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I feel like this past winter, which was a pretty cold but quieter than normal winter for much of the eastern half of the country, was not the best example for the potential that nyc holds. It couldve easily snowed more. We get snow often here regardless of the overall pattern, and the Lakes help out with tons of mood flakes. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. From November to April this past winter, 80 days saw a T or more of snow. I certainly dont ever want a torch winter, but outside of the freak torch winters, ultimately it is the storm tracks and activeness (or non activeness) of the pattern that dictates how high or low the final snow number will be, moreso than the temps. The temps are much more indicative of how much snowcover and ice cover the winter will have, and that is a direct influence on how the general public will perceive the harshness of the winter. Im not expert on east coast climate, but the noreasters are what everyone knows about. Im not sure about all the other systems that typically work and dont work for the area, but there has to be more to it than just feast or famine noreasters. Its a much warmer base climate than the Great Lakes to begin with, and always has been, so any rise in temps is not a help. However, I think you are also overlooking the potential cold that can be driven into the country. While it may be a smaller area, we have had brutal arctic blasts nearly every winter (even in '23-24 there was a doozy) that are plunging temps way below normal in areas that already average way colder than nyc. @Stormchaserchuck1 has commented on this cold before as well. For whatever reason though, this cold has continuously been dumping well to the west of the east coast, leaving the east coast with more so scraps of what ends up just seasonable cold. Naturally these blasts are heralded in with winter storm systems. Again, those systems miss nyc. Jostle up the pattern a bit, and things pour in more east, youre going to get more snow.

I think today it worst, and slow climb starting tomorrow.

Yes, absolutely....even Boston would have some issues.

Yeah, but Philly to NYC Metro would have had issues with the strong easterly flow.

Except a -PDO and cool ENSO

This system would have crushed interior SNE, including my area.

SNE did significantly better in the former....near average snowfall in 2016-2017.

After not being much of a factor from 2019-24, looks like the N. Atlantic warm hole, a pool of relatively cooler water south of Greenland, is returning and should remain through peak hurricane season. This tends to ramp up the risk for E. Coast hurricanes, particularly slow-moving ones: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1925494559032668254

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook: They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers. If you look back at their track record, their May forecasts were considerably too high (bullish) in 2021 (ACE forecast 179), 2022 (175) and 2024 (218). On the other hand, their May 2017 forecast (ACE of 110) strongly underestimated activity. They were on the few seasonal forecasting agencies to catch onto slightly above normal activity (based on 1950-2020 normals) in 2018 and 2019. https://268weather.wordpress.com/2025/05/16/268weather-may-2025-update-atlantic-hurricane-season-still-projected-to-be-above-normal/

Levi Cowan (from Tropical Tidbits) raises significant skepticism about this report claiming AccuWeather forecasts were more accurate last year: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1925320719732547804

i was told this morning in the gym, a guy i know his daughter is on the 10U town softball team and they have played only 4 games so far, the rest all rainouts

Well I'm a welder and I hate the heat. Bring on the cooler !!!

Nothing like bright banding on radar in late May. Definitely snow off the deck in wrn MA to Mitch right now.

That’s due to you being further north closer to NEPA. SEPA from around Philly into CNJ and SNJ has had less than half the rainfall that areas further north have had. This is why drought conditions closer to I-80 have improved with lingering drought further south. Plus Eastern Long Island has had more rainfall than Newark this month.

Accuweather/LRC >>> https://www.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Kantar-report-on-the-2024-Hurricane-Season.pptx-1.pdf

Wow HRRR and HREF are wet for today. There’s a signal for some flooding possibilities between Narragansett Bay and the western end of the Cape. Jeez…

I repointed part of the basement. Expecting as much as 4 inches of rain today. What a fun stress test. This has been a remarkably wet May. Ive been waiting and waiting to paint the house, and it will not get dry. It's going to wait till June at this rate.

@jconsor Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA on Thursday at 11 AM EDT #51 by jconsor » Thu May 22, 2025 7:17 am 268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook: They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers. https://268weather.wordpress.com/ I'd trust this over the mainstream forecasts

Boy is it chilly. Wall of water on the doorstep. About to clean the pellet stove and fire it up.

Today’s weather song of the day.

Once we get out this cloudy cool pattern things will explode. We are nearing peak solar insulation which is what causes the best growth.

Does Brooklyn count? 0.16" here in Linden NJ for May 21st

Yep. Holes on water were scenic. (Tournament length) 200 yard par 3 over water 175 yard par 3 along water par 4 along water par 5 along water that required a 200+ carry over water driveable par 4 over water was coolest hole

You should be confident in nothing in May regarding how this upcoming winter will play out

Huh??? I've had 9.74" this month so far.