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I think extra cloud cover from more open sea area and thus evaporation is a good candidate. But its also plausible it could be traced back to the same patterns driving the west Pacific warm pool/-PDO that has been dominant over most of this same period. Interesting to think about anyway. I am not totally sure we cool that area below 30C but it is possible. Perhaps more likely is if the area to the east is enough warmer, along with the circulation you mentioned, it can at least put a lid on convection near the MC. Then you'd at least have the dominant forcing away from 4-5-6.

Latest CFSv2 is more indicative of a basin-wide event. Have to keep an open mind here because I think basin-wide is def on the table (not just east-based).

This thing is like Pac man, just swallowing whatever is in its path (luckily probably not much). Thing seems to have a nasty RIJ

I deal more in persistence rather than whether something is permanent or not. Will let history decide in the future whether something that we have been experiencing turns out to be permanent or not. Agree with you 100% that the ridges have been getting stronger over time regardless of El Niño or La Niña. But all the record warmth we have experienced in the East since March has occurred as forcing crossed the Maritime Continent. This degree forcing there at times wasn’t present when we had cooler SSTs during earlier super El Niños like 1997. Recent studies have shown more persistent forcing there as the Indio-Pacific warm pool has continued to expand. This is also why our last 2 super El Niños in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 featured at least one winter month with forcing from the IO to WPAC which didn’t occur with past super El Niños also noted in recent papers. Forcing in those areas most of the time results in a ridge setting up over the East.

All misses down here this weekend. I could see the clouds off to the NW, but they never materialized into rain. It was pretty darn hot yesterday. My PWS peaked at 93.6 with a DP of 77. That calculates a heat index of 108. I'm confident that my PWS overestimates the DP consistently, but the point still stands: it's hot.

Can we try again this week?

Classic EWR arm pit KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/29/2026 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06 CLIMO X/N 88| 69 91| 72 101| 79 101| 79 102| 74 98| 74 94| 72 90 65 85

I was doing a little snooping on the Noaa weather site to see if its possible anyone gets close to 80 dewpoint. Wednesday afternoon has many in the high seventies with a threat of storms. Anyone who gets an afternoon storm, must walk out after and feel the jungle moister.

I'm working outside Thur. - Sun. at the farm. If I'm going to suffer, I want to suffer in rare conditions.

You monster.

The CFS is still forecasting Nino 4 to reach a +2.5C monthly peak, which is not at all indicative of a relatively severely E based Nino like 1997, when it peaked at a mere +0.7C. It would even obliterate the monthly record peak of +1.5 of 2023-4 as well as the +1.4 of 2015-6, +1.1 of 2009-10, +0.9 of 1957-8, +0.9 of 1991-2, +0.8 of 1965-6, and +0.7 of 1972-3:

But how much warmth can we say is because of “unusually strong MC forcing for a Nino”and not plain climate change? Every ridge these days seems to be record breaking. It’s not like it was 65-70 every day during the previous super Ninos - we had warmups during those too, but since we had a much cooler baseline, they did not set records. I just don’t think we can default to blaming the MC every time or pretend that MC forcing never existed at all during Ninos back then. This developing Nino also seems to lack a -NAO but since our sample size is pretty small it may be less correlated to begin with. I’ll agree that if this winter we see some major P4-6 activity like we did in 15-16 again then something is up. I’m just not ready to say it’s a permanent feature.

Lets got for widespread 105/75

Finally got a clean pass from Sentinel of the Winni microburst area. You can really see a few areas of concentrated damage, namely Cow Island, around Fox Point, and sporadic to the east until just east of Gov Wentworth Highway.

I honestly think those folks on here that wish/hope for as hot as possible temps are nutty in a way that only they can be (and I mean this mostly lovingly). You can easily bundle up in cold....not really an "easy" way to not be drenched in sweat...

I understand the conservative tendency ... I'm inclined to lean that way myself just because - However, it's quite soundly objective to consider that we live in a world with so-dubbed "Synergistic Heat Waves", codified phenomenological event type by ongoing attribution sciences. One such characteristic of which ... the scalar ranges of the max of this type of resonant feed-back anomaly is that they exceed expectations ( typically ...) of either machine or man forecaster. We risk missing this in our region ...due to our "unbelievability" that's part of our heat bias here. We've had some discussion recently over whether that can happen here. I think that's kind of risking a fallacy though. Because it's not a yes or no. Synergy is a quotient. So a partial synergistic kick-back could be in play here - we just are far less likely to incur a Pacific NW, or France sort of large over-performing return values. But "our version" of a synergy, considering that is taking place over top a background that increasingly favors them everywhere, may be 104.

Always seem to get something on or around the 4th around here. A couple years ago I was at a fireworks show with epic lightning and an approaching storm in the distance and that wasn’t the first time. Wouldn't hate if that happened again. Not looking like that’ll happen on the 4th which I guess is good but seems to happen a lot

Ill sell 104, but may get a shot at 100. Mixing looks pretty good. Should mix out the dews in the afternoons anyway

Oh hell yes. Y’all don’t know just how miserable it can be to work outside for days in heat like what’s coming. Big heat in summer was the #1 thing I hated about work. Ticks, chiggers, poison ivy, snakes, almost getting hit by cars was gravy compared to dehydration and heat exhaustion.

The Indian Ocean into West Pacific wasn’t anywhere near as warm back in 1972, 1982, and 1997 during those developing super El Niños. This is one of the reasons that those years didn’t feature the record warmth that we have from had from March, April, May,June, and into July in the East. The other reason is probably the record mid latitude SST warmth that didn’t exist back in those days. All of these features including the much warmer planet and drought are contributing factors. Record heat every month starting back in March with new monthly maxes tied or set in May. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1843-05-01 through 2026-06-27DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 3/10 82 in 2026 81 in 2016 76 in 2006 3/11 82 in 2026 75 in 2021 71 in 1977 4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 5/19 99 in 2026 98 in 1962 93 in 2017+ 6/11 97 in 2026 96 in 2000 96 in 1984

you know .. this reminds me. I really wanna create an index: Integrated Heatwave Energy. It would not have to apply strictly to whether 90 F, then 3-consecutive days. Different discussion. It just borrows the name 'heatwave', but it's intent is to track warm anomaly in general. This could be calculated for any degree(s) over any time(s). And it doesn't have to be just heat. The calculation can end up with negative (cold anomalies). It's not just for show and tell. The index could also be calculated for heat waves in the past and be useful to climate during this era of D(c). Past data is readily available if not reconstruct -able. I'm thinking using hydrostatic heights over time, then combined with the kinetic surface readings. This, because the hydrostats have the water already integrated into the column, so the enthalpy can be derived out of that mass, then added to the kinetic enthalpy of the time based integral in question ( so if it's 99 for 2 hours ...that actually is less thermodynamic total energy than 92 for 10 hours..etc). You could calculate for any time range. Something like that. The energy that's contained can then be used to scale and rank these events. I bet there's been some dewy heat in the past that would rank sneaky high, probably higher even than some kinetic bombs of lore. I've seen it be 95 in May over DPs of 53 several times. It felt pretty damn hot. But 89.5/76 dwarfs that for #of a Hiroshima bombs available to the system. Could calculate that total enthalpy of your time range ( basically a integral of latency + kinetic, over time), then divide it by the Hiroshima yield, and then say ... this was a 100,000,000 Hiroshima event. Although that title might not be totally WOKE ha

Falls Lake after yesterday's rain saw a little bump. I assume it will drop again during the heatwave but the bleeding has stopped temporarily:

Looks like its about to split

It's like a massive supercell MCS Those storm tops may be exceeding 70,000 feet lol