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Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

That's relief compared to what I've been paying. Gas was $4.89 at peak in SLK this summer and I paid $4.59 there yesterday. Brutal, brutal stuff.

Thanks, Charlie, for posing that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW. But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back? Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

One gas station up the road went from $3.66 to $3.99 in a few days...if even a few days

I dumped the latest data and asked AI to summarize: (will do August numbers when they come in, once that happens ill repost) The latest ENSO data continue to strongly support a major El Niño analog package for 2026–27. July 2026 monthly values show Niño 3.4 at +1.73°C, Niño 3 at +2.30°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.91°C, and Niño 4 at +1.42°C. This means the event is not just east-Pacific warm; it also has strong basinwide support. The atmospheric side is also very strongly coupled, with SOI at -4.00 and MEI.v2 at +2.41 for July 2026. ONI is already +1.40 through June, RONI is +1.34 for July, and the subsurface/thermocline indicators are supportive, including strong upper-ocean heat content and a much deeper-than-normal thermocline in the east. Compared with past El Niño events, the best current analogs remain the major-event years: 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83. The 1997 analog still looks best for the explosive east-Pacific component, especially with the very warm Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 regions. The 2015 analog is also very strong because 2026 now has a more basinwide look, with Niño 4 also quite warm. 1982 remains a strong analog for the eventual major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, even though it was not as warm in July as 2026 is now. Secondary analogs include 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, and 1957–58. By category, the top SST-structure analogs are 1997, 2015, 2023, 1972, and 1982. For Niño 3.4 intensity and projected peak, the best analogs are 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. For the far-eastern Pacific / Niño 1+2 component, the best analogs are 1997, 2023, 2015, 1972, and 1965. For Niño 4 / basinwide support, the best matches are 2015, 2002, 2023, 1997, and 2009. For atmospheric coupling using SOI and MEI, the best analogs are 1997, 2015, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Overall, the current blend favors 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 1982–83 third, then 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, 1957–58, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10. Parameter Latest 2026 Reading Period What It Shows Niño 3.4 +1.73°C July 2026 Strong central/east-central El Niño Niño 3 +2.30°C July 2026 Very strong east-central warming Niño 1+2 +2.91°C July 2026 Very strong far-eastern Pacific warming Niño 4 +1.42°C July 2026 Basinwide support, not just coastal/eastern ONI +1.40°C June 2026 El Niño established on 3-month basis RONI +1.34°C July 2026 Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal MEI.v2 +2.41 July 2026 Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal SOI -4.00 July 2026 Very strong atmospheric El Niño response OLR -1.20 July 2026 Enhanced central/eastern Pacific convection Heat Content +2.48 July 2026 Strong subsurface warm support 200mb Zonal Winds -6.79 July 2026 Upper-level easterly anomaly support 20°C Thermocline Depth, 95W +56.28 m July 2026 Much deeper-than-normal eastern thermocline Overall Rank Analog Match Level Main Reason 1 1997–98 Best overall Best blend of rapid onset, east-Pacific warmth, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory 2 2015–16 Very high Best basinwide/intensity match, especially with strong Niño 4 support 3 1982–83 High Excellent major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, though weaker July SSTs 4 1972–73 High Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog 5 2023–24 Moderate-high Excellent recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling at the same stage 6 1965–66 Moderate-high Good east-Pacific and SOI secondary analog 7 1957–58 Moderate-high Strong historical El Niño, useful secondary analog 8 1991–92 Moderate Decent coupled warm-event analog, but weaker structure 9 2002–03 Moderate More central/basinwide, weaker eastern-Pacific match 10 2009–10 Lower-moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development/coupling Bottom line: the latest readings strengthen the case that 2026–27 belongs in the major El Niño analog group. The strongest overall comparisons are 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83, with 1972–73 as the best classic eastern-Pacific secondary analog. What makes 2026 stand out is the combination of very warm Niño 1+2, strong Niño 3.4, strong Niño 4, a very negative SOI, and MEI.v2 above +2. That is a much stronger coupled signal than 2023 had at the same point.

Yep. We see this plenty of times--satellite looks good but when recon gets in there it's still a bit of a mess. This one is on its way to being a TC, but probably not quite there/borderline. Interested in what they find on the eastern flank & in that possible center.

