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We have time for it to reverse otherwise its congrats Saratoga

I secretly hope we get no snow on Friday just because of how annoying Anthony gets every time someone rightly points out a cause for concern. Just spreading some Holiday joy

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it was the right time with her almost 11. Yeah I definitely shed some tears with this one. My daughter is on cloud 9. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Starting to get a little bit interesting with these 00z trends. Need to see the globals though.

I feel your pain Lvblizzard I have gained 1500 folks in the last 10 days and am approching like you 13k follower on my page....I am stunned how many folks in our area are so into the weather...good luck!!

Yep

New NAM is great if you live in Monmouth County

It can stop soon....

Looks great to me. But it can stop there lol

We go through this with every storm. People are always nervous. Rgem looks decent

Uh ? We know

Never. I’ve learned a long time ago than to believe anything past 24 hours.

Add RGEM to that list

It's still acceptable verbatim for most (though not all), but trends are very concerning. It's not just the placement of the low, the block shifted a bit east, allowing the HP to escape a bit more NE and the primary low gets further NE before sliding SE. Still time to course correct, but these are the type of things that fundamentally change the whole setup.

For once the trend might be our friend. We needed to get NAMd

Beware of the north moving snow band. I still maintain my call that I expect mixing up through NYC. It’s a hallmark of these types of storms, hard to bet against it

Weenie suicides incoming

RGEM got a bit warmer as well

It sucks running a page with 13k followers during a storm like this. You barely have a clue but the people demand numbers and you just have to do your best.

That’s nice beefy qpf, thought that was a kuchera map at first.

18Z for reference

None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.

Icon slightly north

Icon ticked north too. Not like Nam though lol.

Yeah the low can still be not too far north but we all get sleet instead of snow because of that mid level warmth. Southwest flow event storms like these tend to have more mid level warmth than expected. Been countless instances of storms with this track (not just in 2020s but 2010s as well), where the precip is delayed and then we have mainly sleet from the onset and the totals end up being cut in half of What was originally expected