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Oh ok SPC, I see... Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late tonight. ...OH valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... An unseasonably strong upper trough is forecast to move from southern ON into the northeast US through early Sunday. As the trough intensifies, a 60+ kt mid-level jet will overspread portions of eastern Canada and the Northeast, aiding in deepening a surface low across the eastern St Lawrence Valley. Strong surface mass response will lift a warm front northward across eastern NY and southern New England. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass will be in place ahead of a cold front over the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A rather broad area, is expected to be conducive for numerous strong to severe storms with the potential for widespread damaging winds over the Northeastern US today and tonight. One or more clusters of showers/thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period from central PA and southern NY into eastern ON as isentropic ascent increases along the advancing warm front. The impact of this overnight/early morning convection is somewhat uncertain, but most guidance shows substantial air mass recovery in its wake by midday with dewpoints in the mid 70s across much of the Mid Atlantic. Given the degree of moisture and minimal inhibition present, even modest diurnal heating should support rapid destabilization with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg common by early afternoon. Several different forcing regimes are expected to be active which makes the convective evolution highly uncertain. The early morning storms near the advancing warm front in PA could re-intensify as the air mass to their south and east gradually destabilizes. This would favor an increasing risk for damaging gusts. 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear could also support some supercell structures. A couple of tornadoes (some possibly strong) may occur, given favorable backed low-level flow and ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 near the front from southeastern PA, into NJ and southern NY. Additional storms are likely to develop along a pre-frontal confluence axis/lee trough east of the higher terrain from southern PA into eastern MD and northern VA to northern NC. Large buoyancy and deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt would favor a mixed mode of line segments and supercells. These storms should move eastward toward DelMarVa and the I-95 Corridor by early afternoon. RAP/HRRR soundings show 40-50 kt of flow aloft as the upper trough and jet streak move overhead. Regardless of storm mode, the high PWAT content (2-2.5 inches) should foster strong downdrafts and momentum transfer to the surface. Widespread damaging gusts are likely from northeast VA, eastern MD, into southeast PA and NJ. Higher wind probabilities (60%) may be needed if confidence in a more linear/cluster storm mode develops. To the west, ahead of the cold front, a broken band of cells and clusters is likely from NY/VT to the Lower Great Lakes. The strongest vertical shear should reside across upstate NY into northwest PA and northeast OH, where a few supercells are possible. While farther west, strongly veered surface flow should result in more linear storm modes. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany these storms, along with some potential for isolated hail. 70s F surface dewpoints and enhanced low-level SRH could also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially closer to the surface low and near the effective warm frontal zone where low-level shear is more favorable.

Fortunately, a flush hit this morning. 1.46" which way more than doubled what's been delivered so far this month so was sorely needed. Let's see how well we recover today.

SPC going balls to the wall on this threat. Enhanced risk 45% wind threat, mentioned an upgrade to 60% might be issued 5% hatched area for naders. 5% Hail

Even Channel 6 Philadelphia sees the Tamaqua Split...

Hopefully there will be a big one in October!

I just got woken up by a loud lightning strike. I love that. It looks like another round headed my way. AA County looks like the winner this morning. Headed your way, CAPE.

We’ve been wet for sure…your area SW of here even a bit more…but all of us WOR have gotten our share. We’ll see what later today brings.

Orioles only 2gb of the wild card?

1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS. 2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27 1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30 0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30 1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33 0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37 1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46 0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56 1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59 0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53 1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44 0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41 1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39 0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35

lol - the Nats are beating the A's 23-2 in the 9th.

...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

The timing on tonight's HRRR and NAM3km is around 2 to 4 in the afternoon, and they really hammer us with a big line of strong storms. I'm looking forward to big storms with heavy rain, but hopefully it won't be so severe that there's a lot of damage. Obviously the potential for that is there though.

Interesting how dry it is off the SE coast and Gulf. Tropics look shutdown for the time being.

Just saw my first back-to-school commercial from Kohl’s. Better get your Halloween candy before the shelves are empty.

