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70 so far the wind's a no show here. Perhaps we have a thinly stable layer just yet...

TORCH! up to 70 here

May 5 1965: At least 7 tornadoes hit southern Minnesota. This outbreak is a preview of what would happen the next day… For Tuesday, May 5, 2026 1917 - The same storm which a day earlier produced eight inches of snow in the Texas panhandle, produced a foot of snow at Denver CO, their heaviest snow of record for the month of May. (David Ludlum) 1930 - The temperature at College Park, VA, soared from 43 degrees to 93 degrees to begin an exceptional heat wave. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. A dozen cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 93 degrees at San Francisco, 98 degrees at San Jose, 100 degrees at Sacramento, and 101 degrees at Redding, were the warmest of record for so early in the season. The high of 94 degrees at Medford OR was also the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - Parts of the western U.S. were in the midst of a blistering May heat wave. The reading of 100 degrees in Downtown Sacramento CA was their earliest of record. Sacramento CA established daily record highs on nine of eleven days between the 4th and the 14th. (The Weather Channel) 1988 - A stubborn low pressure system continued to drench the eastern U.S. with rain. Thunderstorms again produced large hail in North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms swept across Georgia and the Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening hours spawning seventeen tornadoes. A tornado at Toccoa GA injured 15 persons, and a tornado at Chesnee SC killed two persons and injured 35 others. Five tornadoes in North Carolina accounted for five deaths, 88 injuries, and sixty million dollars damage. Thunderstorms also produced baseball size hail at Lake Murray SC, and wind gusts to 78 mph at Brooklyn MD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A strong Pacific cold front moving rapidly inland caused weather conditions at the east end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Washington State to quickly change from sunny and calm to westerly winds of 60 mph and ten-foot waves. Three recreational fishing boats capsized in heavy seas off Port Angeles resulting in five deaths. In California, temperatures soared above 90 degrees across much of the state. The high of 101 degrees in downtown Los Angeles was eight degrees hotter than their previous record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Also, note that climo used for CFS is 1984-2009, which is cooler than 1991-2020. If these CFS happen to verify, they’d make much more sense vs history of strong El Niño with their coolest anomalies in the S US vs the coolest anomalies on Cansips being in the N US, which is extremely out of sync with strong Nino climo. Also, the CFS has had and continues to have a stronger and more E based Nino vs a not quite as strong C to W based Nino on the Cansips runs: CFS: E based Cansips: C to W based

After May 20th I think

The weeklies and charts performed extremely poorly for this whole cold month period you had

It's basically just seasonal increases in baseline temps, which we take. But yeah I don't see a torch imminent either

another modeled wet couple days has turned into .10 to .30 of QPF

That's a day 14 hope. Really don't see any huge pattern change that DIT is touting. What happened to his hot Mayorcĥ? He was touting 80 today. Gonna be tough

30 and snow shwrs this morning. Brr!

Was doing nicely warming up but clouds have put a lid on things

Already sweating Awful

Ensembles also showed the trough shifting out so that usually implies a warm up.

82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave “The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in parts of N/NE Texas this evening, if the cap can break. If North Texas can see more sun today, there will be a higher chance of storms. Large hail would be the main threat, but all hazards would be possible. The HRRR shows storms firing over DFW around 6 pm. Higher threats exist farther northeast in Arkansas/Tennessee. Similar story tomorrow for parts of Central/East Texas. Higher severe threats farther east into southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

I already have 4 inches and it is really coming down. The NWS increased my point forecast and is now up to 26” today thru tomorrow.

Had 37F for a min and already 64F. Just straight up temperature curve.

well sign me up

06z NAM started slashing snow totals. We'll see if the others do so at 12z.

Good morning Don, BW, T4S’s. I m curious, when looking at Central Parks 19.7 and considering surrounding totals, if it’s measurement is accepted? Stay well. As always ….

Only lasted 20-25 minutes but like other mentioned, quality lightning show!

JMA monthly sniffed it out last week

For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered.

Nice morning, 61/53 here already, but showers heading this way, where did those come from ?