A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Excessive heat will overspread the region tomorrow with the mercury soaring into the 90s across the region.
Extreme heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.
June Monthly Records:
Bridgeport: 97°, June 9, 2008
Islip: 96°, June 24, 1966 and June 19, 1994
New York City-Central Park: 101°, June 29, 1934 and June 27, 1966
New York City-JFK Airport: 99°, June 29, 1949, June 26, 1952, June 30, 1964
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 101°, June 26, 1952 and June 13, 2017
Newark: 103°, June 27, 1952
June 26, 1952 is currently the hottest June day on record in and around the New York City area. Out of the five stations from the above list that were operating in 1952, three reached or exceeded 100° on June 26, 1952 (Central Park: 100°, LaGuardia Airport: 101°, and Newark: 102°). All five reached 95° or above. Two stations also saw 80° or above lows: Central Park: 81° and LaGuardia Airport: 84°. Both the number of 100° highs and 80° lows is the highest on record for June for this five-station area.
For June 26, 1952, the five-station average high was 99.4°, the average low was 78.2°, and the mean was 88.4°. The average high and mean are the highest on record for June. The average low is the second highest on record for June. June 21, 2012 was the second hottest day, overall, in this region. Its average high was 96.8°. Its average low was 78.4°. Its mean was 87.6°. That average low was the highest on record for June. The average high and mean were the second highest for June.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.
The SOI was +2.11 yesterday.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today.
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).