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Not meaning to digress the thread but all of humanity appears to be swooning over and guided by the 'grand presentation' these days. It's like we're all participating unwittingly in a dystopian cinema - if not delusion. It's a movie about the evolutionary scaled, socio-technological experiment we're sending out species through.

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

If they name it the next name is Gonzalo

It is actually insane the amount of model spread we have 48 hours out. Euro/euro AI continues to give most of the area a legit northeaster, GFS/CMC continue to be a glancing blow. ICON/`NAM have moved in the EURO camp. The RGEM is in the GFS/CMC camp. If this was snow, people would be losing their minds lol

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

Down to 46 for a low. Great way to start autumn.

Agree. And the Euro ... described below. As far as the GFS ...the difference seems to be that it doesn't include a tropical source. It is more purely cooler thermodynamic/baroclinic, and as such a weaker total cyclonic recovery takes place when this ...weirdness closes off. In and of itself I suspect it is too strong ? Not certain on that; just a-priori on modeling tending to bias on the strong side with everything at this range ...only to Charlie Brown the top 10, 20 ...30% off results at go time... I think there's wiggle room on in this scenario as far as amplitude results. The Euro on the other hand, heh. It pretty clearly indicates a kind of 'zygote' tropical entity straddling or just barotropic sidled to the frontalysis boundary, which it is extending between the Carolinas and mid way to Bermuda over these next 48 hours. It first appears more tropical in the phase space nearing 988 mb as it moves W toward the VA Capes lat (off shore).. Then drifts NNE toward the Benchmark, losing those characteristics in a less hospitable environment, before undergoing some sort of delayed baroclinic inject, it then re-deepens to 984 or so as it retrogrades back W along or S of LI.. Helluva meticulous sell - I find that overall evolution either extraordinary, or ... unlikely to be so handled with very much accuracy by the Euro so precisely. We'll see. It's interesting... All of it I suspect is more open to uncertainty than many are likely aware. Just higher than normal for this range.

Then the NHC should be adding it to its TWOs since those address the chance for both T and ST development. Adding it to its TWOs has been suggested by both JB and @vortex95

Page hits...give it a few more hours and they will have Jim Cantore interviewing Noah with the ark in the background...

Yes sir…you’ve really been swamped down that way…and we’ve been very soaked up this way too(although not as bad as your area), so this rain coming if it gets excessive will cause problems. As you said…ground is saturated here too.

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

6z Euro definitely an issue with winds, particularly for the coast

Had another frosty car and lawn this morning.

If that 6-10 inch rainfall area on the GFS And RGEM verifies we're going to have some serious issues-ground is saturated here from all the prior rains

I don't see Don downplaying it at all. He's said uncertainty exists. That was 12 hours ago. I think if the 12z suites all come in where they've been overnight, the uncertainty will disappear. NOAA hugging the GFS is new to me, but we'll see what they do. I think by 1 PM today, they'll hoist Gale and HWW for Long Island, not just the coastal waters. I think they'll also start flood watches beginning tomorrow at 8 pm for the area as well.

Mins

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

We all so deserve a true tempest like this with all of the boredom and no active weather over the last few years .

SW Suffolk could use some. Things have dried out considerably since the last rain event. Wind is not helping

The weather channel app on my phone showing over 4” of rain here now. Was showing 2.5” previously. That’s a lot of rain.

The wind aspect inland is still quite challenging. Coast should gust 50-60+ mph but inland its a bit more complicated (as always). Winds not far off the deck are quite strong and even if inverted a bit, it might not take much to bring some stronger gusts down. One potential thing to watch though is when the core of the strongest LLJ arrives...very possible this happen overnight which will make it a bit more difficult to tap into it. But if we can sustained a period of 50-60+ gusts inland there certainly will be some issues

Whats the track on the 6z Euro Op?

Yup…was just thinking about the parking thing.