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HRRR shows it Putnam CT to Boston this run.. it will waffle.. instead of 2-3" that screw zone will be half inch to an inch

Considering just about all guidance has 0.2" liquid or more across NNJ and SENY and a snow-supporting model profile, those WPC snow maps look low. You would seemingly have to go against model consensus to come up with those probabilities. Or maybe they are heavily skewed towards the GEFS. Either way, the lack of granularity across our region makes it only modestly useful.

It could be anywhere in that area equal chances..

I have a <3 for all the west-facing ridgelines near those ORH hills and up into NH.

sweet spot!

This was the sunset yesterday with the lights from Pats Peak visible to the right:

Steve D, enough said....

HRRR shifted south

No changes in thinking at this time. With marginal temperatures and light precipitation rates, most of the New York City area will probably see little more than a coating. The City will likely see temperatures remain above freezing for most or all of the storm. A trace of snow cannot be ruled out for parts of the City. Nearly three-quarters of events with temperatures above freezing saw no measurable snowfall while just one-in-six had 1" or more in Central Park's climate record. It is possible that the precipitation could mix with or end as some light rain or drizzle in and around New York City. The distant northern and western suburbs continue to have the best chance of seeing 1"-2", as readings will likely be near or perhaps even a little below freezing during much of the event. The latest WPC maps for 24-hour probabilities of 1" or more and 2" or more snowfall are below:

Sure...reasonable.

One thing that throws a monkey wrench into assessing vs climo is the potential ENSO impact though. I believe that La Nina's have a tendency to be more front loaded and can often be quite toasty in February (keeping in mind that "frontloaded" is relative; just because December is the least bad doesn't mean it's good.) On the other hand a good El Nino might be just hitting it's stride at the start of February. I currently have no idea how impactful or not the fading Nina is going to be going forward. If it couples strongly, then there is reason to be concerned about late Jan and Feb.

It’s ok to say Tolland if that’s what you think. But I haven’t seen anything that shows that

That guidance shows it essentially neutralizing by January 5th...pop a +TNH mid-month....done.

You get the idea.. Generally NW of Waterbury and SW of ORH would be the area most at risk to be skunked in between

Yes, there is.

Snowy tuesday morning…good enough.

most of guidance looks like ORH/ RI east may have issues . Or maybe doesn’t happen at all . Every map has it on n some degree in that axis

91 and RT 2 are perpendicular.......how can you be between them?

There is no evidence for a +PNA in January

MJO is in day 3 (12/17-19) of the 3rd phase 8 of this month:

Most likely area to get the shaft is between 91 in CT and RT 2 in Mass.. Most guidance has it redeveloping nicely around ORH and points NE...

I must have missed him discussing the TNH+. He seemed oddly quiet in early December. I believe he was having some health issues so I ascribed it to that. Maybe it just wasn't popping up on my feed for some reason.

we have folks that cancel winter during the prior summer. That's routine 'round these parts lol.

sometimes he lets the desire to troll cloud his reasoning.

It will be over Corey