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JB does have some good arguments though. TW

Map only showed through 1PM Tuesday. Back-to-Back holiday parties.

He's taking Jeff's maps commment to heart.

I'm thinking 2" as the average across I-84 - not the upper limit - but with a wide range and maybe a funky regional distribution. I wouldn't expect uniform and consistent precipitation. I would guess the precip. shield is more banded and variable with winners and losers. But it's just a guess really.

Nam shifted north

might have

I think the +TNH will run a bit into Feb before we get very mild and await the stratosphere.

Where Anthony’s post you quoted? Did he delete it?

Agreed and makes sense. February here i’m expecting canonical Nina, which is usually a mixed bag of 60+ degree torches, rain/ice/sleet/snow overrunning events as the SE ridge waxes and wanes. January colder and mostly snow.

New BAM WX video says we're back into winter by mid-January. Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between.

more after that

Are you thinking more than 2" here in the 84 corridor? Im thinking 2" is prob the upper limits in this area. Maybe some 3-4" amounts in the Catskills

0z NAM coming back north but was pretty far south at 18z

HRRR shows it Putnam CT to Boston this run.. it will waffle.. instead of 2-3" that screw zone will be half inch to an inch .. Also parts of SW New England may miss out in this event entirely have to watch out for that.. SW Fairfield County in particular

Considering just about all guidance has 0.2" liquid or more across NNJ and SENY and a snow-supporting model profile, those WPC snow maps look low. You would seemingly have to go against model consensus to come up with those probabilities. Or maybe they are heavily skewed towards the GEFS. Either way, the lack of granularity across our region makes it only modestly useful.

It could be anywhere in that area equal chances..

I have a <3 for all the west-facing ridgelines near those ORH hills and up into NH.

sweet spot!

This was the sunset yesterday with the lights from Pats Peak visible to the right:

Steve D, enough said....

HRRR shifted south

No changes in thinking at this time. With marginal temperatures and light precipitation rates, most of the New York City area will probably see little more than a coating. The City will likely see temperatures remain above freezing for most or all of the storm. A trace of snow cannot be ruled out for parts of the City. Nearly three-quarters of events with temperatures above freezing saw no measurable snowfall while just one-in-six had 1" or more in Central Park's climate record. It is possible that the precipitation could mix with or end as some light rain or drizzle in and around New York City. The distant northern and western suburbs continue to have the best chance of seeing 1"-2", as readings will likely be near or perhaps even a little below freezing during much of the event. The latest WPC maps for 24-hour probabilities of 1" or more and 2" or more snowfall are below:

Sure...reasonable.

One thing that throws a monkey wrench into assessing vs climo is the potential ENSO impact though. I believe that La Nina's have a tendency to be more front loaded and can often be quite toasty in February (keeping in mind that "frontloaded" is relative; just because December is the least bad doesn't mean it's good.) On the other hand a good El Nino might be just hitting it's stride at the start of February. I currently have no idea how impactful or not the fading Nina is going to be going forward. If it couples strongly, then there is reason to be concerned about late Jan and Feb.

It’s ok to say Tolland if that’s what you think. But I haven’t seen anything that shows that