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Forgot to post this from the other day, but WPC winter desk OPEN FOR BUSINESS

The 12Z Euro for the “pumpkin”: no TC til ~192 hours when it’s 1005 mb that’s ~125 miles N of PR. But it’s already recurving sharply then and never gets stronger than 1005 mb til it gets to 30N way out in the middle of the ocean. ———— 2PM TWO up to 0/50:2. Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.Forecaster Berg

Back to 73 / 48

CPC is hinting at a potential series of CAD events on their 3-4 week outlook

Ended up making it down to a cold 41 this morning. Their are a lot of posting about the warmth coming and never-ending summer. I think we will warm up but I don't think we torch. The pattern has been volatile past day 5 so im taking the Cansips and the Euro Weeklies with a grain of salt.

Well played, sir.

TBH, I do the opposite...my final forecast compoisite will be derived from 1951-2010 climo, but I will label it as 1991-2020 in an effort to account for CC. I started doing that last year.

The weather through Monday looks absolutely stunning. No other way to say it.

Regarding the pumpkin: 12Z UKMET: 3rd in a row with TCG from this; similar TCG to prior run but moves NW instead of WNW and thus ends up further N than prior run although not quite as far N as two runs ago; Also this one has it become declassified at 168: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 54.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 17.8N 56.3W 1009 36 1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 19.9N 59.3W 1010 30 0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.8N 61.2W 1009 29 1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

actually not that bad... +1-2 with near normal precip is something i'll take

Wow check out Mammoth. They did get snow last night, its 31 and snowing. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

Frost on the pumpkin?

This is a simple forecast. The entire sub is deep purple. You're gonna need a bigger snow shovel.

And acorns

Yes.

They'll post the Mascot out of sheer desperation and despair.

Are they still tracking squirrels in the New England subforum?

My husband is 20 years younger, I can't handle anything more And, I may be gayer than D.I.T.s jogging shorts... but I'm a one man guy

AccuWx going below normal snow and above average temps for all of I-95. Yikes.

I agree 100% if someone is doing what you’re doing. But just to make sure it’s clear, JB has only 50% of his 10 winter weights within 1991+ and he has 1950-1 as a 30% weight.

Fwiw from our friends at Accuwx.

since I almost exclusively use analogs since 2000 with only a few in the 90s, I think the 91-20 climo is okay to use

Accuwx

Latest 75 on record Tony? When is the earliest (February?)

The next key warm stat at JFK is the Dec, 7: 75 (1998) record high.