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  2. GaWx
    This is great news for most of the south. I’m happy and would much rather have a forecast bust than the really bad things happen and verify the forecast. I have loved ones in ATL and had debated whether or not to alert them. I chose not to based partially on FFC not even saying “possibly severe” for ATL (this was issued at 2:27AM): REST OF TONIGHT SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. MONDAY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. So, FFC didn’t bust at all. So, great news in all aspects for ATL. No bust by FFC and only two straight line RS wins reports for a downed tree. Regarding the crying wolf concern, forecasting these events is very difficult and I saw very little on either board the day before saying it wouldn’t verify. Regarding those that won’t take the threat seriously next time (relatively few imho), that’s their problem.
  3. Jns2183
    Outside a tropical system the only times around here I've experienced true severe has been when we have a stong NW flow, dewpoint in upper 60's+. Temperature right around 80, and a clear almost bright skies under a solid cap till late afternoon when a huge jet stream slams into us causing upper air divergence and extremely rapid storm development 30-50 miles to my northwest. Outside of those very particular circumstances it's meh Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
  4. high risk
    They rarely trim things back unless there is a huge clear-cut signal to do so, with strong model consensus.
  5. Ellinwood
    Temps got knocked down several degrees IMBY (to lower 60s)... 1-hour temperature change plotted. Some time to recover this afternoon but we'll see.
  6. MAG5035
    I think the bulk of the overall severe threat is happening right now with that line coming into the Sus Valley from MD and also the other part of the line further up northeast of State College. This was the time of the day the high res models have been surging the CAPE up and matching with the shear. The line with the frontal passage (now east of Pittsburgh) might not have much CAPE to work with.
  7. Ginx snewx
    18 Just south by 3 miles Ekonk Hill had 24 with 8 ft drifts
  8. canderson
    Good thunder though. The dynamics here aren’t great for lighting.
  9. Kmlwx
    Yeah that looks decent - I must ahve been looking at the more recent runs.
  10. Kmlwx
    Yeah could definitely see that. I think the big questions are how much recovery happens and how intense that frontal line gets. I could see it being anything from robust/gusty showers to a major damaging wind event. For now I'm holding back on sounding any alarms obviously. We will see what SPC thinks in the update coming soon. If they trim back probabilities for areas that have seen the line - we'll know their thinking we are "done"
  11. GBOVolz
    .
  12. Jns2183
    We are getting barely any lightning with these. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
  13. Ji
    the HRRR i think nailed the late morning activity. This is from the 12z run
  14. GBOVolz
    https://x.com/cartervail2/status/2033574175705624777?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .
  15. Interstate
    I am happy to be stuck between lines
  16. Mount Joy Snowman
    Again, I don't get this at all. Also, aren't these buildings (i.e. schools, government buildings, etc.) supposed to be the safest places to be during events like this?? Kids are going to be exiting busses in the middle of this potentially. They could have just let the day play out and it's likely there will be a nice little gap in the action later this afternoon.
  17. TSSN+
    Imo like I said I think that line was pretty much it till little frontal line later.
  18. mappy
    Velocity showing 70+ winds on the storms headed my way
  19. canderson
    You can see the dynamics change right at the PA/MD border. Oddly we see more straighter wind than them but they have the spinning much more.
  20. NJwx85
    Not sure where exactly you're located, but Toms River is definitely on the Eastern edge of the threat area, hence the tornado watch.
  21. Kmlwx
    None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on.
  22. Pityflakes
    whatever spinny energy we had from that mesoscale LP feature is now quickly shifting north to/above the Mason-Dixon line. Guess now we wait to see if we clear out or if these little line features hang on in the DC metro. Have all afternoon now though to reload.
  23. AmericanWxFreak
    This might have been the most exciting batch of the day...
  24. GBOVolz
    Yes brother… praying for you all. .
  25. canderson
    How delayed is that line now? Seems less likely to be a full QLCS later this evening.
  26. dailylurker
    Oh boy. I'm seeing sun and the storms in VA should stay west.
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