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Got lucky enough to get alittle over 1/2”….enough to not have to water the plants today i guess. Wind was impressive tho, branches down everywhere.

Something came through patio chairs down. Didn't wake me.

If anyone is looking to move to southern MD (or knows someone who is), send me a PM. Our previous home in Prince Frederick is still for sale… it’s been a much slower market down there than anyone expected (including our realtor).

.28 yesterday with some gusty winds as it came through, lots of small branch's and leaves down in my yard. A number of trees down close by though. The power flickered but didn't go out thankfully.

0.02” yesterday separated between two 0.01” showers.

0.21” here. One rumble of thunder

As expected. Never had a chance here. Probably didn’t even rain. Doubt we get anything today. Stein is here. Can put lawn mower away.

I can't believe a couple showers actually made it into the dried up lowlands during the night. It looks like it didn't amount to much but it's something.

The signal looks real with a CAG looking to develop and the EPAC starting to light up, but the AI ensembles not being as robust still gives me pause. Either way, another interesting aspect here is the models all showing the potential for tropical moisture to get carried into at least the southeastern U.S. as a ridge flexes in the western Atlantic and a trough tries to sweep eastward from the central U.S., creating a near ideal conveyor belt for moisture transport. That’s something to watch in its own right, and why I’m a little skeptical of the euro operational burying whatever seedling there is in the Bay of Campeche.

It sometimes updates later but, yes, it often does update in the middle of the night our time. The 24 hour period that each daily is based on evidently ends at about the average middays of Darwin and Tahiti.

^It updates at 2am?

It turns out that the models were right on as today’s Darwin SLP is 1017.70, the earliest that high so early in the season and the 6th highest on record: 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 Darwin will be lower tomorrow. Based on history, that 1017.7 could easily end up the highest daily Darwin SLP of 2026. But there’s no telling for sure as an SLP that high remains possible through September.

Thanks. If a Gulf TC were to materialize in mid June, then JB will get a big win on a call he made way back in late April as I recall based on projecting MJO phase 8 in early or mid June though he had been leaning more toward a week earlier as he even admitted.

Thanks, Chuck. Consistent with that, 2025 has by a large margin the strongest +AO for the period I was analyzing, May 23rd-June 4th from 1958 through 2026. That period in 2025 was chilly (~1.5C BN) though not nearly as cold as the ~-3.5C of 2026. By the way, 2026 had the 4th strongest +AO of this period back to 1958 thus intuitively helping it be one of the coldest. 2023 had the 10th strongest +AO and was ~1C BN. 1994 had the 2nd strongest +AO but it was only ~0.5C BN. 1996 had the 3rd strongest +AO, but it was NN rather than cold. So, the correlation of +AO to cold N of 80B is far from perfect due to other factors coming into play as you very likely realize even though there’s still a decent partial correlation.

Another nice shower moving through. (.20)

Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best.

We landed at BTV around 11:30 in an absolute deluge. Doesn’t seem to have rained as much down here.

I had a nice rainstorm, but no lightning and thunder so technically speaking I still haven't had 1st thunderstorm of the year, despite 4 high risk days (SPC). This one was severe thunderstorm warned, don't know why. The sky was dark but that's about it.

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years.

Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI.

True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.

Wish I could show @Roger Smiththis.

.12 at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Lots of trees and wires down In northern Queens as per the fire radio earlier this evening

Phalanx/dong headed in

Lightning and maybe 30 mph gust