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Let’s get that down to 26hrs then we talking.

Rippin' puddles here.

The Hayli Gubbi eruption: Reddit link

A euro vs gfs showdown again Usually waa wins. Gfs evolution is just strange. Definitely need some sampling of this system to help models.

We're good.

Winter IS coming.

Yep... Agree

Kilauea is doing sustained summit eruptions and recurrent lava fountaining - not to sell it short, spectacular lava fountaining. Apparently Kilauea is under increased magma supply right now from the hotspot and it’s putting it to good use filling in the 2018 caldera. Mount Rainier is just normal rumblings of its hydrothermal system, if it were to progress to something more the activity would present quite differently IMO. Very likely absolutely nothing other than standard activity. Laki Laki has had the biggest eruptions in its know history this year, it too potentially being under a period of increased magmatic supply. Several substantial sub-plinian blasts, I think combined definitely VEI4 territory. Big story right now is in Africa, a volcanic vent that’s been dormant through the Holocene - Hayli Gubbi just had a substantial eruption, possibly a small 4 but a very gassy 4. The SO2 plume was actually similar to the early estimates of the MUCH larger Hunga Tonga eruption, which goes to show how eruption size doesn’t ALWAYS dictate the amount of gas reaching the stratosphere. Erta Ale, a very active system with a famous lava lake, had a bunch of its magma drain out and apparently form a lateral dike that extended under Hayli Gubbi, hit a pocket of stale, gassy magma, heat it up, and cause it to erupt. Super fascinating. Still ongoing too. We’ll see what happens. This theoretically could progress as I don’t think we really know what’s sitting under that system. The Afar region is poorly studied and monitored outside Erta Ale which is a big tourist attraction, well relatively speaking. The danakil depression / Afar region is super hazardous topography, very hot and very alien looking. Lot of crazy volcanism. Fernandina in the Galapagos is having a major swarm right now, that’s a very cool volcano that had a substantial and unusual basaltic plinian caldera eruption in the 1950’s. I think a large VEI 4, but still somewhat unique and was quite an intense (fast) event. We’ll see what happens. Lots of stuff going on right now, we’ll see how everything progresses.

18z vs 12z below

I stand by my statements that the GFS should get zero consideration in anything going forward. It’s not useful even from a 500 mb level in the medium range anymore. This summer was an all-time abysmal performance with the tropics and chasing extreme warmth that only happened once. With that being said, it’s a 2 in a room of 4s. I’m not bragging a bit on the other models. Even the AIFS which sniffed out the cold Dec start has endured a windshield wiper effect.

Scored more than up here lately.

18z GEFS didn't really change much from 12z.

It seems like GFS has been depicting year-round longrange torch exaggeration for about two years now.

Time will tell. At some point our crew gets to eat too. I still have a good feeling about next month. If we repeat the upcoming pattern later in winter, I won’t be as bullish for CAD regions because it would favor too much suppression.

I'm still in the warm/wet or cold/dry camp, for now. I agree that chances are next week won't work out along the coastal plain. But no two snow events are exactly alike. This period could work out, so we track.

Give the lowlands their due. They always deserve to score.

Something's got to give ..either that low gets pushed South or that warm air gets pushed North.

Let's hope we get a better end result for foothills areas

Shades of last winter. We saw this time and time again where models torched at range, only to come in colder and colder at 0 hour.

Pulling to banter - it was a foot of snow! I think it being finals was a big motivator and this was pre-Covid so things felt less flexible then they’ve become after. We had classes off for ~4” my senior year in 2022.

How much did uva get for that storm? Besides it’s not finals yet so who knows.

Weird cuz gfs has low pretty north but it's precip type is pretty much keeping it all snow here

Think you are gonna find out colleges don’t cancel easy - UVA had just a half day off during finals after Dec. 2018!

Can you or someone explain/show what we should look for in the Pacific as opposed to what we do not want? I enjoy reading and learning from you all in here. .