These are your y/y changes in 27.0C DJFs in Nino 3.4 winters. I've also found this to be essentially four real patterns: Cold South/Warm North, Cold SW/NE, Cool East/Warm West, Cold East/Mild West. El Nino Y/Y Change Nino 3.4 1951 +1.3 1953 +0.4 1957 +2.0 1958 -1.2 1963 +1.5 1965 +2.0 1968 +1.7 1969 -0.6 1972 +2.5 1976 +2.3 1977 +0.0 1982 +2.2 1986 +1.7 1987 -0.4 1991 +1.3 1994 +0.9 1997 +2.7 2002 +1.0 2004 +0.2 2006 +1.6 2009 +2.3 2014 +1.0 2015 +1.9 2018 +1.7 2019: -0.3 2023 +2.4 2026 +3.1? Look at the signals - +2.0C gain or more: 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1997, 2009, 2023 +1.0C to +1.99C gain: 1951, 1963, 1968, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2006, 2014, 2015, 2018 +0.0C to +0.99C gain: 1953, 1977, 1994, 2002, 2004, 2014 <0.0C gain: 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987, 2019 Big Gain El Ninos (2.0C or greater warmer y/y in Dec-Feb). Coldest Southeast US. Average Gain El Ninos (1-2C warmer y/y Dec-Feb). Coldest SW & NE US. Small Gain El Ninos (0-1C warmer y/y Dec-Feb). +PDO driven / cold East & warm West. Small Loss El Ninos (0-1C colder y/y Dec-Feb than prior El Nino, but still El Nino). All pretty severe Eastern winters, except 2019-20.

NGL for a minute I thought it was your backyard in Stephens City before looking closer.

same - just walked to meet a few friends for a drink, i didn't really smell anything. still VERY hazy though.

My local indicators based on Summer don't support full-on idealized El Nino conditions locally. I have two approaches for that: Low Solar + ENSO Prior + ENSO Current. So ideal is a) solar minimum plus b) big La Nina in prior winter c) big El Nino in current winter. Factors B/C are relational - cold winters here are directly correlated to the biggest warm-ups y/y in Nino 3.4. 2023-2024 was a notable failure - although that's likely due to both high solar and the strong -PDO offsetting a strong y/y warm up to some extent (Nino 3.4 warmed +2.4C from 2022-23 to 2023-24 in Nino 3.4, v. +1.7C from 2017-18 to 2018-19, but 2018-19 had low solar, and a neutral PDO. So with solar/PDO more favorable 2018-19 was much colder than 2023-24 even though 2023-24 was stronger.) 2018-19 netted out to about 2.2F colder than the 1991-2020 average high, while 2023-24 was 1.1 warmer than that 1991-2020 average high. For 2026-27, you have potentially: +3.5C in Nino 3.4 (biggest gain on record, call it -0.4C to +3.1C in DJF y/y) High Solar (75-100 sunspots for July 2026-June 2027) So I'd expect temps colder than 2023-24 locally as both the SST gain and solar conditions are better, especially with the -PDO looking weaker. The biggest misses on this image are also tied to volcano influenced El Ninos (1963-64 Agung is the big cold miss, 1994-95 is the big warm miss (54F) and then 2023-24 (Tonga?). Low solar is more directly correlated to lower lows and less rain/snow here, but it tends to indirectly make highs colder too (El Ninos starting 1963, 1965, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2018 are all low solar and very cold here). My other indicator is Summer conditions. Snowy winters tend to follow Summers that are cold in June-Sept, El Nino, with a wet Monsoon, and three years or more since above average snow. Right now, we're on track for: Hot June (-) / Hot July (-) / Mild/Hot Aug (= or -) /Mild/Hot Sep (= or -) Dry Monsoon (-) /El Nino (+) / ENSO + Monsoon (=) / Duration since big Winter (+) The monsoon could still flip. But I doubt we get a cold Aug AND Sept. Best case: There was a signal in the data locally, hottest Marches on record tend to precede cold August unusually often. Same for extreme -WPO/+NAO Marches. That would need to coincide with a wet month. So - Good (El Nino, Wet Monsoon, ENSO + Monsoon, Aug Cold, Duration since big winter) Neutral (Hot Sept) Bad (Hot Jun, Hot July) Nets Out to ~10 inches of snow based on my historical testing, and that'd be accurate within 4 inches of snow in 70%+ of all cases. I need to dig out some of my older research. I have it on a blue thumb drive somewhere.

Model is trash

Oh crazy, if got smoky but they predicted it.

Massive win.

You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.