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It looks like there may be enough of a wind shift to designate this at 11am.

Looks like a center is going to form just north of Cuba on the north Cuban Coast / south of the Bahamas and lift north bound.

Well this mornings GFS has snow for those visiting on Columbus Day weekend. At least if the foliage is gone they’ll have something to look at!

Days are getting shorter, nights are getting colder, who knows what weathers in order... One thing is guaranteed, however, its Spooky Season! Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Morning Update from the WPC regarding excessive rainfall and amounts.

SHIPS has some decent odds of RI occurring relative to climo. Maybe something to watch as the organizational trend continues today.

Maybe some light rain overnight? Who knows, you can't trust models 12 hours out anymore.

With the NHC now referring to Google DeepMind in some of its discussions, below is the latest Google DeepMind output for PTC9 at closest approach on the ensemble mean track:

My thoughts on what will become Imelda, while recognizing that there is still some uncertainty:

Cmc and euro ai want to bring it to the Mid Atlantic/ north east before all is said and done...... that's after wandering off the south east. Will have to keep an eye on that to see off that becomes a thing or not.

On sale for 1099 this week. Microcenter can’t even touch it Intel Core i5-14400F NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5070 12GB 16GB DDR5 RGB 5200MHz (16x1) 1TB NVMe SSD Windows 11 Home

What a turn on the models from the past 24 hours. Seems like the interaction with Humberto will pull Imelda out to see and keep it from making landfall as it seems currently with the models. This is the 06z gfs and the 00z euro. Looks like the coast is getting racked but I still think we see some adjustments made. With the pull from Humberto and a strong backdoor cold front blowing through we might just make it out with some beneficial rainfall in parts that need it and no flooding in the area. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

it's so hard to get a normal down that lasts more than a month

The stall looks legit. All the models show it.

6z Euro gets trapped AI was almost fun and the 6z GFS gets trapped just a bit to far out for now.. we track!

As I hope we all learned yesterday, we’re nowhere near having all the answers on the medium and longer range track. From the very beginning we knew Humberto and the steering pattern made this a highly complex forecast and some of us kind of settled into believing a false consensus on the models(EPS/GEFS)—myself included. I don’t think we know what’s going to happen yet. We just have to keep monitoring and communicating the track uncertainty. There’s also fairly substantial intensity uncertainty. Recon is in the PTC and is finding westerly winds now so it’s on an organizing trend even if the low is still broad. We will eventually have a defined enough center for a TC designation. Importantly, this is on the edge of the deep convection firing north of Cuba. In this kind of situation we have to watch for center reformations if deep convection continues, which here could significantly impact track. One thing is clear: the PTC is organizing at a steadier pace given the recon findings and satellite appearance.

Courtesy of the Fujiwhara Effect, my thinking is that the stronger Humberto will pull what will become Imelda away from the coastline before U.S. landfall can occur and before ridging can rebuild overhead to break down the steering currents and later redirect Imelda toward U.S. landfall. The Bahamas and possibly Bermuda will need to closely monitor the developing tropical cyclone. There remains a degree of uncertainty.

We did have that major flooding event in East Queens and Western Nassau during the summer too. But obviously that's localized. But extremely rare either way.

It’s already happening

When?

Stein bragging heavily this morning.

I am hoping for Stein through Morch, but it means much much less outside of growing season, summer, high sun angle etc.

Picked up .49" overnight. This brings my monthly total to 2.07".

The evergreens have leaves? Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS.