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True, I wouldn’t take my chances either

Good thing we're so good at threading needles!

The site also looks like it’s missing Nov 10-12, 1987 for the early season notable storms. Oct 10, 1979 is another good one.

Is it colder for the middle and end of week waves? Like snow/ice?

This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days…

Thanks! I just noticed the other sections for the May 2002 and Oct 2020 events. I have snowfall map booklets from a private wx company I worked for in the late 80s/early 90s that lists all snow events from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. Let met dig those out of storage at home and I'll give you a list of the more significant ones. Here's one from Mar 22, 1977 I can recall offhand. A blockbuster coastal storm lashed New York and New England. Norfolk, Connecticut was buried under 33 inches of snow. 24 inches was reported at Pittsfield, Massachusetts and 18 inches piled up at Gardner, Massachusetts. Snow amounts exceeded 30 inches in the Catskills in southeastern New York. 3 to 5 inches of rain deluged south coastal New England and wind gusts reached 60 to 90 mph. A 450 foot radio tower in Framingham, Massachusetts was toppled by the high winds. Oh and this one! Oct 3-4, 1987 A rapidly deepening coastal storm dumped record early snows in eastern New York, western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Vermont. Grafton, New York was buried under 22 inches and Pownal, Vermont recorded 18 inches. This was primarily an elevation storm but even Albany, New York received 6 inches of very wet snow. Damage to trees was extensive since many of them were still in full leaf. Road crews had to scramble to get their plows on as the snow caught everybody off guard.

How many times have we seen this map on either the Euro or EuroAI? Crazy. But they have yet to be correct. And no, I don't consider 1/25 anything close to this map or previous similar ones this year.

Based on 500mb vort, euro ai is a thread the needle timing play for next weekend. Will have to wait to see more support from other models by Wednesday

@canderson this is for you buddy. I analyzed wind over the past 90 years. The biggest issue is reliable hourly wind gust data isn't available until the mid-90s. But Bottom line Mean sustained winds: slightly up (tiny trend, noisy). Top 1% sustained winds: slightly up (even noisier). Gusts: “mean gust” trends are not trustworthy without adjusting for measurement practice changes; extreme gusts look mostly steady. Quantity vs speed: quantity is basically flat; any change is more “speed nudge” than “more windy hours.” the key nerd truth: gust trends are extremely sensitive to “are we comparing apples to apples” (instrument/reporting regime). So I ran it two ways: 1) Modern period, all years available (1996–2024) This uses all years in 1996–2024, but note gust/peak-gust availability varies a lot year to year. What the raw trend says (per decade): Mean sustained speed: –0.65 mph/decade (R²≈0.31) Top 1% sustained speed (P99): –1.18 mph/decade (R²≈0.28) Mean hourly gust: –1.16 mph/decade (R²≈0.21) Top 1% hourly gust (P99): –2.99 mph/decade (R²≈0.20) Mean “peak gust within hour”: –0.49 mph/decade (R²≈0.13) Top 1% peak gust (P99): –1.12 mph/decade (R²≈0.05) Interpretation: those big negative trends are a flashing red sign for reporting/instrumentation mix effects, not “Harrisburg winds are collapsing.” So we do the sane thing… --- 2) “Apples-to-apples” subset: years with consistent gust coverage (2008–2024) I restricted to years where gust and peak-gust are recorded a lot (so the metric isn’t biased by selective missingness). That leaves 2008–2024 (14 years). Intensity trends (mph per decade) Mean sustained speed: +0.13 mph/decade (R²≈0.05) → basically flat Top 1% sustained speed (P99): –0.75 mph/decade (R²≈0.09) → basically flat/noisy Mean hourly gust: +0.87 mph/decade (R²≈0.33) → modest upward signal Top 1% hourly gust (P99): +0.84 mph/decade (R²≈0.06) → weak/noisy Mean peak gust: –0.08 mph/decade (R²≈0.00) → flat Top 1% peak gust (P99): +0.98 mph/decade (R²≈0.05) → weak/noisy Quantity trends (frequency; percentage-points per decade) Computed as “of gust observations that exist, what % exceed threshold”: Hourly gust frequency: Gust ≥30 mph: +4.23 pp/decade (R²≈0.28) Gust ≥40 mph: +0.80 pp/decade (R²≈0.08) Peak-gust-within-hour frequency: Peak ≥40 mph: –1.48 pp/decade (R²≈0.03) → flat/noisy Peak ≥50 mph: +0.62 pp/decade (R²≈0.12) → weak/noisy Interpretation: In the most consistent era, the cleanest “signal” is more frequent ≥30 mph gusts (quantity), while the top 1% intensity is mostly noisy/flat. Sustained hourly speed looks basically flat. --- Your “Speed or quantity?” question — answered For sustained winds: neither intensity nor frequency screams “up.” It’s mostly flat in the consistent-era view. For gusts: the best-supported change is quantity (more ≥30 mph gusts), while “top 1% intensity” is not robust (too noisy + sensitive to measurement definition). If you want, I can tighten this even further by: using seasonal bins (DJF/MAM/JJA/SON) for gust thresholds (often cleaner than annual), and/or using percentiles computed from a fixed reference period (e.g., define “top 1%” using 2008–2014 and apply it to all years) so “top 1%” doesn’t move just because the distribution shifts. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

decent lol. Its a hecs compared to what we have had since 2016

https://www.weatherbell.com/ watch the Saturday Summary

Shucks. Pdiii(once removed)

