Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC).
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO has a pretty good opposite correlation between October and the Winter. It's the only month of the year where that is true! Actually since "discovering that" in 2005, it's flipped 13/22 times - monitoring it future-tense vs past-tense. The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters Lowest NAO Winter on record, 09-10, had a +1.51 Oct NAO. The Pacific usually holds the same pattern between Oct and the Winter, although sometimes in El Nino's the EPO flips historically, not sure if that's true over more examples.
  4. GaWx
    ‘23 JJAS PDO -2.4 ‘26 JJAS PDO -1.2
  5. olafminesaw
  6. michsnowfreak
    Perfect autumn weather
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones.
  8. MJO812
    The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.
  9. BrianW
    @tamarack Helped my wifes uncle close up their lake cabin this weekend near Morristown, NJ. Some impressive tree damage from that July 3rd storm with lots of local reports of 75 -80 mph winds. Almost all the damage was red oaks that split around 25-50 feet up. There is a lot of old growth trees and tons of 100+ year old giant Tulip Poplars that didnt even loose a branch.
  10. Jebman
    Really sorry about your loss. My condolences to you. This reminds me of when my Dad passed away in 2018.
  11. alex
    First flakes in the forecast. Won’t be up to check lol
  12. alex
    lol the ball will slide nicely on the frozen grass
  13. Stormlover74
    A week out
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    how can i get avodart without prescription or where to buy cheap avodart without a prescription how to buy cheap avodart http://wap-robin.com/forum/go.php?strn=https://dutashielddirect.com/ can i buy cheap avodart without dr prescription and http://clubdetenisalbatera.es/user/oilxkgqjhm/ can you buy avodart without insurance [url=http://www.tifosy.de/url?q=https://dutashielddirect.com]where buy cheap avodart without insurance[/url] how can i get avodart tablets and [url=https://emsxl.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=171189]avodart[/url] can you buy avodart without dr prescription
  15. mitchnick
    Today’s aren't out yet.
  16. Chinook
    Fall heat wave with approximately 17 deg F above normal coming up for northern Colorado.
  17. MJO812
    Weeklies?
  18. MJO812
    Nice coastal storms on the gfs
  19. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    order levothyroxine 175 mcg: ThyroWellRx - buy thyroid hormone pills online
  20. Terpeast
    Sorry to hear about your loss. My condolences @RickinBaltimore
  21. GaWx
    -2023 isn't a great analog because 1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is 2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be 3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0 ————— -2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based ——— -2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based ———— -2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
  22. Terpeast
    Was gonna respond to this with a plot I did years ago showing how the 500mb pattern over the east often reverses from October to DJF (eg east ridge winter after troughing in oct), but the plotting tool I’m using seems to be broken and I don’t have the time to try another tool. I also hadn’t broken it down between la nina and el nino years when I did it back then. What I meant was not only october snow, but the bigger picture of the overall pattern. But without the plots, I can’t make that case now. Oh well.
  23. Today
  24. mitchnick
    Ensembles continue with the +NAO too.
  25. WinterWolf
    Well…in leftovers I think he meant another Rainey weekend for SNE, and that would be par for this spring, summer and now fall.
  26. WxWatcher007
    @vortex95 will learn. Winter is hand to hand and town to town combat around here. Michael, Ian, Laura, Ida, Helene, Milton...just to name a few. 3k Nammy has some flakes in the high peaks this week. More likely than a big event. Deeply skeptical of leftovers here, but I think we have a shot at some Gulf development. Might close out the season of futility.
  27. GaWx
    12Z UKMET is 4th full run in a row with a Gulf TC and again maxes out in strong TS range but well to the W of the 0Z’s FL Pan with it coming into EC LA: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29 0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40 0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44 1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55 0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30 1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...