All Activity

Just so we are all on the same boat as for locations with February anomalies: DCA: Washington Reagan (-3.8) NYC: Are we using JFK, LGA, or central park data? (-4.7, -4.6, -4.4 respectively) BOS: Logan Airport (-3.3) ORD: O'Hare or Midway? (+4.3, +3.9) ATL: Hartsfield (+3.1) IAH: Houston Bush (+6.1) DEN: Denver is a tricky one with the airport like 5 miles away from downtown but there is a Denver central park site (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=bou) (+9) PHX: Phoenix Airport (+7.8) SEA: Seattle-Tacoma or Boeing Field? (+0.4, +1.1) Any input/changes are appreciated!

I'm just biding my time right now. I will be in Ft. Wayne until 6-ish for my maintenance chemo. Will be keeping a close eye on radar so maybe I can get out of Dodge before the storms get here for a back yard chase, but will try to stay out from under any stones. Will have the wife with me who hates to chase, but she will be recruited if need be. lol

Agreed. Not sure what SPC is seeing. That cf really surges south fast.

Next 10 days look miserable. This time of year blows

Give this man a gold start. Amen.

You are in good shape, Jerry...lots of folks maintain vitality and independence into their 90s...you keep active, too...physically and mentally. I Look forward to exchanging obs during winter 2037-2038....if Tip doesn't engineer to have the sun swallow us whole by then.

Y'all are crazy. I'd much prefer -10F than 90F. If it's 90F it better be 20% RH and breezy.

I would be down to keep giving it a try. As for scoring this may take time to figure out but we can at least post the results for each month as well as snowfall and Max temps. I think it would be great to keep it going in honor of Roger.

We can score it our own way. I have no idea how he scored things but if someone comes up with a good way, they should go for it.

I see what you are saying based off the RONI, but it didn't hit 0.5 again until February 1953....the MEI actually dipped negative briefly in December 1952 and didn't hit 0.5 again until March. Based on this, the answer is "no"....1952-1953 was neutral. https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

Couldn't 1951-52 and 53-54 be considered part of the same, albeit disjointed, el nino? I find it amazing how the PDO stayed negative during an entire triple-year el nino.

Looks to me like 1957 is a bit better of a QBO analog, and 2002 a better solar analog....neither one are awful polar analogs, though. 2002-2003 flipped to negative QBO at 30mb and 1957-1958 was right at solar max. 2026-2027 will positive at 30 and 50mb, like 1957-1958, and descending past solar max, like 2002-2003. I see no reason why we should be resigned to an awful winter....locking in an east-based super El Niño is every bit of a wish cast as anything else at this early juncture.

72 today. Last weeks snow is a very distant memory.

Gore today…

Hey Don, Phoenix had a high of 100 today, the 8th day in a row of 100+! Before 2026, there had been only one March day of 100+ and that was right at 100 on March 26th! Holy cow!

CC: @Rainshadow, @CAPE and @MGorse

for the illinois end of the risk tomorrow, it looks like a (big) hailer day. that 5% hatched tor is way overdone.

I would not be shocked to see Hagens before the season ends but the team may prefer him get playoff experience with Providence and may not want to burn his first year of an ELC for what only may amount to a handful of games. I was 100% confident they would have signed Hagens to his ELC once BC season ended but given they didn’t, not sure they will now.

I did not, I had something to do after work and Bruins are playing. If bruins were off tonight I probably would have. With going to Miami this weekend I won’t be able to watch Saturday night and I can’t even get updates for Sunday’s game. Flight back is 6:30 and game is 6:30 and I’m flying Avello which has no WiFi

I'd want to continue to play in his memory. Like you, I don't know how he calculated his curve.

Unseasonably warm air will briefly move into the region tomorrow. Hights will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Friday will be somewhat cooler with highs reaching the middle 50s. Another cold front could cross the region on tomorrow night or Friday. The front will bring a few showers or thundershowers. The weekend will start on a cold note with the low temperature likely near or even somewhat below freezing in New York City and high temperatures in the middle 40s on Saturday. Sunday will become somewhat milder. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.585 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed. I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that.

I hope they have some heavey's to keep that stuff at a minimum. I suspect within 3 or 4 games you will see him with the team.