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Some historical cases where RI cycle/markedly improved upper-level outflow at and after landfall. Andrew Aug 1992 S FL Andrew was undergoing RI at at landfall, and the eye was actually 1 C warmer 1 hr after landfall. I recall the last recon pressure was 932 mb, and they estimated 926 mb for landfall, but readings on land n the eye found 922 mb in post-storm analysis. Charley Aug 2004 SW FL Charley was undergoing RI those last 12 hours up until landfall as upper-level outflow was improving due to favorable trough interaction upon recurvature. A very compact hurricane that maintained its inner core w/ usually high winds well inland all the way to MCO (G108mph there). Fay Aug 2008 SW FL Fay was a disorganized TS at landfall, but in the next 6 hours, satellite presentation improved big time, and eye formed on sat/radar, and its symmetry was outstanding (on the VIS image link below, it even developed a subsidence ring around its CDO, which is a telltale sign of strong TC on sat). It was the only time I have seen NHC increase the winds for a TC significantly inland (60 to 65 mph - winds over Lake Okeechobee). https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/50/Fay_19_aug_2008_1615Z_Cropped.jpg/960px-Fay_19_aug_2008_1615Z_Cropped.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=thumbnail http://ultimatechase.com/chase_accounts/Images/Tropical_Storm_Fay/RAD_KMLB_N0R_ANI.gif Harvey Aug 2017 TX Harvey was undergoing RI those last 12 hr to landfall, and the eye remains intact very well some distance inland. Look at this EIR loop of Harvey, Very strong, practically ideal, upper-level outflow develops not long before and after landfall as evidenced by the large anticyclone cirrus plume. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qjhW6lxkws These are just some examples. There are many others.

But we have Lowell and HI for it all to focus on now. Let the games (hysterics) begin!

There is another effect overlooked here, actually two. 1) I would argue there is a "tropical landscape effect," meaning lowlands/swamps/marshes and a general tropical marine air mass that is not far inland provides at least neutral moisture/latent heat to keep things going better or maintain than say and area that is not like that, but not a desert either (brown ocean effect). 2) Look at the mid-level WV loop for the past 3 days. One, you have a trough nearly stationary over NE Mexico. Two, watch what happens over the FL PH. An upper low cuts off and deepens. Now look at the 250 mb analysis. I attached the 03/00z ECMWF fcst 03 hr 250 mb. Edouard moved directly under a large upper level ridge center. Note that a small cyclonic center is right over Edouard's center, but that is ok b/c TCs often has a tiny cyclonic low even at this level. So upper level conditions became nearly ideal aloft for outflow given two upper troughs either side of the TC, and a upper level ridge directly over it. This can and does result in intensification at times, at least the mid-level circulation and for satellite presentation, for a TC moving inland. Recall before Edouard's landfall, there was some shear evident, and the convection was pulsing in blobs. At 1230z on landfall day, after struggling a bit satellite, a big blow up of convection occurred directly over the center, and radiated out uniformly, which is a solid sign of intensification, and often this is due to an improvement of the overall environment, In this case, the small amount of shear likely lessened, and that resulted in less dry air being pushed into the core, so Edouard "made its move," so to speak. And once inland, continued improvement aloft and the dry slots on radar vanished, and we got a solid/coherent precip swirl area, as tiny as it was! Overall radar presentation improved *after* landfall! So the brown ocean effect, or the "tropical landscape effect," does not tell the entire story I think. When upper level conditions improve markedly at and after landfall, this positive offset can intensifies the TC, or slow weakening. In Edouard's case, since it was a mdt TS at landfall, it has not much to "lose," so to speak, say compared to a Cat 3 landfall. Yes, sfc winds will come down regardless b/c of friction, but system itself structurally improves quite a bit, and I think this is what happened to Edouard. I'll give some actual historical examples in the next post.

Live stream from my truck

That was on me for not paying attention to the height lines Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Documentary about the 1938 hurricane

looks like we'll have fall weather maybe by November lol

WHERE IS OKLAHOMA

Nats lose. O's lose. Commanders look like shit. Guess we'll see about the Ravens. Hey - how bout the Wizards this year! lol - I actually think it's going to be a fun year. Can the Caps should be pretty solid.

Radar is lit up

1954 is the hottest start to a September we've ever had. 4 of the 6 hottest September days ever recorded in Knoxville happened in the first 10 days of 1954, all of them were over 100 degrees. 15 days of the month were 90+ and 4 were 100+. October saw a mix of warm and cold but it snowed on Halloween. Winter was BN Dec, BN Jan, AN Feb.

Looks like 9/2 is ~+0.40... should come in ~-0.10 for MJJAS. That would actually be our 2nd lowest NAO Winter in 14 years (CPC). I'll take the over on that (CPC), although there could be some ridging around 80-90N.

You can see that NF cold pool go bye-bye, as I was expecting earlier this summer.

30 Day change:

August should be out early next week.

Terrible

August isn't quite out yet...May-July: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

Those Detroit storms literally just popped up out of nowhere. Turning into a Flash Food situation even (not necessarily a bad thing with how dry that area's been).

@Stebois getting rocked tonight

Long range pattern is and has already established itself. It’s clear and evident but he explosive development of storms. And it’s been that way for quite some time. Mild and dry winter here we come!

Unbelievable, half of October got punted... Are we really going to get rug pulled instead of the niño kicking in?

It's complex for Lowell's track. Karina moving into to area N of the islands will likely play a role here as to how strong it may be when it get closer to the trough to the NW, and how it influences the depth and position of the main upper-level trough itself! It is quite a strong 200 mb trough that develops NNW of the islands, but it only digs so far S, and at first it is positively titled and then goes negative, but at that time, it lifting is N rapidly, and then Lowell gets left behind well NW of the islands and starts moving W again. And the ensembles reflect this w/ a recurve path NNE and then it goes back NW. Where will the inflection point be!? Given the intensity of Lowell, 200 mb flow is good to use for general steering flow in this case. This is not like Iwa in 1982 or Iniki in 1992. Those were picked up by strong troughs to the W of islands much farther S, so their tracks were more straight-shooter, acceleration N going ET fairly quickly after passing the islands. Dot's track in 1959 is not the same setup either, and the 1871 estimated Cat 3 hit the eastern side of the Big Island coming in from the, so no real good analogs here when it comes to very close passes or direct hits on HI for hurricanes. Has social media latched on to this threat yet? You know how that goes! @weatherwiz has a great post recently on the Edouard thread about wishcasting, some trying everything and anything to make Edouard to RI. It did start that process. but it ran out of time, and the finer details looking at it evolution in real time that were fascinating in itself were overlooked (not here, elsewhere). Beyond the actual meteorology, I often think about the social and economic factors/impacts. The Lowell threat to HI that is starting to ramp up now about 6 days before any sig impacts, it going to hurt travel/vacation to the state. And say the western part of the state gets hit, the hype/doom will be so intense, ppl are going to think he entire island chain was devastated, and that has huge impacts well down the road for tourism and the like.