It's hard to parse out what did what and how much, in the run up to this specific states and scenarios. In considering France's issues with agriculture, this was likely set into motion over decades when looking at this as an epistemic/a-priori approach. I'm not personally with any confidence that this specific 'onsetting' warm ENSO has much to do with it frankly. Quick primer ( I get it that you know this.. just for the general reader). As we know El Ninos typically begin to formulate during summers, then maturing during autumn and early winters. This one appears to fit that climatology so far... More importantly, during these prefaces of onset the wholesale seasonal gradients are still flaccid. That's a crucial consideration in the presumptions. Because... the gradient determines where the jet structures will ultimately bias; that becomes the El Nino characterization if/when the El Nino is sufficiently coupled. As an aside, the warming total atmosphere associated to CC is limiting the coupling. Why? because the gradient of winter is being lifted to higher latitudes - that is distancing that latitude (geometrically), so the coupling is getting amorphously defined. Enters RONI... Relative ONI is pure statistical approach to the resulting slipping/lowering observed effectivity. The 2nd aspect that makes the causal parsing a challenge is that the heat and drought has been an improving frequency and specter for decades, doing so regardless of a ENSO variances in either direction over that time. Having said all that, here's where there's an angle: I think there is a gray area in the completer understanding as to what actually triggers the modal oscillation of ENSO. In that area of speculation, conjecture and hypothesis, it may yet be shown that the circulation modes outside the tropics are somehow transitively being causing the tropical wind patterns to occasionally reverse. Like the noise over time organizes into a sinusoidal harmonic feedback, at a whole-Earth atmosphere scale. If something like that were taking place then it would be entirely possible/reasonable that machinery 'switching gears' did something to specifically enhance France's agricultural problems now. But, since the specter of heat and drought goes back years, parsing out what's to blame ...mm intuitively argues it's just a CC related matter in general. At some point, if the CC continues to change .. it may herald in a new behavior there and abroad. It's areas of the curve favor a phenomenon typology.

Looks pretty broad/open on south side. That mid level feature looks more impressive than what’s under the hood. This is why NHC waits for solid data before designating systems even close to land. Could see PTC at 11 tho

We've gotten names for less I kid, I kid...

It's usually difficult for us not to get at least one day in when we have these type of setups. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to see play out, its been a heavy mix on how tomorrow evolves. A good part of CT may end up right along the instability gradient

Just don’t know what to do with all this winning

A light breeze based on that pass

Gas prices jumped considerably this morning. Winning.

One of the odd years PHL had less 90 degree days than northern areas maybe the one exception for NYC sites. EWR has had more than PHL or equal on many occasions. Year EWR PHL LGA NYC JFK 2025 39 37 26 14 15 2024 33 32 21 21 6 2023 29 24 16 12 8 2022 49 48 30 25 16 2021 41 37 25 17 10 2020 31 36 34 20 12 2019 27 35 26 15 7 2018 36 30 38 21 8 2017 22 26 17 13 9 2016 40 46 32 22 15 2015 35 37 20 20 12 2014 15 19 6 8 2 2013 25 20 21 17 9 2012 33 39 28 19 16 2011 31 33 19 20 13 2010 54 55 48 37 32 2009 14 15 8 7 6 2008 22 23 19 12 9 2007 21 24 23 10 7 2006 27 27 22 8 12 2005 37 29 30 23 17 2004 13 9 7 2 1 2003 20 23 17 8 12 2002 41 46 35 32 21 2001 22 23 17 15 8 2000 16 10 12 7 6 1999 33 35 26 27 14 1998 21 31 11 8 5 1997 20 20 17 12 10 1996 9 7 6 3 4 1995 33 49 23 29 15 1994 39 36 22 19 7 1993 49 41 26 39 13 1992 22 14 9 9 6 1991 41 53 34 39 17 1990 26 23 10 12 6 1989 27 19 17 16 9 1988 43 49 26 32 14 1987 37 31 19 22 11 1986 22 33 9 11 8 1985 11 12 8 9 5 1984 22 7 9 10 13 1983 40 41 31 36 26 1982 12 12 6 11 4 1981 21 15 15 16 11 1980 27 36 22 32 11

No surprise. The MCS appears to be drilling down at that location with a very small vmax underway. We may have a depression. We'll see what the NHC does. I imagine they would at least go with a PTC at 11AM/10AM CT.

Must've been absolutely frigid up at SLK.

It might be in a SUPER Nino

Yeah Thursday beat potential but tomorrow will have some. CT favored.

Iirc a good portion of that Feb was a straight up torch in much of sne with a few days topping 70. I remember taking the dog outside late at night and was shocked how pleasant it felt. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a few good surges of warmth next winter with the way things look to be setting up, at least south of Worcester.

We made it to the last day of August. I hope someone is ready to fire up the Fall/Winter thread tomorrow. Maybe it'll bring good luck!

Warm, humid with some showers possible for much of the week before we turn much cooler and clearer by the end of the work week and the start of Labor Day Weekend. The warmest day of the week looks to be tomorrow with highs well into the 80's. The best chance of rain will be tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Weekly:

Warm, humid with some showers possible for much of the week before we turn much cooler and clearer by the end of the work week and the start of Labor Day Weekend. The warmest day of the week looks to be tomorrow with highs well into the 80's. The best chance of rain will be tomorrow night into Wednesday.