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That worked out better than I thought it would because the heavy precip came early before the mid level warmth could ruin it-in these SWFE type setups we need the heavy initial thump. Even in Long Beach there was 4-5" because the snow came in like a wall and piled up. The ones where it gets delayed/comes in shredded you know will disappoint.

We need those winter weather reports from Tamaqua. You matter!

Gfs probably going to come north a bit, but it was so far south it’s likely not going to matter

This reminds me of a winter storm we had last February. All of NYC and LI was under winter storm watch for 4-6” of snow, sleet, and ZR. We were downgraded to winter weather advisory, because only 2-4” fell in the boroughs because of a lot of sleet. Most of Long Island did better, and the either west you went, the more mixing you ran into. Was a solid ice storm for Philly up towards Newark. Cold temps ahead of that storm too, but lots of mid level warmth

I don't think so. That was the day my brother and sister-in-law got married. I remember it being 70 and sunny in the morning, maybe a little breezy and cloudy in the afternoon during the ceremony, but no tornado.

Larry's an excellent Medium / LR Forecaster.

It's really about the mid levels and 700/850 low tracks. Right now the blocking is stout enough that those don't screw us over but I wouldn't say we're out of the woods (around NYC). Look at the soundings. There will definitely be a sleetfest zone in this kind of storm because of those mid level lows going north of them and bringing in the warm air at 750/800mb. Right now that's most of PA down to Philly but have to watch any last minute trend.

Can see some of the best forcing developing over where the models had this on radar, These norluns are a nowcast but looks like the models got it right at this time.

2.5" now. My expectations were pretty low with this event, so if we can pull off 3"+ that's definitely a win. 32F and snowing steadily with no wind. Beautiful night.

I normally would think this is a scraper at best but guidance has been so bad of late that I have to think calculating is damned difficult with an unusual flow pattern that is fast. I would recommend low expectations but keep the door open for better until Thursday night (0Z/26) runs.

Dumping! 1"

We pray for dongs out east tomorrow. Still one more shot at a Christmas miracle there.

Never was a snow event. More about ice with this one

Looks great guys. Enjoy it.

It sucks that all of New England cant enjoy a white Christmas like years past.

First Call For Weekend Snows Major Accumulations "Blocked" From Region Latter November Stratospheric Warming Impacts On The Forecast The time has come for an Eastern Mass Weather mea culpa of sorts as it pertains to the stratospheric warming this past November. The winter outlook published during the early portion of November referenced the early December 2000 analog in postulating that this warming would not result in a reversal of the 850 zonal winds across the arctic. It was also (incorrectly) asserted on December 16th that this event did in fact barely fall short of the reversal criteria. This was an honest mistake, as it has been brought to my attention by the very meticulous Larry of the Americanwx.com forum, that there was barely a marginal reversal on November 28th. This is in more in line with the December 4th, 1981 warming that was cited as a potential alternative scenario that would in fact yield a full reversal. Ultimately, while the warming episode in-and-of-itself was relatively well forecast using the 1981 and 2000 analogs, the ramifications of it were certainly understated in that high latitude blocking was not expected to materialize prior to the new year, following the mid-month relaxation. However, it is now clear that this will be incorrect given that NAO blocking has rapidly burgeoned into existence on modeling in the period centered around the holiday week. This is approximately 30 days after the 11/28 reversal and consistent with the time lag of the development of high latitude blocking following a reversal per research, and this will have major ramifications on the potential weekend storm. Synoptic Evolution Yields North Atlantic "Traffic Jam" The emergence of the north Atlantic block this Christmas, on the eastern side of the NAO domain in response to the previously referenced stratospheric warming late last month, is what sets in atmospheric "traffic jam" of sorts. Normally, high latitude blocking helps to facilitate snow storms for the area, but in this instance the opposite is actually the case. Northern stream energy dumping into the Maritimes pools underneath the developing block once off of the coast and amplifies. At the same time, the energy for the weekend potential ejects out of the Pacific trough careens east-north-east over the top of the central US ridge and on a collision course with the Great Lakes by Boxing Day. The lead wave has developed into a deep, closed 500mb low near the 50/50 position by this time and is largely impeded from exiting to the NE by the nascent block to the southeast of Greenland. This results in yet another zone of confluent flow over New England since this system can not "get out of the way", so to speak, which shears and redirects the weekend system to the southeast as it approaches the region after descending from the peak of the ridge. This should relegate any significant snowfall to the southwestern quadrant of southern New England, primarily impacting portions of the state of Connecticut. FIRST CALL: Final Call will be Thursday night or Friday.

If the northern side of the band currently hitting me gets you, it’ll be worth another snow walk. Nuking in this band. Enjoy the little victories.

I just walked for the past 90 minutes. Came down heavily with huge flakes. Petering out now though a little burst may come in the next 20-30 minutes. Hopefully there’s another snow walk soon. Enjoy it Mainers!

Solid event. Locks in white Christmas. We’re pushing about half that here, but it just might be enough. Esp with CAA during the afternoon. We’ll see. Still trying to add a little more...still ripping outside.

Reggie doesn't look bad.. gives atleast some snow to all of SNE

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/first-call-for-weekend-snows.html FIRST CALL: Final Call will be Thursday night or Friday.

Reggie clobbers NYC South

Alright, no more pivoting please

Icon has shifted the heaviest axis of precipitation over 100 miles SW since this morning. If that doesn’t stop, nobody is going to score

3” will likely be the final