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It looks like some rain is trying to develop south of DC. The sky has gotten much darker in the past hour. I wonder if that will move across the lowlands later. It's been a great day in the garden. Nice and cool with a little breezy drizzle.

Yuck. Didn't something eat all the leaves last year too?

I'm grabbing my popcorn for humberto

Tomorrow will be another cool day for the season. The temperature top out in the upper 60s to around 70°. It will be somewhat warmer on Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 70s. By Wednesday, the mercury will likely reach 80°. A sustained period of above normal temperatures will likely develop by midweek. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that could change shortly afterward if some of the extended range guidance is correct. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. The SOI was -3.16 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.402 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.3° (1.3° above normal).

Congrats metfan. 107° NYC…LFG

Downright chilly out there!

A cold front approaches New England Thursday afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk. While we are looking five days out there is already an area highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35 knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.

Euro is hot. Oh baby.

Even Monday and Tuesday's chances are starting to fade. What went wrong?

CON avg min in July was 57° for 61-90. They had a July min in the 30s many years in the 70s.

That is good agreement for an extended 5940dm ridge though.. in a continuous +AO pattern

Light drizzle, 66. Feels like April.

Day-2 30% hail (hatched) outlook for the Twin Cities

When I lived at 1k in New Boston NH, 2012-18, the highest temp I ever saw on my Davis VP2 was 97.0 in 2012, on the hottest day of the year. First-order SNE sites were like 99-104 iirc

If we are talking KBOS or BDL it's really not difficult at all. 100F is a bit more challenging, and of course >100F is more rare. 98-99 is fairly routine for those spots. I suppose it's how you want to define "rare", too. lol

And while we get ridging, these models are showing Summertime snow near Yellowstone! I haven't turned on my AC yet either

Sure just feel he likes to make sure his ducks are in order. No harm no foul. The WPAC is still warm but not excessively warm as it was so chipping away at it slowly is the name of the game. I would be interested to see if the WPAC starts to fire off any tropical systems coming up here with what could be a minor WWB coming up like we saw earlier this month still no typhoon but at least things are trying to get going.

Sorry if you're already aware of this . I didn't stop by the forum yesterday, but for future reference, I would ask the guys at the MA thread . I have seen guys post forcast soundings from pivotal. The LcL should be already plotted and easily visible.

Hopefully with the heat next week, we can stay Stein for a bit.

You as well as anybody knows how rare it is to get into the upper 90s or triple digits in New England.

Thanks for mentioning the micronet. I didn't know about it, only the state wide one. Unfortunately these geniuses decided that out of 23 stations, not a single one will be anywhere in the easte half of Queens. We don't matter much out here on the outskirts. But our property taxes do!

Same to you as well. Zero chance they fly sorry just saw this.

Yea there may be a random spot or two that get to 100 at least being shown right now but looks to be potentially our first official heat wave of the season, still a week+ out though so who knows. I will take this lack of heat when I can get it have not had to turn on the AC yet as we have been able to cool down at night properly. May was our first month above average rainfall wise around here in awhile the last time it happened was August of last year and the only reason was because of Debby had that not happened we probably would have gone almost 12+ months below average.