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Is the amplification currently being shown something that can be overstated in a Niña year on modeling?

latest discussion from WPC:

Just to rain on the parade a bit, The AI GFS and GEFS went slightly the other way at H5. Lots of members in both camps though so we track on.

When looking at the 00z runs tonight, pay attention to the difference in both waves out west between 0 hr in the new run vs 6 hr forecast in the previous run. That might give us clues IF there are any differences that stand out.

Just noticed this post now. I've had a cabin in Thornton for 15 years now. I love it up there. Not ideal for huge snow because it gets shadowed, but still averages in the upper 80-90". I chose my location based on proximity to my house in Lowell. I wanted a place I could get far enough north but within 90 minutes. You pay the NH real estate taxes which suck, but I suck it up for convenience. I also do a decent amount of skiing, so it's almost perfectly situated from many choices. I can get to WV, Loon, Cannon, Tenney within 30 mintes, and about 50 minutes to BW, not to mention our own little hill Campton Mountain less than a mile away where I taught my kids to ski. So it's also convenient to plenty of hikes. I also pay extra to be in a community with amenities like a rec center with pool, pond, gym etc.. Not for everyone, but it fit my family well. Let me know if you need any add'l info or to put you in touch with a real estate agent?

Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here. The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area. In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid. We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold. In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking. If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!

Need to run that map again at 120 hr to capture the backside snows for Hampton Roads

GFS doing that one last hope of more snow/sleet before the rug gets pulled entirely.

I think it is time to start 5 posting

Ukie only goes out to 66 hrs so here is comparison to 12z

GEFS trended better op tossed

Absolutely brother!

Try being a reddit mod.

As much as I'd love a total snow storm. This is screaming sleet and freezing rain.

GEFS says hold up! More amped and has more mixing

GFS definitely south. Think that’s the first model run all day I’ve seen with the LV with less than 10in

Should be around 6:15pm I believe but 12z was delayed so who knows.

Came here to say this. The Euro is dead to me.

We’re gonna reel this one back in. I feel it. Can you feel it too?

No bueno

Pretty sure sheared out is off the table here

Pretty sure it didn’t latch onto Feb ‘13 until the day of the storm.

Beautiful to see. Really really hope some of the 0z suite follows suit, hopefully with the new data..