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Hmmm, Uncertainty… you don’t say

Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO.

Snow makes the early sunsets much more tolerable for sure. There is nothing like it being dark out at 4:30 with heavy snow falling and just the quietness outside with nobody driving. One thing that doesn't bother me either is the stars. Last night I was outside with the dog at like 6:15 and the sky was perfectly clear with plenty of stars overhead and the stars were bright and vibrant. I also did get a little sad though thinking back to the summer when it was 6:15 and just sitting outside drinking a beer. I think the key though with early sunsets and the seasonal depression stuff is just trying to stay busy...which is hard when you're cooped up inside because there isn't much to do outside. Early sunsets never really used to bother me until maybe the last 4-5 years and I've thought why that is...figured maybe just getting older but then it dawned on me. I used to be very active doing stuff...had season tickets to the Wolf Pack and would go to road games that they would play locally sometimes there could be like 3 games a week. Plus school kept me busy...then I finished school, and it was just work and being lazy. But being back in school + work...don't have time to notice it being dark

EPS agrees.

I enjoy the early sunsets, gives that holiday season vibe, the darkness driving to work at 5am sucks though, the sun helps wake me up.

Ya I get that…some snow would take the edge off that as you say.

I do hear you on the sunlight. At least have it light until 6. Getting dark at 4 sucks.

Hopefully that’s the seasonal snowfall.

Evenings just feel like forever cooped up inside the house before bedtime. I loathe TV so I don’t have much to do except troll here. I try to do some yardwork and the sun is behind the trees by 130pm. There’s no real imminent winter threats yet so it’s just a colder, darker version of fall. Give me some UVB.

Lots of uncertainty..what else is new. But with the potential SSW it’ll be some time until we know how that affects things(if at all) down the line ultimately.

Lol…Not happening boys.

20 for you and 70 for Wolfie?

@40/70 Benchmark Would love December, 1996. That was when the famous Jim Cantore 4 inches per hour thundersnow storm occurred in Worchester, Mass

Some of the models have quite a thermal gradient near the region in the extended. Usually we’re on the cold side of things in wedgie land even if it doesn’t necessarily mean snow.

But mornings keep getting later unfortunately…but I get what you mean. Sunsets, sunrises don’t bother me at all. The early darkness is comforting to me. But I understand how it affects some.

There seems to be a big perception that most of December will be wintry into and thru the holidays .

19 more days until the sunsets get later. I’m literally counting down the days.

Who hacked this account?

Low of 41 with .01” of rain. Madison was our first ever road trip many moons ago, loved it. Last year we were in Morgantown for the West Virginia game and I met Joe Calhoun at the hotel bar, our long-time local meteorologist on WGAL. Great guy.

Hopefully 11/20 to 1/20 flies by as quickly as the previous two. We're almost there!

42 at home on a gloomy day. Day 2 of new job safety training. I coukd get used to working from home lol

Late last November into early December the EPS and GEFS were forecasting the +PNA -EPO to extend through the holidays. But they greatly underestimated the Pacific Jet and we got the big jet extension which lead to the record +EPO and warmer pattern later in the month. I was highlighting the warmer risks back in the threads going into early December last year. Then we got the big January suppression pattern with the record snowstorm on the Gulf Coast. There was a kicker coming into Western Canada at the time that contributed to that suppression. The MJO 8 was really brief in phase 8 on the RMMS last January but we had lingering forcing on the VP charts near the Maritime Continent which may have prevented the Pacific Jet from fully relaxing like our last successful MJO 8 in January 2022. Then in early February the extended EPS was trying to forecast a snowy gradient pattern near NYC. I mentioned that the gradient would probably shift to the north. Then we got the record Great Lakes cutter with the -5SD Greenland block which linked with the Southeast ridge and Toronto hot the record snows. Since the models underestimated the Southeast ridge again. This is why I don’t have any confidence when models show big patterns in the week 2 and week 3 time ranges. If a big pattern shows up under 120 hrs, then I will get on board.

I have been seeing Penn Dot shuffling some plow trucks on flat beds lately. Few heading up 15 north. 40 degrees and a little bit of fog.

Yes. There were near misses.