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I’m weighing it.

I finally get some qpf.

Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need

oh hells yeah

Insufficient blocking allows it to be pushed out as fast as it came in.

I was in Vermont back in 1994 I think, and saw the thermometer at -28 overnight, only to have a storm cut and we rained the same day.

Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy?

Yes the very heavy rates before the flip will be bittersweet. Gotta max out our thump.

I think us in monmouth are gona be in the battle zone .

It’s being laid out to pasture. So who knows?

Looks to be on an island though.

My buddy from the pics above is a little east of Jackson. FYI…. He sent me a video and the snow was falling like it’s high ratio stuff. Very fine but falling heavy .

Going to need the lake moisture magnet.

Yeah was gonna say shield your eyes on the MPAS cores… could be the worst of all of them

It looks like the storm maybe struggling to overcome the dry air in S OH. “Future radar” showing snow not starting here in KILN until very late in the day.

35 in Rockingham NC

My guess is that it struggles north of HFD to GHG or so. Just north of there to the pike perhaps it’s lift dependent where lighter echoes are sleet and snow mix due to various reasons. NoP is good.

see how much virga chips away at these big show numbers.

Air is dry. Going to take a while to make it to the surface

Very little freezing rain depicted in the Triad, except for maybe southeastern Alamance County

Booger-freezing cold 5 mile run this morning. Epic airmass.

Starting to see flurries here in West Knox!

Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time.

I know it’s a possibility. But does it happens?? I hope not haha

Yep, it really comes down to the radar presentation in the morning and nature of what's coming at us. I think the fundamentals of the storm are decided-it's a SWFE although much bigger and higher impact nationwide than usual, and there won't be redevelopment in time to stop warm mid level air enough for sleet from getting to 70-80% of us. This isn't one of our heavy snow setups for NYC-we're relying on a huge high pressure dome to provide overrunning and retreating confluence to provide some resistance but those won't be enough. We're making the best hopefully of a lousy storm setup for us in general. If we can make the most of the remaining mid level cold air with heavy steady snow we can get a higher end outcome like the HRRR or hi res RGEM. If it comes in like shredded garbage we'll end up with something like the NAM because all this moisture also will advance the warm air like gangbusters. Whether we like it or not or "vibes we give it" is irrelevant, it's just reality. In the January thread some are pointing out how the pattern should change to one that is more favorable for heavy snow in NYC and we will have cold around for quite some time so even if this one joins the long list of SWFE suckfests, there should be more opportunity and what we get will last for a long time.