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New JMA H5 winter maps from NE forum post: this is what I see DJF: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO Dec: slight +PNA, ~neutral EPO, slight -AO to neutral AO, slight +NAO Jan: strong +PNA, ~neutral EPO, -AO, ~neutral NAO Does anyone disagree with my opinion on what these maps are showing for these indices?

All of the really deep convection today has been on the Western side of the circulation. I believe the Eastern side has been getting choked off some by the drier air wrapping in.

lol yep. Like insult to injury.

Yeah Steve just texted me this info. This is very impressive.

Per recon, it’s flirting with cat 4. It’s defying all of the odds. Never bet against a Gulf cane.

8.0 earthquake in Panama

and all these gorgeous days during the week of course

Well folks this looks legit with everything coming together. We all new that we couldn't keep avoiding this type event again. Hurricane, moving fast, high winds, heavy rainfall, possible power outages and flooding. As we all know this isn't Hurricane Helene but this is a powerful Hurricane. Batten down the hatches and prepare now. As we all have known it's better to be prepared for the worst than be in a vulnerable position. Everyone post as much as you want and can about this upcoming event. We all need to stay on top of this.

Yeah, could just be a matter of time before the stronger winds mix down to the surface.

This wouldn't warrant an upgrade, but the data shows a storm that's pretty robust. 150 mph winds at 925mb-938mb, which is about 800-1200ft above the surface

I play in the men’s footy beer leagues on Sundays and it has been miserable. Pickups have been annoying enough, late summer but so far, 1st Sunday was pouring up until a few hours before and it was clear but it was ungodly humid. Like, I was sweating for an hour AFTER we were done. We canceled the weekend of the nor’easter, which probably would have been the best weather and the other two Sundays were raw and rainy. Couldn’t tell if it was sweat, rain, or both and took forever for my clothes and cleats to dry. Awful weather.

My 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.56" to 1.76". At the same time the NBM decreased from 1.02" to .82"! That NBM is a real party pooper considering how badly we need rain!!

Gotta take the over on this for most spots.

While I know it’s not a Helene, our area hasn’t really been tested since that storm. I’m nervous about what this could knock loose - both land and trees that may still be hanging by a thread.

Map Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Damn you’re a young man. You should celebrate your bday and enjoy the warm autumn weather today and tomorrow.

Tuesday is going to be close to 80

Surprisingly the east eyewall drop only recorded 87kt surface level winds

It's easy to get nervous after what happened 2 years ago

Yep.

High end Forecast

Ticking east every run. Good call.

Yup they finally pulled the trigger. Good thing as well. No need to wait until the last minute. People have PTSD from Helene. This storm looks legit for us folks.

How many more wobbles east should I allow before I start to get nervous?