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43

I've seen that before on my oaks. Doesn't seem like a big deal?

Did you make this chart yourself? This is really instructive. Have you by any chance made one for KDCA as well? I suspect that would be even more tilted in favor of -AO.

Nice start to winter out west and especiall Canadian Rockies with what else..more blues there.

Not sure where to put these. But I’ve always liked this guys toned down straight forward approach. https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1978632840305631546?s=61 he is east coast centric, though outlook is relevant here.

Beautiful morning. 33.3.

low of 38F this morning.

Lucky 70 for JFK. Even LGA maxed at 69. Must have been the northerly wind.

CMC and GFS show a cold front passage Monday while the Euro is much more wound up with a storm

38.9/30 and breezy In theory it’s probably cold enough for some CAA flakes here as well.

From early yesterday partially reiterated: No chatter yet on the impact of the block the rest of the month? While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month. That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms. Not sure if anyone saw the ECMWF OP CF-squall line 45-60 MPH gusts, cycle to cycle since 06z/15, different target areas from NJ/e PA/srn NYS early Monday. Could be a few power outages/branches down. No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains. Latest 06z/16 EC cycle has the surface low driving the CF across the area predawn Monday then redeveloping the deepening sec low s of LI late Mon? Unsure whether this can happen. I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts this morning.

41 here

With the highs beating guidance yesterday JFK moved into the top 5 again for 70° days. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 216 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 ................................... ...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 15 2025... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 70 153 PM 82 1975 65 5 60 MINIMUM 53 1159 PM 37 1999 50 3 46 AVERAGE 62 58 4 53 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec 70° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 167 0 2 2015 160 0 3 2021 158 0 - 2010 158 0 4 1985 157 0 5 2025 155 77 - 2007 155 0

The lake effect zones have been the place to be with the shift in the storm track west of the Apps in recent years. Plus the warmer lake temperatures are helping boost your snowfall totals. But areas to the east of the storm tracks have seen a steep decline in snowfall. The Apps runner snowstorm which was prolific from the 60s to 90s has been missing. State College has seen a large snowfall decline since the 60s while your near the lakes area has seen a general increase.

Yea, I don't see much of an argument for an exceedingly warm season...obviously the CC elephant in the room should provide the impetus for pause before going exceedningly cold, but most should have a fighting chance this year.

35 this morning.

Yea, AO and EPO are non-starters if they are hostile. NAO is icing on the cake and more of an insurance element against "what could go wrong".

Sign me up for that pattern...while not a KU cookbook, that looks ripe for ample overunning and redevelopment with cold loaded in se Canada. Yes.

At least for NYC, the AO is a bigger factor. Red text=% of days e.g., AO-/NAO-; blue text: % of days in the quadrant with measurable snowfall; black text: percentage of total days with measurable snowfall. This is December-February/winter data.

I think most of this tweet is quite frankly hogwash. I posted the composites a few times and this notion that E QBO supports a flat Aleutian ridge is an utter fabrication. The second year La Nina "rules" are also silly in general. I think the intensity and orientation of cool ENSO is more important that it's place in a sequence. I've seen folks on here point out the flaws with Bamwx, but this guy is far from infallible as well.

Cloudy and 35/32… will we see flakes? :p

The folks laughing at this post should consider that La Nina in and of itself is in fact unlikely to be a major player, regardless of whether the west Pac makes it appear as though it is. Technically Anthony is correct.

I think a best case for my area is an active, +NAO season with a couple of pronounced periods of major blocking mixed in. I don't really care to have a deeply negative NAO season, which appear to be a thing of the past, anyway.

Yes. The thing about this stretch is that it has been consistently subpar, but I have avoided any bottom-dweller seasons.....just also missed out on the couple of decent ones. It's been a strong of seasons in the 30s and 40s, save for 2020-2021, which barely snuck above 50".

That map has me in 10-14 range but I remember getting about 5 inches