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Perhaps we could see our first 95° readings of the season in late June if the WAR and ridge out West link up. But the wild card will probably be if we can get a break in this wet pattern. If it stays too wet, then we could only top out in the low 90s. But a few days of full sun and drier conditions could easily result in mid 90s at the usual warm spots. Ridges trying to link up in late June

Heaviest rains now forecasted south into the MD/VA area this is majority Sat - Mon;

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2017) NYC: 93 (2017) LGA: 96 (2017) JFK: 92 (2017) Lows: EWR: 47 (1951) NYC: 48 (1979) LGA: 49 (1979) JFK: 49 (1980) Historical: 1881 - Severe thunderstorms spawned more than half a dozen tornadoes in the Lower Missouri Valley. Five of the tornadoes touched down near Saint Joseph MO. In south central Kansas a tornado nearly wiped out the town of Floral. Hail and high winds struck Iowa and southern Minnesota. In Minnesota, Blue Earth City reported five inches of rain in one hour. (David Ludlum) 1885: A tornado in Iowa blew part of a train off the tracks, injuring three passengers. Three coaches and a baggage car were lifted into the air and onto a field. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1899: New Richmond, Wisconsin: A killer tornado rampages through New Richmond, Wisconsin, 114 people die, many attending an outdoor circus. 1915: An estimated F4 tornado moved northeast from northwest of Waterville, Iowa crossing the Mississippi River two miles south of Ferryville, Wisconsin. A man and his daughter were killed in one of three homes that were obliterated southwest of "Heytman," a small railroad station on the Mississippi River. 60 buildings and eight homes were destroyed in Wisconsin. This tornado caused approximately $200,000 in damage. In addition to this tornado, another estimated F4 tornado moved northeast across Fayette and Clayton Counties in northeast Iowa. One farm was devastated, the house and barn leveled. Heavy machinery was thrown 300 yards. Clothing was carried two miles. 1947 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of southern and central Wyoming, and gave many places their heaviest and latest snow of record. Totals included 18.4 inches at Lander, 8.7 inches at Cheyenne, and 4.5 inches at Casper. (11th-12th) (The Weather Channel) 1948: The Columbia River Basin flood peaked on this date in the Northwest. The flood produced the highest water level in the basin since the flood there in 1894. The damage estimate for the 1948 flood was $101 million, and 75 lives were lost. 1956: The upper Midwest was in the midst of a six-day stretch of 90 degree plus temperatures. The high of 97° at Chicago, IL and 95° at Rockford, IL set daily high temperature records. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1959: A heavy thunderstorm was accompanied by a small tornado at Celeron near Jamestown, NY and gave a two inch rainfall in 75 minutes in Colden, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: Tropical Storm Abby moved northeast and crossed central Florida, briefly reaching hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical storm then moved along the coast of Florida and into Georgia, then made a loop as a tropical depression through the Carolinas, moving south to the North Carolina/South Carolina coast. Locations that received record daily rainfalls included: Philadelphia, PA: 3.05 inches, Reagan National Airport in Washington, DC : 2.23 inches, Dulles Airport at Sterling, VA: 1.88 inches, Wilmington, DE: 1.75 inches, Newark, NJ: 1.74 inches and Williamsport, PA: 1.30 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1969 - Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel) 1978: Lightning killed a 14 year old boy running home to avoid the rain at Lauderhill, FL. The lightning struck a pine tree near the boy and severely burned his legs and knocked his shoes off. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983 - The state of Utah was beseiged by floods and mudslides. Streets in downtown Salt Lake City were sandbagged and turned into rivers of relief. The town of Thistle was completely inundated as a mudslide made a natural dam. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced softball size hail around Fremont and Ames, and 3.5 inches of rain in less than one hour. Four and a half inches in less than an hour caused flooding around Ithica, NE. A tornado destroyed a mobile home near Broken Bow, NE, injuring both occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville with a reading of 40 degrees. Drought conditions continued to intensify across the eastern half of the nation. Rainfall at Nashville, TN, was running 12.5 inches below normal. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Tennessee Valley to the Central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening, and produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, and there were 164 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Amarillo, TX, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Denton TX. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Tucumcari NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press).

