, but I had a band of mist move through about 9:00 am, followed by partly sunny skies.
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
JTA66 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
God bless the NAM, it wants to bring the low up the Chesapeake.