Yep pretty decent look, though the slice of latitude that will get substantial snows is pretty thin. Put together a bit of a rambling post in the main thread as to why I think the GFS is too far south

We're BACK!!!!!

12z euro ai looks like a decent hit next Sunday-Monday

PD is tomorrow.

False Spring is an endorphin rush.

Yeah it’s basically a temporary spike producing a good Rockies ridge…not a classic full scale PNA ridge but eastern Rockies ridges have often produced excellent systems. That allows the shortwave to dig more and produce a coastal. We just don’t know quite yet where it makes the turn north. GFS was wide right.

Seen lots of “tenor” talk this year being used to project colder outcomes. Yes I think there is some credence to this year having a distinct trend of modeled ridging regimes getting muted, we’ve seen some gnarly looking torches (early January for example) get cut down into brief thaws and or mixed events. However, there is an additional “tenor” to this season that will likely lead to some SNE disappointment mid-to-late next week: overmodeled blocking and confluence in the medium range. We saw this on the 12/26-27 event, in which confluence remained strong but trended rapidly away from complete suppression in the final 36 hours until flakes started. We also saw blocking relax substantially from medium range projections for the mega-SWFE in January. In both of these cases, the majority of this forum’s SNE contingent benefitted. Even the colder storm during the muted warmup on 1/10-1/11 saw a bit of southerly pushing against confluence. The double barreled low pressure, which was destined to cut without high latitude help, pushed farther north in short range modeling. Despite salvaging the potential cutter 4-5 days out from verification, there was a slight boomeranging that occurred in the final 24-36 hours where confluence relaxed a bit. Thus substantial mixing was introduced into CNE and NNE regions that were previously supposed to remain frozen. It’s possible the midrange blocking relaxing slightly into the short range occurs again, the “tenor” of high amplitude blocks seem to be overmodeled this year. Of course, the implications are that warmth lifts farther north. NNE and CNE seem like a much better spot to be in right now for next week, despite some operational models (GFS) keeping them dry on the initial wave.

Thanks, that helps a lot, i will certainly look into doing those 80s storms if they meet the benchmark/criteria i set which is at least 12"+ over a portion of the region (at least a county or so wide) May 18th, 2002 is there, just not in the main archive since it wasn't a 3"+ storm for CT/SNE/Tri-State (just a part of the berkshires) but it's in the SNE snowfall maps for that season (kinda wild how the worst season ever had the latest snowfall ever haha. Kinda like 19-20 here with that May 9th storm.) https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-01-02 Oct 30th, 2020 is definitely there and in the main archive https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/oct-30-2020 There are many snowfall maps for each season in the SNE section that didn't make the main archive https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/snowfall-maps/sne-snowfall-maps

HRRR has a bit more. I agree with 1-3" for most

CANSIPS's limitations notwithstanding, ENSO forecasting skill at this lead time is low, especially when it comes to ENSO region details. If some of the ENSO guidance is correct, an El Niño could develop during the summer. That might inhibit tropical cyclone activity during the peak of hurricane season. Given ENSO forecasting challenges at the current lead time, a shortened/below normal Atlantic tropical cyclone season is a possible scenario but not yet assured. It does seem that this scenario is probably somewhat more likely than a highly active season. MJO forecasting skill is limited beyond 7-10 days due to its chaotic and convective nature. Speculation about predominant MJO phases next winter is nothing more than a wild guess. There is no skill whatsoever. Further, geothermal activity has no impact on ocean-atmosphere coupling and the synoptic patterns that result from such coupling. In sum, his idea of a cold Winter 2026-2027, which can't be made skillfully at the present lead time, is based on speculative propositions (the predominant MJO state more than three seasons in advance and geothermal, which has no linkage to weather/climate). This does not mean that there can't be a cold winter, but the nature of next winter cannot be forecast with any skill right now.

That timeframe has a signal from all the models. Brief spike in pna ridge ?

Euro and AI slightly bumped north 1-3 inches for the city

Euro skynet is a huge hit for Monday. Let’s hope it has a clue. It’s actually ok for the Friday system too. CT peeps get a bit on Wednesday.