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Did David intend to make that look like an Emergency Alert System scare graphic? LOL

Just as an aside, SSW climo time frame isn't late autumn and early winter.... mid winter, okay....last season was very rare in that regard.

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1991) NYC: 93 (1915) LGA: 95 (1991) JFK: 89 (1991) Lows: EWR: 42 (1984) NYC: 47 (1966) LGA: 48 (1984) JFK: 48 (1959) Historical: 1875: A hurricane stuck Indianola, TX killing 176 people. 75% of the town was swept away from the disastrous storm surge. The highest wind registered was 88 mph before the anemometer blew away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1881 - Iowa's earliest measurable snow of record fell over western sections of the state. Four to six inches was reported between Stuart and Avoca. (The Weather Channel) 1888: An estimated F2 tornado struck Washington, DC. The tornado first touched down on the south side of the city then moved up Maryland Avenue. The National Museum and Botanical Gardens were damaged before the tornado lifted off the ground. 1928 - Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake. (David Ludlum) 1915: Boston, Massachusetts has the warmest minimum temperature of 76 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1928: The Okeechobee Hurricane, also known as the San Felipe Segundo Hurricane was one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin. This Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida as a Category 4 storm during the evening hours of the 16th. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of Lake Okeechobee, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet. This storm killed over 4,000 people, including 2,500 in Florida. 1933: The second major hurricane of the very busy season struck the North Carolina coast near New Bern with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a central pressure of 957 millibars or 28.26 inches of mercury. 76 mph winds were reported at Cape Hatteras, NC. 21 people died and significant damage was reported in Virginia and Maryland. Damage was set at $1 million dollars. The Category 3 storm followed on the heels of the damaging Chesapeake – Potomac Hurricane, which struck the coast in late August (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1961 - Hurricane Esther was seeded by Navy planes in the inaugural experiment of what was to formally become Project STORMFURY next year. Esther was the first hurricane to be initially detected by satellite. On Sept. 10th, TIROS III imaged an area of disturbed weather a hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1964: Concord, NH recorded a morning low of 27°, making this the shortest growing season on record at just 100 days.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1965: Rawlins, WY recorded their greatest daily precipitation on record as 2.06 inches of precipitation fell, including 14.5 inches of snow.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967: Hurricane Doria formed off Florida and moved northeast into the Atlantic. However, it reversed course and moved west to the lower Delmarva coast as a hurricane, then turned southwest, making landfall north of Cape Hatteras, NC as a tropical storm. This is a historic hurricane for two reasons. It was the 1st time on record that a tropical system made landfall north of Cape Hatteras, moving from the northeast. Also on this date, a noteworthy first occurred in satellite photography when Doria, Hurricane Chloe, southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada and Hurricane Beulah, about to move into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, were all photographed on the same orbital pass by ESSA 2. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: A record breaking early fall snow storm caused extensive damage to trees and utility lines. The heavy wet snow occurred with little wind but caused record breaking cold temperatures for so early in the season. Snowfall totaled 15.6 inches at Stapleton International Airport with most of the snowfall 12.0 inches occurring on the 17th. This was the heaviest first snow of the season. The maximum snow depth on the ground was 13 inches. Record low temperatures were set on three consecutive days: 31 degrees on the 17th 23 degrees on the 18th and 20 degrees on the 19th which was also a new all-time record minimum for the month at that time. Record low maximum temperatures were set on 4 consecutive days: 48 degrees on the 16th 35 degrees on the 17th 40 degrees on the 18th and 42 degrees on the 19th. Tony Hake Providing Local Weather for Thornton, Colorado (http://www.thorntonweather.com) Early Denver CO Snow 1984 - The remains of Tropical Storm Edourd began to produce torrential rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Port Isabel reported more than 21 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Overnight rains soaked Arkansas, with 5.25 inches reported at Bismarck. In the town of Malvern, up to four feet of water was reported over several downtown streets, with water entering some homes and businesses. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Lufkin with 4.30 inches of rain in just three hours. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Missouri. A small tornado near Kirksville lifted a barn thirty feet into the air and then demolished it. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert moved ashore into Mexico. The hurricane established an all-time record for the western hemisphere with a barometric reading of 26.13 inches. Winds approached 200 mph, with higher gusts. Gilbert devastated Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. (The Weather Channel) Hurricane Gilbert made landfall 120 miles south of Brownsville TX during the early evening. Winds gusted to 61 mph at Brownsville, and reached 82 mph at Padre Island. Six foot tides eroded three to four feet off beaches along the Lower Texas Coast, leaving the waterline seventy-five feet farther inland. Rainfall totals ranged up to 8.71 inches at Lamar TX. Gilbert caused three million dollars damage along the Lower Texas Coast, but less than a million dollars damage along the Middle Texas Coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms, respresenting what remained of Hurricane Octave, brought locally heavy rains to California, impeding the drying process for raisins and other crops. Sacramento CA was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in six hours. At Phoenix AZ, the afternoon high of 107 degrees marked a record seventy-six days with afternoon highs 105 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: Two weeks after Hurricane Fran lashed eastern North Carolina with torrential flooding rains and 115 mph winds, at least three damaging tornadoes spun through the same communities from severe thunderstorms. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: The remnants of Hurricane Floyd caused major flooding to North Carolina. More than 10 inches of rain fell in a swath from North Carolina to New Jersey. Many streams in the targeted areas reached 100-year and, in some instances, 500-year predicted levels. It ranks among eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, the central and northern Delmarva Peninsula, and New Jersey's most destructive flood disasters. Floyd's Track - Weather Underground (Ref. More Information About Floyd) 2000: The record high of 95° at Denver, Co set three records: 1.) New record high for the date. 2.) The warmest reading for this late in the year. 3.) It marked the 60th day during the year the temperature reached 90° or above, tying the record set back in 1994. Miles City, MT hit 100°, their latest 100 degree reading on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004 - Hurricane Ivan turned northward over cooler waters, and made landfall in southern Alabama as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan had a very unusual track almost making a huge circle.

