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I hope the rain holds off until the evening. I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming. I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

Do you believe in the magic of the Equinox?

Mine has too, hope to thicken the lawn this fall.

We aren't there yet. This upcoming period is probably only marginally related to the Nino. The atmospheric response in our area will likely become more notable in another month or so. Right now its about obliterating the drought. Concern about the thermals is way out there, and we know it will be problematic.

Nothing at 5pm

The signal that Katrina was the sure sign of global warming causing ever increasing destruction to the USA was Gore style hype.

I mean it is a niño, precip isn’t a problem. It’s the thermals you gotta watch come wintertime.

Anyway we get out of this next week without it being miserable? I need some hope.

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

One can hope.

Here are some conceptual examples of what this would look like with winter temperatures:

Cfs2 has a seperate link for the coming month. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/monthly/

Congrats that’s a big moment and a special time for you and her. I graduated in 2004 and have been a season ticket holder ever since. Have a great time!

Follow-up: I emailed the 2 contacts who are listed at this CFSv2 site. Just minutes later, the site was updated! Here’s the brand new latest 10 day mean RONI forecast: as expected, the progged peak dropped even further to +2.8. Compare that to the +3.5 runs of late July. It appears it could even drop to +2.75 later this month based on the red vs blue lines:

Scorching high of 94 after a low of 69. Hopefully we won't see anymore mid 90's.

Cooler air will return for the weekend. Saturday will be a dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highw will be in the upper 60s to around 70°. A rainy period will likely develop late Sunday. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -34.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.661 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Depends on the year since the ridge location and intensity has been quite variable during previous super El Niño Octobers. This year is doing its own thing so far with the ridges stronger and further south than usual. We’ll have to see what the pattern looks like in early October since all we have now is a snapshot for the start of the month.