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Yeah, June and July 2009 were both very cool and wet summer months around the area. It was the 2nd coldest June-July period on record at LGA. Recent years have had numerous top 10 warmest. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Top 10 Coolest June 1st through July 31st Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1972-07-31 70.3 0 2 2009-07-31 71.4 0 3 1982-07-31 71.6 0 4 1978-07-31 71.9 0 5 1969-07-31 72.0 0 - 1947-07-31 72.0 0 6 1958-07-31 72.3 0 7 1940-07-31 72.5 0 8 1946-07-31 72.6 0 9 1985-07-31 72.7 0 - 1975-07-31 72.7 0 - 1950-07-31 72.7 0 10 2000-07-31 72.9 0 - 1974-07-31 72.9 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Top 10 Warmest June 1st through July 31st Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020-07-31 79.4 0 - 2010-07-31 79.4 0 2 1994-07-31 78.1 0 3 1999-07-31 78.0 0 4 2024-07-31 77.9 0 - 2008-07-31 77.9 0 5 2013-07-31 77.7 0 6 2025-07-31 77.5 0 7 2016-07-31 77.4 0 - 1966-07-31 77.4 0 8 1952-07-31 77.3 0 9 2019-07-31 77.2 0 10 2006-07-31 77.1 0

What's winter looking like as of now? A slightly worse version of last year?

Probably some -NAO/PNA early, +NAO/PNA in February with more blocking in March.

BTW, NCEI data release is set for tomorrow morning at 11 am. July should come in among the top ten hottest, IMO. Looks like a number of eastern states had should finish around or in top five hottest. I didn't see any record-breaking values, but I didn't check every state. I think the June/July pairing will be somewhere in the top 8 or so... within striking distance of the record hot summers (JJA) of 1936 & 2021. August, however, has gotten off to a cool start nationally. Given where I suspect we are at for June & July, August would need to be record or near record warm for a new record high summer (JJA) for the CONUS (the current record holders of 2021 & 1936 both had hot Augusts). With the first week coming in decidedly below the 1991-2020 mean, it looks unlikely at this point. While heat is building now and the next couple of weeks look generally hot, it would take a pretty big inferno to completely wipe out the first week AND propel us to near record heat for the month as a whole. Still, August should come in above (perhaps well above) normal when all is said and done, with a top 5 hot summer probable.

True, that is some very impressive heat out there now!

True, but a very impressive heat wave is ongoing now. Phoenix has set two record highs already this month, including 116F yesterday, which was just 1F shy of the all-time monthly record. The low of 94F this morning was also one shy of the monthly record high minimum. Today is forecast to reach 117F which would match the August monthly record high.

Had a noisy owl across the street last night, freaked out my puppy.

As you know, it used to be the case that we didn’t start threads unless there was an invest or area of interest near a coastline…

Interesting. Wonder if there is any chance for a late Beaufort melt to gain some ground? Delayed, but not denied, as JB would say.

Also a strong Gulf of Alaska High pressure has been there June-July Analogs US Temp pattern of analogs

Since Atlantic ACE is considered to be a winter forecast factor: TSR just updated their forecast from last month…. -ACE increased markedly from 126 to 144. This compares to the CSU’s 145 and the Euro seasonal’s ~155. -The # of NS/H/MH increased slightly from 15/7/3 to 16/8/3. -However, US impacts remained the same at 4 NS/2 H. https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAugust2025.pdf

It being unable to sustain meaningful convection last night definitely hurt chances imo but I still think it has a chance once it turns NE.

TSR just updated their forecast from last month: -ACE increased markedly from 126 to 144. This compares to the CSU’s 145 and the Euro seasonal’s ~155. -The # of NS/H/MH increased slightly from 15/7/3 to 16/8/3. -However, US impacts remained the same at 4 NS/2 H. https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAugust2025.pdf

Probably will be for life

This Summer has been significantly cooler in the Southwest, US. Last year Phoenix was breaking records by >+2F, and the roll forward of those very warm analogs had a +PNA in Dec-Jan.. It was a good indicator. But we don't have that this year.

I just hope to god its wetter for the NE or I'll plunge into the Japanese piss-pool.

A great stretch of weather ahead with slowly warming temperatures. After a weekend with below normal temperatures with overnight lows in the 50’s and highs not too far from 80 degrees we should see temps getting well into the 80's by the start of the new work week. There could even be some 90's especially as usual across the valley locations by the middle of the week. No rain chances till at least Wednesday.

A great stretch of weather ahead with slowly warming temperatures. After a weekend with below normal temperatures with overnight lows in the 50’s and highs not too far from 80 degrees we should see temps getting well into the 80's by the start of the new work week. There could even be some 90's especially as usual across the valley locations by the middle of the week. No rain chances till at least Wednesday.

It’s a bigger problem … it’s a socio-technological related forcing in group response. There is too much varied information, exceeding processing/categorization capacity of most of population. It’s entirely intuitive that this will integrate unfavorably in groups and larger orders … setting off the cultural mode of distrust of information - compounding this dilemma … there are nefarious manipulators clever enough to even leverage that confusion because they benefit from uncertainty and the anxiety an uncertain world instills at a personal level. This is why nationalism-type modes have popularized in recent decades, world over. It’s really all a defensive contraction born out of fear of lost identity(s). The sense of invading ethos breeds pathos. Tribalism in some respects is also apropos as a response description. So it’s really more than media. It’s how tech has interfered with the social evolution of humanity. Media, of all forms, being ‘techno-reliant’ is certainly part of that. But technology forcing occurring so fast in history is destabilizing. Some can handle it. Many can not. There are legit information sources but hard to ferret them out in a blizzard … Then the few that engage in the Machiavellian distortion shit are living in a hay-day, for their nefarious goals thrive in a basis of obfuscating information saturation. All they need is to appeal to nationalistic opinions, if not flavoring rhetoric in that regard, and the suggestions will resonate.

we Chatham. Orleans next

Shame nice weather always comes with smoky a sky. I agree though. Beautiful.

24-25 is probably my top analog for 25-26 right now. Since 2014 though, there have been only like 3-4 periods where we had sustained below average for a 2+ month period, like last Winter. So the odds are stacked against it. It's not impossible though.

Squirrels have been feasting on something in the woods behind our pool. I am surprised we have any based on the hawk and owl populations here

We only planned on using it for the summer. It was in phenomenal shape, it was only used once. The person who purchased it before last summer passed away and whoever was going through the stuff listed it on Facebook marketplace and for free. Came with 2 pumps and 2 sets of hoses, filters, pH strips, everything. Pretty good fine for one summer!

1. Off the Southeastern United States: A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend while the system moves northward to northeastward, remaining well off the east coast of the United States. By early next week, the low is expected to become extratropical, ending its chances for tropical development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.