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We rarely get good sustained southerly winds. It usually doesn’t mix down, but it has today. 53mph gust at DCA

With possible embedded rotations

18z ICON backed down to earth as expected.

Yes, extremely interesting. I also am hearing that an extremely potent jet streak it is expected to enhance convection and sheer from the middle Mississippi into the Ohio valley Sunday night into Monday . The last time I think any of us saw such robust nighttime convection this early in the season was 2011 and even that benchmark season waited until mid April to start it's nocturnal shenanigans. Apparently, the situation could be a lot more ominous had the last system not kicked the moisture.

I’m about 22” from my average at this spot since 2013. Certainly feasible but not guaranteed. If it happens, long duration cold plus best lake ice season since 2019 this winter could salvage a B-, otherwise it’s solidly in C category for this part of NNE

Looks like 1-2" for the Lake George-Saratoga region through early tomorrow from the latest clipper. Hoping for a little overperformance again...maybe a 2-4" thumpette, if we're lucky.

Jeff's first 18" event was 9.5" more than here and he's 4.2" ahead since Jan 31. Other than that, we're running about at climo, with the foothills about 15% higher than LEW. As for summer, we had some hot days, including only our 2nd official heat wave on August 11-13, but as climate is warming our convective SVR seems waning. Last year we had but 5 days with thunder, 3 fewer than any other year and 1/3 of average. Also haven't had significant effects from a TC since Floyd in 1999 or a real rain and blow since Bob.

I'm moving to Philly this year. How's this forum? I might be banned. Is there another place you guys like to post as well/

If you’re referring to the Euro it’s been doing that at times since late Feb and has never fully materialized. Sure, we have the post-storm cold blast, but it’s literally for only a couple days.

SPC has a disco for a day 4 threat. That rarely ever happens. Monday is the two deal for the S third of PA for multiple rounds of derecho-type storms

I hate 0.25"'s but stats padding is a necessity here. They add up. Seasonal snowfall to date: 14.25" 12/5: 1.75" 12/14: 1.0" 1/24-25: 8.5" 2/22-23: 2.0" 3/2: 0.75" 3/12: 0.25"

I just had a five day streak of 60+ (with 70+ at times), and even the cooler days like today are flirting with 50. It’s been pure spring mode here.

We were in PA for a family reunion when the mid-20s morning hit on May 18, 2023, but somehow we avoided serious damage. Our quinces and apples generally have peak blossoms in the May 15-25 period and last year they were right on time. Unfortunately, the weather wasn't - 19-25 had potentially over 100 hours of sunlight but that week had less than 30 minutes in total, and the average maxima was 50.6, which was 16° BN with nearly 3" of cold RA. The poor pollinators were absent for the most part until long after blossom peak, so fruit set was awful for the quinces and 2 of the 3 apples, barely reaching mediocre for the 3rd. Those few fruits had all the nutrients, however, for some of the biggest and nicest we've grown (though few and far between). 2010 was a different disaster, with Feb/Mar/April way AN (all 3 our mildest here) and blossoms were peaking by May 8-10. Then 11-13 had minima 23 to 26 and killed essentially every blossom, also torched the new growth on ash, maple, even some oak. The trees set new buds and shoots but used a lot more energy than in a normal growing season.

Hopefully, this wind dies down soon.

Euro has been all over the place, not sure it'd matter. I won't trust anything until tomorrow 0z at best.

Insane winds I hate this

We always make a spectacular showing that’s a month too late. It’s our thing round here

Comma head thunder pingers

They still kept Calvert and St. Mary’s out of it, but definitely is advisory level IMBY

Agreed glad something trended SE, not a fan that it was the NAM, would prefer Euro but its something.

I’m in the Philly thread all winter as I service accounts out that way for snow removal.No question, a band of scattered flurries can generate a 15 page thread.

If you believe long-range CFS forecasting, it could be a spring loaded with severe weather opportunities. High shear predicted going forward for most of Western PA and the Midwest. I've already seen a couple (weak) hook echoes attached to supercells on radar nearby, and the dying remnants of a wall cloud. Neither actually dropped a tornado, it would seem, but nonetheless unusual, especially for this early.

March is marching

Was gonna say, the change we want to see