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I'm really hoping to get something out of this...even if non-severe. I am off this week and next week for my friend and I's annual get together for local chasing. One of these years we'll do out west but my energy levels are fading and I'm so tired of driving so who knows

I see what Wizzy is seeing on the NAM. There is a psuedo EML tickling S coast and decent CAPE near and SoP. Despite limited shear, forcing looks to be along wavering from near pike. So yeah...a few storms could be interesting.

Heat comes right back for sweaty COC.

Assuming the 12z GFS is correct. A big assumption right now - but that has a great look for strong/severe Sunday afternoon.

You mean the QBO is oscillating back and forth from westerly to easterly...must be CC!! JK

Red hot news bulletin (followup): Not at all surprisingly based on past patterns, the 30 mb QBO dropped to negative in May (-4.59) from April’s +6.94: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Your problem is you have zero proof any of those moves required a 2 to 4 degree temperature adjustment which is what took place. As a simple example (small sample size but enough to be clearly directional) I have analyzed the difference between the relatively rural Coatesville 2W at 660 ft ASL vs Thorndale 290 feet above sea level and in the middle of a sprawling development but only a few nautical miles apart. Even a move from the relatively rural Coatesville 2W to an suburban sprawl development at almost 400 ft asl lower does not result in anywhere close to the magnitude of changes the NCEI tries to apply.

hi res vis imagery has the "back edge" of this smoke band about 10 minutes up 89 from CON and collapsing SE...

That's very quick burst of heat then 70s low 80s. Welcome to coc season

The 1960s being much colder than the 2010s is definitely attributable to a combo of both CC and the AMO (- vs +).

One thing I will say is that the 2015-2016 winter was much milder and less wintry overall, aside from the mid atl blizzard, then the 1957-1958 el nino....I am sure CC plays a role there maybe, but the former event was also simply stronger, too. Again, possibly due to CC.....that is reasonable.

Love this deep summer look and feel! 80 on car thermometer in Hampton.

Exactly...I agree, but listen...maybe Chris is right...I am willing to wait and see and I will change my mind if we are still sporting a negtive PDO in 7-10 years. But I don't see why the default baseline should be some radical change to the global circulation and multidecadal patterns. The climate/meteorology community should remain open to that possibility as scientists, but it should not be assumed at this juncture given the info that I have just presented.

I still say that the predominantly +3/2014-7/2016 during El Niño is similar to 6/1957-2/1959.

to 78 (add 10) gets to 88 for here. Smoke mainly cleared through Jersey. Hot spots look low 90s tomorrow

Looks like widespread half inch on Saturday

Now this is the weather I need.

Hazy shade of summer

Then we have the nam

Code Orange in effect today with the worst of the haze/smoke expected east of the Susky. I see little evidence of it here at work currently, however.

flipped back to ireland mode today, guess we need the rain def the greenest drought i can remember

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

FN... ALEET. Captain Summer. ALEET.