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Looks like our next shot at any widespread rain will come Friday night. Hopefully the setup shifts a bit further east this time. Hope that comes through because after that looks pretty zzzzz.

Yes...and maybe for most places last season was good, but it was nothing short of atrocious where I am. And no.....I would take 2016-2017 over any of those seasons mentioned.

Yea, the CANSIPS is always too cold, but I thought it did best last season. I'm JB because I reported model data?

Wasn’t he the guy who said Michael was really a cat 2?

The fam's coming on Saturday----if we can squeeze some decent that, I'll be thrilled.

You are using an example of the CanSIPS missing the 500mb forecast from multiple months out. My observation is based on the months when the 500mb forecast is reasonably close. The updated January 2025 forecast which came out on January 1st was too cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast even though the 500mb forecast did better once we got closer in.

Warm and dewy. Great July couple of days. Upper 80s incoming here. 90s for many.

Cansips is not perfect, and I never said it was. But your statement it's biased in one direction doesn't always hold true. Ask the central, southern, and eastern areas of the conus about 1/25. Top map Cansips 500mb 1/25 forecast from 7/24 Middle map 2m 1/25 forecast from 7/24 Bottom map actual 1000mb map from 1/25 I'd like to know how many other seasonal models were showing any BN temps in January from their 7/24 forecast, other the Pac NW.

Thanks. I have kept a running tally of past model forecasts and where their errors or biases have been. I use them in the various threads for my forecast discussions. While AI models on their own haven’t been very good with real world use compared to the numerical models, they may have some promise if they could figure out how to incorporate AI to bias correct the numerical models in real time. I think the ECMWF is trying to do this. But the computer power involved in that is pretty demanding.

12z HRRR, 3km NAM, and 6z Euro look interesting for eastern parts of the region as the remnant low tracks ENE.

Probably not until September.

Nice spiral to the South. The seasonal models that had a small area of above normal preceip in the Northern Mid Atlantic are looking good so far. Also, home grown activity is already scoring as the Western Atlantic is very warm, thankfully not as warm as the marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Maybe in your place it was about normal snowfall, but in most places, especially Philly on southward, it was a well below normal snowfall winter. For Baltimore and DC, it was a Top 10 least snowy winter. Plus, it torched from November-February, with very little snowfall during those months. Only March was colder than average and had above average snowfall. Easily one of the most depressing winters ever. Besides, I'm pretty sure either 2020-21 or 2021-22, depending whether you're inland or on a coast, was better than 2016-17.

Yeah, these forecast soundings are really loaded with tropical moisture. Also weak steering flow could lead to stalling and training convection. Somebody could see some very heavy rains in a short time period.

Clouds from the Chantal system are already to MD

Chris, Very well said about model biases! I couldn’t agree with you more. When significant clearcut cold biases are identified, it isn’t cherry picking to point out a much too cold model verification. If a model is too cold and has too low H5 hts in the E 1/2 of the US, say, 75-80% of the time, it isn’t cherry picking. The same could be said for any identified clear cut biases for any model.

How old is that tree Ken? Is your land sandy soil? You have a lot of Black Locust, what little that was around here were used for fence posts a long time ago.

Ill be up there Fri-Mon, was hoping for sunny weather and maybe hit the beach.

Thanks, Charlie! Yes, I recall you mentioning the surface winds being higher this year vs last thus resulting in cooling from upwelling. Regardless, I think it’s important to always expose JB when he spreads misinfo about underwater seismic being the main factor in ocean warming and now cooling. I don’t expose it and other stuff like this because I necessarily agree with it. However, sometimes I like being reminded of the true explanation. Also, I expose it to show how often it’s being spouted as well as to generate responses like yours to keep others informed who are just reading this stuff from JB for the first time of how far off JB is. Thus, I expect to repost more of this JB nonsense as he continually posts it in the near future.

Models having inherent biases have nothing to do with cherry picking. They are a function of the way the models work. The CanSIPS is well known for showing too much cold where the troughs are forecast especially in the East. One of the few parts of the country that can verify colder than these seasonal forecasts is the Rockies and Upper Plains. But that doesn’t do the posters living in the I-95 corridor any good. Plus the forecasts beyond one month are a crap shoot anyway. So don’t get too attached to what any of the seasonal models are showing now for next winter. The CanSIPS and other models don’t have a ton of skill forecasting the 500mb pattern more than 30 days out. So we have to wait until the 1st of each month for the monthly forecast. Then adjust the temperatures warmer in the spots where a trough is indicated for models like the CanSIPS. With the exception of Western areas which can sometimes verify colder. But usually not the East. The one model truism over the years is that the Southeast Ridge or general 500 mb heights in the East verify higher than forecast. This is why the heavy snows which were indicated as far south as NY Metro last February got pushed up into Canada from Toronto to Montreal. So understanding these model biases is essential if you want to have a better handle on the medium to long range and seasonal forecasts.

I'm in Chicago until 7/21, and I'm sure not loving this humidity. Any chance of a real cold front in the foreseeable future that will knock the DPs down to 50 or below??

Iowa scraps yesterday gave .02”. Drought feedback loop in full effect