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still enough time for anything to happen in regards to the track of the LP IMO - Upton and Mount Holly leaving their options open - greatest risk with this is coastal flooding

Euro AI

Euro AI

ok my complex is gone. WE did good rain last evening. No more bitchin from me. We picked up .57" here. Ill take it hapily. Been cloudy all day now the sun has popped out some. See if we can create some more instability to get more storms

damn, still cheaper than fuel oil. One cord of hardwood has approximately 25MBTUs, $550 200 gallons of fuel oil is approximately 26MBTUs, $1,200 A fuel oil fired furnace is probably ~10% more efficient that a well performing wood stove, but still, wood looks like a good deal even at $550 per cord.

FYI, here is the most recent OHC map from Rosenstiel. Polo is currently positioned over a deep, warm eddy. The 26° isotherm is around 70-80 meters (250 ft) in depth.

Couple of rounds of storms last night and temps are in the 70s currently. Finally close to normal.

My favorite pic so far at Yosemite

Yup, Just a total wipeout of all trees over six feet tall.

A Super Storm…..

1.41" and counting

Yeah I think you're right, it's gotta be some weird stuff going on with the IR lamps. I didn't see a temp lower than 50F all night. A man can dream.

Ukie looks similar to CMC/Gfs

its only 90 hours away - in another day and a half we will be tracking it with the Mesoscale models

What are the Super Intelligence models showing?

Also, regardless of upwelling, this like all TCs removes heat from the upper layers of the ocean (potential energy) since that heat is converted to kinetic energy (conservation of energy). So that, alone, should always induce its own cooling even without upwelling per se. And a very strong one like Polo should be taking heat from the ocean at a more rapid rate than a weaker one. That, alone, often brings the SSTs in and near the center down 1-2C.

On our way to Albuquerque. Left in grey rain but finally got out of the cloud deck. Over KY currently and still a thick cloud deck. Very bumpy ride. Could feel the winds on take off from BWI. Hope we get some clearing.

I mean, we do want our weenie models to show big hits. Drunken runs of 970mb lows ripping down all the vegetation from the cape to the Hudson valley.

I understand that Oktoberfest is a late September event, but some local breweries are putting it on tap way too early. It’s such a great fall beer and where I work, it ran out before fall even started.

In one fell swoop, @CoastalWx could get rid of his "imagined" Weymouth drought! LOL.

A lot. I'm guessing minimum of $550.00 if you are close to the site. Likely cost you a lot more.

26C north almost to the benchmark. That's why I was thinking warm core. Regardless, I'm surprised it's not even mention of worthiness to the NHC.

And that it sucks bad too.

A batch of heavy showers has popped up, which lead to mainly heavy rain starting at 12:50PM. It is continuing to rain at a moderate rate and this is adding up nicely. 1/2”++ has already fallen. The showers are moving SSW. Before today, I had received 2” MTD. So, these are beneficial rains.

the location of the HP in Canada is what will decide the track of the LP - the HP on the 6Z Euro-AI is a few hundred miles north northeast of the GFS and Canadian location - makes a difference EC-AIFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits - go to hour 120