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Made a PDF report of winter storms from WV during that winter. Looks like some moisture bomb gulf lows translated to major winter storms for the ridges. Should bring some solace to know that even if we completely torch this winter snow, and maybe a blizzard, will only be a drive away. SED_events.pdf

That's what I said in January of 2015. Has that familiar feel. Never ending.

Nice envelope to get the bananas and tangerines in for next year. Ground is certainly moist enough.

Would you take the over or under for an 80 degree Halloween?

I think the PDO will move toward neutral as the fall and early winter progress. An active NPac storm track should foster some cooler water at the surface.

Yeah I may pass you on storm total. It’s been a steady sheet rain or drizzle for most of the day. Love it. Currently 52.5° +RA and 1.56”

You can get away with lower temps (50's is as low as you want to go), but Dry and Calm are mandatory. Bugs are the biggest problem along with anything seeding out. I actually prefer fall for painting.

Congrats just getting out there is half the battle!

7.81" is the new total here now.

yep, hoping for a stretch of AN weather next week, but it doesn't look like it's coming. I've custom ordered paint for my 3 older vehicles to touch up some rust repairs I've been making. Need a few days of warm, 70+ dry weather for the paint cure properly, and that doesn't look likely at this point in time.

So its like which years had the most similar weather pattern to 2026 spring+summer? just so i understand

Polo is approaching landfall. Shear is also affecting Polo, but it is now better aligned with the hurricane's vector of motion, which should mitigate any significant weakening prior to landfall. Intense convection is currently firing in the eastern and northern semicircles of the eyewall and spilling over the eye, giving an assymetric structure. However, we're close enough to landfall that it will likely remain officially a Category 3 landfall at this point since the last recon mission confirmed 100 kts. Morgerman is headed to the community of Las Barrancas, which still looks like a close point of landfall. If he nails the eye, he should get enough data to help confirm.

Yeah. We are not that crazy. Just a local rec travel team.

Anything but that.

1.63” for the day and event total of 2.48”.

His forecasts include Enso consideration but it's mainly based on actual weather during this calendar year. The exact formula/considerations he has never disclosed.

Dendy’s gonna end up well over 2” from this and crush me. What a wet last few months there

wait 1962 and 2012 are not el ninos? I have doubts we would get a pattern like them if it was a weaker nino maybe but i would expect the super nino to overwhelm the pattern in the seasonal mean largely

it's been in the charts for days yup. i looks shorter lived, however. Pretty significant +PNA/+PNAP circulation mode sets up according to tele's and ext ens. We'll see

Increased shear over Nolo put a halt on Category 5 being attained. Peaked at 135 kts.

major step in death just occurred this hour mid and upper level cloud elements are moving E, N of the llv center...which means it's not long even vertically stack - going the other way... Rad also in process of collapsing ...interesting to watch it weaken everywhere all at once like that. heh.. I think I'm good with it. Time to move on.

huh

I figured the mts must have done better, but not living here then I didn't know for certain. I'm not worried about the warming planet if we have the right pattern/track. 50+ years ago (as in the early and mid 70's) were horrendous with many snow to ip or mainly zr/ip storms. The only 6"+ storm I recall during that period was in 12/73, and that switched over to ip/zr before ending south of BWI. It wasn't until the NE blizzard in early 2/78 that BWI got close to a 10" snowfall. Of all things, it was the mother of all Miller B's too. But I agree 100% with your earlier post that it's the -PDO state that's killing us. I do think, however, this Niño is going to shake things up in the Pacific and would expect a shift away from a -PDO in the means very soon, as in next year or the year after.