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Woof!

Qpf is actually better.. EOR going to get destroyed

6z gfs has more snow in NYC than 0z

I was just going to post this, Wow!

Nothing like waking up this this morning to a text messages, of a Blizzard Warning. First time I every received a text message like that.

Looks like GFS might be a little south........goodbye SE Mass--it's been nice knowing you. At least I can enjoy the sound of the plow right now.

Yup big hit still

968 low on the gfs Jeez

WB 6Z GFS

GFS not backing down.

Gfs took a step towards the cmc imo Images are: 0z gfs vs 6z gfs (gif) 6z gfs vs 0z Canadian

Gfs and gfs AI

The difference is that GYX has to make the call between 1-2 and 3-7..

I can’t tell you how bad it irks me that NYC has a blizzard warning and we have a winter storm watch for maybe 5 inches… .

Okx mentioned uncertainty and that's why they went "conservative" with 14-18 otherwise NBM is 16-24 and waiting for more continuity to go bigger

If we get blasted, this thread should be archived.

I don't think this GYX AFD is accounting for the tick back SE. They do acknowledge surprise that the models aren't showing more along the Maine coast. In summary, confidence is increasing in the coastal plain seeing accumulating snowfall, with less confidence inland. Timing has also become clearer with snow likely not reaching our area until the early hours of Monday morning and lasting into early Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain, but with hi-res models now in the mix we should be able to lock onto a more certain track over the next 24 hours.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 421 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blizzard warnings have been issued for Long Island, New York City, and the Connecticut coast. Winter storm warnings have been issued for interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Blizzard conditions are expected along the coast with near-blizzard conditions across interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey Sunday night into the first half of Monday. 2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday. 3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area. A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h, tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday morning. This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter, will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time. Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area, highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS, and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the higher totals are not out of the realm possibility. Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

Thanks for watching over us

RGEM improved came NW but it was more of the SE models

Was in Quebec in the Gaspe’ peninsula until Wednesday night sledding…then we re entered the states, and saw you guys had it under control, so just lurked and kept quiet. I’m liking what I’m seeing though…very exciting to say the least.

Not at all. You just need to get your Airbnb location. As of right now my target is Fenwick Island, Del. Blizzard watches already up.

Missed u wolfie. You're the Yin to TBlizzs Yang. Balance is all out of whack. What happened no service up there?

That's snowfall depth? I'll take $17 billion on the under please.

Hi boys….I’m heading back from sledding this morning…let’s have a blizzard in SNE!!!