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One period in one month does not make a winter. You'll see ppl just focus on those select periods they got right, when what matters is the overall avg for the entire winter! "97-98 had a November winter event." Ok....many Novs do, your point? Dec 23, 1997 there was a surprise 1-2 footer in SNE. A winter event. Did that change anything in the mean for temp in the CONUS overall that winter? No. I had 42,6" that winter in Woburn. That's 15" below avg. I did have 6.4" in Nov which is above avg. But again, slicing and ice down short periods is cherry-picking. For Woburn,for the 4 very strong El Nino prior, one was close to avg snowfall (1982-83), and the other three below. That does not make a "big" winter in the @CoastalWx context!

Here we go. Massive extratropical WWB in the NH due to the N Pac cyclone. This will help flip the -PDO, and it’s why I say it’s a lagging indicator of ENSO, because the tropical coupling comes first, then the NHem coupling followed by the PDO.

I sounded exactly like you 30 years ago so it would be hypocritical of me to criticize your view. All I’ll say is let’s see if you feel the same way after banging your head into the same wall for 30 more years! Also, living where I do (there are some wonderful things of where I live and some of the people are nice) for the last 20 years has been eye opening. I’ve sat in the room at town hall meetings with people who most definitely wanted to hurt people. They were 100% motivated by hate. When some in town kept changing local ordinances to harass the local Hispanic population it wasn’t out of love. When I got into a fight with some loser chud at Walmart who was calling the Muslim cashier a “sand Nger” you think that was because he just wanted to make the most of his one spin? The contractor working on my deck who told me the best part of living her is there are no black people. Sure that was out of love. These clowns talk to me like I am one of them because of where I live and what I look like. I know exactly how evil many of the people around me are because they openly tell me. Sorry 20 years of that’s changed my opinion of the goodness of humanity.

Ehh. Not east of the city or anywhere near a coast.

Here are the CPC temp forecasts for winters 2013-14 to 2024-25 (left) and on the right as to what actually happened. This is not targeting CPC here, just showing how long-range forecasts are generally not good. There is a distinct warm bias for the winter forecasts in this particular case set.

who's ready for THIS?

Oh boy....

38.3 this morning

he's just salty 'cause the foliage this year has been great almost everywhere, except for the dullness for The Oaks at Tolland I'd be salty too if the foliage around me was meh and everyone else was enjoying a great season

If we do see a cold shot from this disruption, it’s likely to be brief. I mentioned that in the winter thread here. But that’s no different than other strong Ninos. 97-98 had a November winter event.

Also, regarding my previous post, when El Nino is this strong, mild air *rules* across most of the Lower 48 for most of the winter. The polar vortex is secondary. All other very strong El Ninos have had very mild conditions for the winter in the Lower 48. The only cold air shots, and they are not too intense and are brief, are in the Northeast. Why not just say that b/c you hare wx history and analogs to support your fcst. That is the most logical course and has a virtually 100% success rate given past event. Any more is just pure speculation and content to just draw out talk about the wx b/c it gets the ratings.

Min 25.1° Airport mins

This is one of the worst interviews I have ever seen. All I can say, the two ppl are both TOOLS in the own way. The Fox person is classic drama-hound w/ a forced urgent tone and keeps poking the person interview for certainties in the forecast ("meteorologists and climatologists aren't are quite sure what to make of it!" -- ???, just made up nonsense to set the drama tone). The person interviewed (Cohen) talks in vague and waffle terms, stating "anything is possible" and just goes back in forth w/ content that does not say anything that is of real practical value. It's all over the place, To the avg person, they get nothing out of this. Just hear stuff that's over their heads b/c of the meteorology complexity and nothing concrete, just a lot of "could happens" and "what ifs." Useless segment. Merely content to fill air time and of course its wx, so have to push that no matter what. The monetization of wx is out of control and it ruining the science. This obsession w/ advanced meteorology for public consumption is ridiculous. Let's sound techy to impress and feign like it is important. The avg person does not care, they just want the forecast and concise, reasonable statements, not all the drama, hedging and vagueness! Also, the polar vortex is pushed as some scary phenomena. It is *normal* feature of the polar regions, and yes, it does modulate cold air outbreaks into the CONUS and elsewhere in the world, but they just can't leave it at that. Just b/c the media says this meteorological term over and over and talks about it w/ all the drama, does *not* physically make it any more or less than it is! Once again, they turn the ordinary into the extraordinary merely for content and hype. Deplorable. Don't get me wrong, such a discussion like this ok, but it is made for meteorology circles b/c it is complex subject. Not being haughty or a snob, just I understand the audience here. Unlike ppl on this group, the vast majority don't give a hoot about such complex wx things. And for those who are interested, I am going to call out such an interview segment for it saying a lot w/o anything much of anything.

Not in the least. Again…if it snows at your house at 1000ft, but rains everywhere else…is it fake? So you’re so wrong on this, it isn’t even funny. I can’t wait for that to happen…FAKE SNOW!

What you just described in the last paragraph is exactly the definition of a fake airmass.

Looks humid end of next week

I’m not going to get angry….but there’s nothing fake about it. Is it radiational? Absolutely. But not fake. When it snows only at elevation, is it fake snow? I think we know the answer to that. So when I see fake cold….gonna push back every time. Such a stupid term…you guys should be ashamed of yourselves. Trees, plants, animals and people don’t know the sensible difference if it’s 29 at the surface, and 36 at 1000ft.

At least we have endless Indian Summer. Low 70s Friday.

No worries about the record ElNino.... APPARENTLY AN INCOMING SSWE IS GONNA SAVE US ALL !!!

Hilltops don’t do fake cold which is what this entire last few weeks has been. You know when it warms 30-45 degrees during the day it’s fake . We get cold on CAA. Cooler daytime highs as well in this fake stuff . You must be like Hunch is, in an elevated valley between hills

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the low to mid 40's. Highs will reach well into the 60's to near 70 degrees through Friday which is 5 to 9 degrees above normal before we chill down a bit to near normal by Saturday for the trick or treaters, but by Sunday we warm to the mid 60's which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. It has been a while since our last rain but a chance of a shower or two next Wednesday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 3 day storm that left as much as 6.97" of rain at the Nottingham DEOS. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the low to mid 40's. Highs will reach well into the 60's to near 70 degrees through Friday which is 5 to 9 degrees above normal before we chill down a bit to near normal by Saturday for the trick or treaters, but by Sunday we warm to the mid 60's which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal. It has been a while since our last rain but a chance of a shower or two next Wednesday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 3 day storm that left as much as 6.97" of rain at the Nottingham DEOS. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.