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Storm literally disappeared on the icon

Kinda looks like Christmas eve,1988

Pretty much inevitable there would be some form of pattern relaxation. The saving grace from probably not getting into a lengthy torch is the WPO is forecast to remain strongly negative, which keeps cold air discharge going into our source region. The EPO may head back toward neutral heading into Christmas week and then perhaps back to negative thereafter. I think with the likelihood of new snow on top of the melted and consolidated snowpack through this weekend and then the deep freeze for a couple days, if we can avoid a high dew point rain event, snowpack retention should be decent before a true pattern reload commences. Also with the -WPO that means CAA behind fronts should be fairly robust. Milder more zonal patterns often end up cloudy which typically isn't effective at melting much snow this time of year, again unless you get a couple days of high dew points. Even at over two weeks out, I'd lean towards Chicago having its first official white Christmas in a while. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Laughable changes

Looks workable. Would rather there be cold air looming around nearby with room for the southern stream to juice up than be in a suppressive / fast NS dominated pattern all winter. When cold patterns / blocking relax is when we tend to get our biggies

Milwaukee area radar

I had a nice dusting this morning in Fuquay-Varina. Nice surprise. I had to sleep and missed it. It was a nice surprise for SE wake!!!

Such a crap model

First bands all snow so far but the dewpoint is 32.

ICON completely lost Sunday's wave

Actually, the model in the 500mb progs has been pretty decent overall, but it's not a normal dynamical model, so it doesn't follow the same exact principles and biases that other models do. It is basically one giant analog that uses historical variance and comes out with a progression that makes sense given recent patterns. The issue with the AIFS and AIFS ensemble is it doesn't account for those dynamical inputs that provide more detailed QPF distributions and more advanced ptype algorithms. I use it for a proxy in QPF (Spatial) and the mean 500mb pattern. The rest you have to use your meteorology and some real time context for what could transpire given the forecast pattern evolution. You have to be careful with the AI at long leads as the model will still be subject to variability due to temporal regulation and the idea of chaos increasing in a dynamical fluid (Atmosphere) as we move out in time.

Will it know about the damaging effects of the sun angle on snow accumulations?

DC would average 20" lol

Maybe look up the definition of the word historic. I don't think you're using it correctly.

I was trying to zoom in to see if the plates but my eyes suck. I'll remove the post.

AI bros ftw

Beautiful state in any season. I grew up about 25 miles north of WV in SE Ohio

It says on the caption it's ai generated lol

Yeah, that tipped me off too. I don’t know what’s going on there, but that’s not Portland the other day.

At 8:30 it was raining in Holland and transitioned to snow around Zeeland with white roads by the time I got to Hudsonville.

Schools already closing in anticipation for this event

Let’s just get rid of PA and turn it into a Great Lake.

That's not Portland, Plate on that vehicle is not from Maine, Neither are those vehicles.

Probably no more CAD events, but lot more lake effect bands, light events that get chewed up etc.