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Surely the fact that we are all a bunch of hysterical loons isn't part of any good policy analysis. More information is more information. We might not be able to resist the allure of overreaction, but surely a professional just waits and looks at a few runs, and the information is more current, and the effect is the same. I mean, I've seen people on here saying why hasn't box done x y or z, when their information doesn't match, and they are clearly just waiting for more info to confirm, rather than oversteering.
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
IronTy replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Reflection off the moon. Unless it's a New Moon, then we're in business. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
ravensrule replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Blinding. -
The sun is pretty strong at night
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How do you know it's out of step? Did the event happen already?
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
40/70 Benchmark replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Looks like the GFS. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
caviman2201 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
latest AFD even talks about sun angle... we're cooked for sure -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Weather Will replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I understand the HRRR is not reliable at HR 48, if ever, but seems to be showing an amped solution. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
clueless replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
9pm the new HH? JB Black. -
NAM came back south a bit for SNE.
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Why are you comparing hrrr at 48 to those? May as well compare hrrr at 48 to gfs at 384
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
BristowWx replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Is it good? I’m pickled. -
And like Upton said we should have more data in these runs
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
40/70 Benchmark replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
I hope this doesn't end up a cape event. -
Just wana get nammed one more time before it dissolves .
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Terpeast replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
As you probably know, hrrr isn’t comparable with the globals because it isn’t a global model. But same goes for the nam, which we do pbp on anyway -
0z 12K Nam ramping up the qpf again
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Huge positive difference with the northern stream compared to past runs and confluence moving out faster.
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Don’t forget warm grounds, recently warmer temperatures, and the increased sun angle will cut these snow totals in half. -
February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS
anthonyweather replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
LVIA is at 31 or something season to date. LVIA only recorded 11.8 last storm (which I think was skewed but whatever) . -
“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
ORH_wxman replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
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NAM looks a little amped so far.
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I feel like it’s been a while since we had a system eject from the 4 corners region out west. I vaguely remember data sampling issues with those systems.
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SWFE. Feb 20-21. Good BETTER Best
Prismshine Productions replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
That snow line is essentially I-90 Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Weather Will replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
