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Buda has fallen to 79/59 average highs/lows. However we are headed for summerlike 90s. I think Central Texas will experience an unusual anomaly associated with this Nino. We will be well west of The Plume, and somehow also much warmer than usual throughout the Nino Event. Since the Base State will be much warmer in 2027, the Summer of 2027 will break hundreds of high temperature records in Texas. I now expect a very dry autumn and winter for Buda, as well as a very dry Spring in 2027, that will also be associated with much warmer temperatures right into Summer next year that shall be catastrophic for my part of the world. The southeast and Mid Atlantic will be troffy, very wet and Mid Atlantic will also experience snows associated with arctic air masses that time with prodigious moisture throughout the Nino Event.

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal mean wind prog is even weaker than yesterdays, which had its lowest at 14 m/s, with it down to 12 m/s:

Wow…everybody saying the same thing in New England about what a great foliage year. Nice picture.

February 1983 and January 2016 were not regional and were both much better than the overhyped March 1993. Name me any other storm with record setting 30 inch snowfall at both Allentown and JFK. Even December 1992 without any significant snow here was far more extreme than the so-called "super storm. " The 2016 Blizzard was the Michael Jordan of snowstorms the GOAT of all superblizzards! 01-02 was the worst winter of my lifetime but followed by a wonderful April with the bluest skies I've ever seen and a great summer! If you hand over your site to him your site will disappear. I picture him pressing a button that he has no idea what it will do and POOF! If we ever get to control the climate this is the first thing I would fix, with massive underwater turbines to mix up the water which would cause it to cool. What caused the Kara block that led to the historic January 2016 super blizzard? Their historic 40/40 season. The only other place on the east coast that had that was Norfolk, VA in 1965-66 another strong el nino. In my experience January 26th is the cut off point. Even in the historic season of 1977-78 that's when we had our first big snow. In November 2012 we had our earliest ever double digit snowstorm! Not by a long shot lol the 1980s were much worse. The 1990s had two historic seasons. I buy Pinatubo for the summerless 1992 but how do you explain the record setting 1993 and 1995 summers? And Pinatubo wasn't some supervolcano it was only a VEI 6 eruption. The 70s and 80s were much colder than the 90s with far less snow. The point being that you dont need it to be very cold to snow. As a matter of fact it can be too cold to snow.

free libertybell

But you forgot December 1992 which was much much more devastating for coastal areas than March 1993 could ever be. It even exceeded Ash Wednesday 1962 here.

Hopefully our backs are sore from lots of shoveling this Winter!

We had the mother of all inversions last night! The low at Mount Pocono was 47 while it was 37 at Scranton. It got down to 44 here. All the local forecasters said the higher winds kept the temperature higher in the mountains. It was 34 at Schnecksville which is where my nursery is located, south and west of here. The high was 66 here the perfect cloudless blue sky day, I spent the entire afternoon hanging up paintings. I have to find this beauty. I remember that as the best October we have ever had. 0 rainfall! Like a perfect game lol. The perfect weather. How do you handle the cold nights? Your pipes will freeze! This is the perfect weather no one should have any complaints about this idyllic pattern. Wow it's very beautiful! Thanks please let me know Don I'm interested in acquiring one of these for my rose garden! This is the absolute perfect weather Tony Did that October 1996 storm affect us? I dont remember it. And how much did we get in the 1940 snowfall? LGA has a very artificial microclimate I trust their numbers even less than NYCs. I don't know I guess I just dont see the point of having a vegetable garden. They're not pretty to look at and they don't last that long you have to replant them every year. I used to do that years ago but no longer. They attract too many unseemly insects. The last year I had a vegetable garden was 2013. I graduated to planting ornamental trees and bushes that will exist long after I'm gone. They're also great for the environment and attract many birds and butterflies and even rabbits and deer. A male deer came here right to my windows today as I was hanging up paintings of...... what else, deer lol. He was really curious and stared right at me and even stopped chewing on the plants I have near one of my ponds to look lol. This summer I planted bee balm which is a hummingbird magnet. My dear dad planted mint here more than 30 years ago that's still alive. There's Japanese Maples on this property that our family planted back in the early 90s. But if you are going to plant a vegetable garden you can't complain about it not raining. My view on that is when you plant something it's your responsibility to water it, not Mother Nature's. Besides I happen to love watering because the water goes exactly where I want it to not places where I don't want it. And rainfall brings too many insects specifically mosquitoes which I really despise!

I'll be watching your back, you can be certain of it!

Thanks, I’m starting to get excited about the upcoming season. Hopefully lots of short range tracking with plenty of maps that lead us to lots of shoveling snow for all of us!

I think it is because I bought my kids new rain gear for the fall. This dry spell is incredible.

the worst part was the color of everything is tan or Terra Cotta...bridges and overpass, match the landscape...was there for a month once, so I decided to drive to the Grand canyon and didn't realize the temp difference from PHX to there was like 60 degrees+ and freezing there, beautiful to see but honestly not worth the drive and money, packed with people too.

Anybody reading this from Arizona? There's a rare enhanced risk for severe storms in Arizona, with 5% risk of tornadoes.

Fall color update from Little Lost Cove Cliffs this morning. Exceptional amount of green for October 20th. Color level still up around 3500-4000ft, tons of green on the Parkway over Grandfather even. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

I agree, and have stated that there will be cold air lurking. The conus will definitely be flooded with pacific air at times. With a super amped STJ there will also be plenty of storms. Just need to link up the cold with one of the storms. It’s pretty simple but impossible to forecast at these lead times. I think it’s a safe bet somone in the east gets this to workout. It’s happened in every other super Nino. Those storms tended to be more regional unlike March 93. And something similar could easily be on the table .

I mean December was an expected loss anyway. Hoping for the late January into February/March boom

Not a bad day. The earliest I have ever skied is early December.

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -35.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.237 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Beech and obviously birch do yellow pretty well. I agree, oak sucks. The one in my front year is usually shedding until the following spring.

Hey look what I found (cover your eyes Wiz!

I was in Phoenix about 30 years ago to visit a friend and we had a wild thunderstorm at night. Absolutely loved it. But yea phoenix itself does little for me

Started here this weekend, its easier to do it in chunks. We're surrounded by woods so a good blower does 90% of it.