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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
What’s so fantastic about it to see at this time of the year, that he was pointing out? -
Ji-bus answered your prayers
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Very striking similarities. I personally was praying for the nao ridge to split just enough to allow for a weakness in the flow for it to be drawn a bit more north. It happened. Crazy to look at the gfs op h5 and see essentially the same damn thing. This is going to be stressful tracking for many. Potential is there, keep expectations tempered for now.
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Picked the right dinner tonight. Listening to the wind throw twigs at the back of the house eating some Arabic meatball soup. Still dislike wind though.
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If only had that remote on the movie Click. Could tell it to fast foward to next snow storm. But that may back fire and skip ahead a few years lol.
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The snow showers and squalls from inland PA across New England are the real deal for through New Year’s Day. Heavier snow showers than usual and lake effect bands reaching farther inland than would normally result on the backside of a Great Lakes storm. Hopefully we can get some accumulation down here New Year’s Day but models have really backed off on that and it seems like a dried out frontal passage at best now
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Good reminder to folks that it's more than the pretty colors. While this may well evolve into a significant block, as you note, the current depiction of that upper height field does not qualify as a block; at least not yet.
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Ice Ice Baby December 28-29 Storm Discussion
dendrite replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Tippy -
This actually may be a great time to take a break and come back on Friday, lol
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Finally feels like winter again. Grass was getting green and some flowers were trying to come up
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Funny enough I think that was on a little of analogs somebody shared yesterday about for this window.
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18z euro ai has the storm. But it’s well off the coast.
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Yep we only got 2 inches of snow out of a great pattern here so they dont always produce but just stating that we have seen better looks before and we shouldn't act like this is the best look ever. One thing that could make this year better with less cold is the possibility of an active STJ. It was quite weak all of last winter.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
HBGCPA10 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Lights flickered twice around 5:30 in West Hanover Township. -
I will go on record as saying there is actually a bit more upside possible still with this one wrt the NAO region still showing some ridging and blockiness. Anyone saying I need to show more optimism, we'll, there ya go.
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Thank god the 384hr gfs is always correct.
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Hopefully the GFS is starting to get a clue now. The EPS looks pretty good especially towards the middle of the month.
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Ice Ice Baby December 28-29 Storm Discussion
Lava Rock replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Stay warm. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk -
Buncho we have 6 hours to enjoy this. Go back to hr246.
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the ending wave on the 18z GFS would be a cold rainstorm for most.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The January 8th/9th period is looking even more interesting. Great potential showing on the 12z Canadian & 18z GFS. -
December 2009 repeat.
