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An oil industry myth. The bigger the wind turbine the faster it pays out the energy needed to make it. Only 64 days for a 3.4 MW turbine https://pure.sruc.ac.uk/en/publications/life-cycle-analysis-of-the-embodied-carbon-emissions-from-14-wind/ https://www.vestas.com/en/sustainability/environment/energy-payback

Yea Ray, DT really thought December was going to be a big +PNA month….

As long as Thanksgiving is good so that the balloons can fly high.

IF wind advisory Fri, think it will be mostly 5A-Noon. No thread on this til at least Wed...too marginal.

I'm interested to see if DT starts to sweat when he releases the this week in WX video.

oh, wow thanks. This site is almost identical to cornells climodv2 that i've been using for snowfall amounts for maps since it pulls from coop,cocorahs and climo sites but this is even nicer and it tells you what the source is! thats awesome, i think ill switch to this one.

I'm sure my forecast will go astray at some point, but I've learned so much about the strat this summer and fall.

6z GFS shows 2 chances of snow this run between the 4th & 6th. Enjoy it for 6 hours… but hopefully this is the beginning of tracking season.

I don’t want to jinx you but it’s looking like a very good call on your part with the SPV, along with the increasingly likely flip to RNA/-PNA in December Edit: Also have to give credit to @bluewave with the -PNA December call (looks likely now)

Problem is that today not enough people are concerned with thinking critically.... and just want to generate clicks on social media while touching themselves to red colors near the North Pole.

Thanks for the kind words. I really enjoy our discussions over the years. My guess is that the reason for both the CCKW and MJO activity following the pattern we have been describing is the extensive +28 to +30C warm pool near the 6-7 zones on the chart that you posted. So this has been causing the looping activity on the RMM charts that we have been frequently observing over recent years. The CCKW and MJO interaction could also be why we are seeing these stronger Southeast ridge patterns than just using a straight MJO 7 composite. I was hinting at this in our recent conversation on the MJO 7 composites. Perhaps these composites lose some effectiveness since the sample size of events is smaller and merged with the CCKW interactions which has been more recent as the WPAC warm pool has been expanding. So when the forcing stalls closer to the 6-7 regions, it delays the passage into Phase 8 like we have seen so often since February 2022. Plus the continuing 6-7 area convection interferes with the typical MJO 8 composites like last January when the Pacific Jet remained rather strong due to the lingering forcing there in concert with the very strong SST gradient over the midlatitude Pacific to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

From xmACIS. We're years away from the 3" record (289 days vs. record of 1,110 days); 6" record (1,395 days vs. record of 2,572 days); and, 10" record (1,757 days vs. record of 3,266 days). https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

There is a reason most +TNH reflection events occur in January/February, and major SSWs that include a zonal wind reversal are exceedingly rare in December. It's not a coincidence at all.

It was clear as day looking at analogs that this would be a reflection event...should get mild for early January, and then go +TNH with a stout PV by mid month. The real SSW should come after that...probably second week of February.

Looks like the cool down keeps getting bumped just to the horizon of the 10 day forecast and not lining up with precip. Ho hum.

Okay. Bump away...in fact, I'll probably save you the trouble.

That's clearly some sort of anomalous error and not representative of normal. Most people I know IRL just use their apple weather app when they check the weather, they're not going to AccuWeather.com much less listening to the local news or looking at models. I can't think of the last time any person has ever talked to me about the weather forecast they saw on TV.

where did you get this data? and can you sort by other snowfall amounts, like 3" or 6" or 10"?

Euro weeklies yesterday vs new euro ensembles for the same week. Deamplying the ridge in the east. This is what we need.

Not really, worst possible scenario is the torch. A torch at Christmas is the equivalent of stubbing my toe at 3am. So you can keep that foolishness to yourself. Haha

Festive if anything, to open the holiday season. Maybe a whitening on the newly strung garland and lighting. Beats 62 and open golf courses in my world. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PAIRED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. WHILE THERE'S A LARGE SPECTRUM OF PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR 1"+ (10:1) SNOWFALL IN 24 HOURS CENTERED ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING IS >=60% EVEN AT THIS EXTENDED LEAD TIME. THE ECMWF/EPS DEPICTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUITES, BUT ULTIMATELY IT'S MUCH TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS, ASIDE FROM FEELING COMFORTABLE WITH ~60% POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUR MAIN MESSAGE IS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS TIMEFRAME DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. -LOT

Just great...more wind!

Only looked real quick on phone but next couple weeks look windy? Storm track to west and north of region = CAA.

Too soon. Let the hope and hype build for another 48-72 hours before you crush dreams.

December 2021 was a very warm December in the Eastern US (I think only 2015 was warmer). If we're not going to get any snow in December, then I hope it's a torch. At least it can come back to average at some point in the winter (like January 2022). The worst possible outcome is a cooler December with no snow (like December 2022).