67 / 59 : some clouds and showers as the warm front and ridge builds around Tennessee. Warm 72 hours / warmer inland. Have to watch the weekend and early next week for cutoff and / or stalled front which could lead to a cloudy / rainy cool 9/20 - 9/23. Beyond there overall near normal.

Exactly what I have been saying to my local weather group chat for Southeast MI. Theres not going to be snow on the ground almost all winter like last year, but the seasonal total is still wide up in the air. I do feel it will be subpar in true strong Nino fashion, but not crazy bad. We rely more on frequent snowfall than a big storm. We are not going to get a 2-3' noreaster (our big storms are 6-12") so its going to be how many snowy periods will there be? Warm, wet Dec followed by cold, dry Jan/Feb is usually a worry for some of the strong Ninos past (57-58, 65-66) but Im not as worried about super dry this time. The east coast should love the "potential" with the wet signal on all models.

You know ...this reminds me ... I have noted recurring tendency during late autumns and early/mid winters of the last decade. It takes place spanning the N arc of the Pacific latitudes ... It appears the lower rim of the strata vortex in that area is being "bulged" skyward from below. Among other consequences...this has given faux impressions of SSWs. It's hard to blame anyone for assuming so when it is collocated in timing with SSW climo anyway. And so, this was perfect for social media moguls out there to pounce and sound brilliantly insightful for their adoring social media followers. But they were/are wrong. That's not what's taken place. This is evidenced by the fact that post those there were not very clear downward propagation of thermal masses noted ( tho admittedly looking quite similar to an SSW thermal intrusion). However the wave breaks were weak. The reversal were not sustained ... as it were, the situations mimicked ( "tricked" may be more apropos) many into the SSW circle jerk. And the AO's didn't go through the correlated negative phase..etc. Last year there was a weak SSW later in the year, but aspects noted above were also more evidenced - all taking place after the earlier season bulging thing. So what was it then? It's speculative ... but certainly plausible. What I believe what's been taking place is that the troposphere all over the planet is beginning to "swell" for lack of better word. And yes ... it may chap ass but too bad. Stop eating denial tacos and that'll go away ... it's CC that's doing it. For the newbs ... Warmth = increasing volume. That's nature 101. And it's also why there is any weather on the planet. If one doesn't get that or understand it...strongly recommend two recourses: Learn it, or, don't engage in this hobby. PV=NrT Pressure * Volume = #mol * gas constant for free mixed air * Temperature. Because mass is never lost or destroyed, "#mol" can be set to 1. The gas constant is also a persistent factor in all volumes/homogeneity so.. toss that. That leaves a rather simplified variant of PV= T in the ongoing "machinery" When CC is empirically measured in both the air, the ocean, and most importantly, the couple atmospheric ocean holistic system, that means that the other side of this equation, the P and/or V necessarily has to also rise. There are a lot of refereed and adjudicated material/papers out there related to "The troposphere is expanding due to anthropogenic climate change" ( https://bulletin.cmos.ca/the-troposphere-is-expanding-due-to-anthropogenic-climate-change/) just to mention one in a large compendium I suggest the N. Pac bulging tropopausal anomaly of the late autumns and early winters is perhaps a new seasonal behavior associated with the expanded troposphere, but to be mistaken as an Sudden Stratospheric Warm intrusion. As an after thought ...it's perhaps a geometric identity - creating usage. The SSW come into the sidewall of the stratospheric vortex cylinder. The bulging stuff is elevating from beneath, but since the measuring is fixed to the altitude, the warmth may be falsely associated.

I love that. I need a hammock, I have so many nice trees in my backyard. But it needs to be strong, Im 6'5" and a big guy lol.

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week. Pretty amazing honestly. We almost made it with Edouard. A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it. It was very close but no cigar.

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Weathernerds has it for tropical https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html

I think you both were

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite. I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

EPS AI looks devastating

Excuse you… poor decisions get you elected in today’s world.

Also, is today the torch?

Certainly hope so so I don’t have to turn on the heat.

Thank goodness for the Appalachians moderating the air mass. For once

It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output.

Raleigh and Seattle have today's nicest weather in the Nation

Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.