Go wonder ...the operational Euro canceled the heat look. I don't know it's hard to get a bead on that D6 to 13 range. There's a low amplitude -PNA which seems to be in spatial conflict/destructive interference with this unrelenting non-linearity of +PNAP ... Quick comment on that... uuusually, the Pacific North American index is tightly correlated to the Perennial North America Pattern - but since last November this has not been the case... Really rather remarkable, the longevity of that uncoupled statistic. It gave as a colder winter than recent years, while the neg interference of it all ...stopped big stormy snows. Now we're seeing the summer afflicted with fast moving fronts and heat suppression tendencies ( so far..). Anyway, the telecons have a sustaining -PNA with a sustaining, albeit modest, +NAO... with cyclic EPO dumps ... heat can certainly manifest over eastern mid latitudes of the continent given that teleconnector spread. The question is, will it? You can go by the verifications - they're going to be above normal if not by whole degrees ... by decimals. That's no related to this... The EPS still has at least a flat ridge cutting E in its ensemble mean D7 to 12 ...

That’s Scooters house except he’s the one turning furniture over

71 / 62 - could be the warmest day so far for many and the 2nd for some and first for others 90 degree day. A brief summer blast, before the next front approaches and linger over or near by with 96 hours of mainly cloudy and around 1 - 1.5 inches of rain, which trended more south with the recent forecacts. Clouds could arrive as early as Friday late morning and with any hope or luck we can trend drier and maybe get pokes of sun on Saturday. Warmer / drier by the 17th with heat building north and east by the 20th with next shot at some heat. Looks overall warm - hot and perhaps wetter as center of the ridge looks to center just west initially. 6/12 : Hottest day of the next 7 6/14 - 6/16 : Cloudy / wet cooler 6/17 - 6/19 : warmer 6/20 - beyond

The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. Plus the recent very strong El Niño in 23-24 couldn’t shift the La Niña background as we saw the record WPAC forcing near the MC for an El Niño. The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons. But instead the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times. It matters.. the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am. The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here" ... GFS is better on Sunday ... The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off. Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain. Temps held to 70.

Never heard of that... Even if we did warm ENSO at all for next winter, it would make no sense to incorporate warm ENSO analogs for this summer and fall.

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:

Nice! The rainy weekends did it in for him, said he wants a weekend every day to actually experience some nice weather.

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO @40/70 Benchmark “Potential Link between PDO and Solar Cycles: Some studies suggest a possible connection between the PDO and solar activity on decadal timescales. The 11-year solar cycle may modulate the PDO, influencing its effect on atmospheric circulation. Research suggests that the PDO phase can amplify or dampen the atmospheric response to solar variability. For example, a study found that the intensification of the polar vortex during solar maximum conditions is significantly stronger in the negative phase of the PDO.”

I think that and the PDO will flip around the turn of the decade....I know Chris disagrees, but we will know within a few years. My guess is the debate will never end...certain folks will find a way to dovetail what ever happens into their own conceptualization of CC.

May be that will be the -AMO in this new climate we are in....never know....

Great back-loaded winter in 2012-2013, but I'm sure that its an impossible feat in the new, warmer climate.

Short on info:

No, I agree with you. I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this...... isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

It’s the same old PAC background state we’ve been in for years now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Every time we think it’s about to change, it doesn’t. The persistence has been nothing short of astounding

It is nice to have last years Westy back.

Solar by the numbers. The solar age is here. https://aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/the-coming-solar-era-in-numbers

8 more weeks until the average temps start falling back. July and August are the worst. Bees, snakes, mosquitoes, ticks, and spiders rule the next 2 months. Who said Summer is fun?

The storm formation and movement is an interesting scenario for this area. It's very similar to the summer monsoon pattern in Arizona. Storms from in the mountains north of Phoenix, and then slowly drift south towards the metro area. Often times out there, however, that drift is new storms forming on the outflow boundaries, but still...

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-130845- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 439 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms containing small hail and gusty winds will likely form across the Northern Mountains of the state this afternoon and drift slowly south across the Central Mountains, Middle Susquehanna Valley and Western Poconos late today and this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Several rounds of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will occur Friday night through Sunday and could result in an increasing threat for flash flooding of small streams, creeks and poor drainage areas. The greatest risk for flash flooding will likely be late Saturday and Sunday. The southern portion of the state and areas of complex terrain will be especially vulnerable given enhanced rapid runoff with heavy rainfall.