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In Northern Maine? Methinks yes

Looks like it's going to scrape the de facto independent country of Taiwan. Google AI had it turning toward Japan the whole time. Traditional models had to fold their FuJian Province, China landfall. This is interesting because it's not a true China typhoon or a straight to Japan storm. They have opposite signs for the Southeast. Not only is the track in between; seasons are in between also. Signs flip in summer or winter. Of course no typhoons in winter, but MJO can echo the effect. So what will happen? I actually won't argue with a -NAO in a couple weeks. Unfortunately the PDO situation favors a Western US dump. East could escape. Heck even Europe could escape, but that also depends on a Scandinavia block. Can we order a Beast from the East for Russia that does not get into Ukraine? Like dealing cards, lol! Oh my! That's a little far from the Tennessee Valley. Unlike with weather forecasts, some things are black and white right and wrong. I'll just leave it there.

Ground frost? lol not this winter

Let’s dry out the wells.

Respectfully, sir...this is an all-time record niño with being the furthest east on record. Warm, warm, warm! Outside chance of a fluke during prime window if we are even capable of getting it cold enough and timed well--but that's about it. I mean that's just the reality of what we're heading into--no sense trying to look for what might be different or whatever...outcome is kinda historically baked in to me.

Really wish I could get out and enjoy this perfect autumn weather.

folks with the late october calls heading for a bustville

All that red along the central coast will be wiped out when the map updates tomorrow - we got slammed with rain here in Santa Barbara County over the last 36 hours, with thunderstorms still popping up as the ULL spins. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Just a general comment. Vibe in here is too negative. There is model consensus that we will have an active jet stream this winter with above normal precipitation. With a little luck, we will time some of the wet weather with cold enough air for snow. It is not a shut the blinds see you next winter pattern forecast. Relax and let's see what happens.

The snow is coming, be careful.

Must be nice.

Yet another head fake…November better not yield another can kick.

no complaints here, bring on the 60s and dry

Who’s saying impressive Brett? We were talking about who frosted and who didn’t. It wasn’t about being impressive. We are exactly where we should be…the step down has been right on track. Do you have complaints(I know dumb question…when don’t you)? And we’ve frosted a couple weeks ago already…which wasn’t even close to November lmao.

should get used to this look

Latest Arctic ice falling back closer to the mean as the Arctic N of 80N anoms have warmed considerably: