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  2. GaWx
    If I had added another El Niño to the list, it would have been 1991, which did average slightly BN Sep 28th-Dec 31st and this is the coldest strong to very strong Nino at 80+ N for 9/28-12/31 averaged out:
  3. mreaves
    And they say liberals are snowflakes.
  4. Ji
    Gfs ensembles don’t support op though
  5. frd
    WPC does not agree
  6. GaWx
    What about the very cold 1987, which peaked higher (+1.3) although early (JAS/ASO)? Are you not counting it due to early peak?
  7. Interstate
    and we have our first true model battle... let winter begin. GFS- North and wet EURO- South and dry
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    1963 and 1968 (both -PDO) are the only El Nino events of appreciable intensity....1958, 1976 and 1977, like 2004, were weak.
  9. Ji
    beautiful run
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  11. nw baltimore wx
    I’ll take this weather every time over what September has been the last several years.
  12. GaWx
    Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st: 1987: coldest 1976:2nd coldest 1968: 3rd coldest Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold: 1979: 1977: 1963: 1958:
  13. suzook
    50 this morning, 90 currently. Crazy swing.
  14. wxdude64
    Yep, Ditto here. Forecast is STILL mostly sunny and 78, same as it was at 7 am, lol. We MAY get there later, but after about 45 minutes of sun early this morning we have been cloudy. Currently 65.8/55.4 at 2 pm.
  15. A-L-E-K
    riding it
  16. MANDA
  17. MANDA
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
  19. Ji
    GFS ensembles went south too
  20. Ji
    EURO AI went so south we dont see a drop. THats what im looking for.
  21. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  22. Today
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I have always been with you on that. Interesting you note the weak signal nationally because some of the seasonal guidance has been hinting that December maybe colder than January and February in the NE.
  24. CoastalWx
    Looks that way
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good question...I guess the year in the aggregate?
  26. raindancewx
    The PDO tends to decay toward whatever 1.2 is in October, so I do expect it reverse toward neutral fairly rapidly in the coming weeks. But I never really expected it to sustain positive, and that still looks correct. PDO is a pretty weak signal in December nationally. The lightest blue/green is 0.1 r, not r-squared. But PDO is a bigger deal in Oct-Nov and Jan-Feb. The only important tendency with a -PDO December is Western Canada will be cold (probably not flooded with Pacific air).
  27. GaWx
    I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?
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