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Beware the East tics towards go time. This looks like it might be a solid event for Eastern peeps though.

Snip of WX;s300AFD: Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, north central and northeast Maryland, and the Catoctin Mountains for Sunday into Monday. Gale Watch has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and the lower tidal Potomac River. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area Sunday into Monday. No notable changes were observed with the 12Z guidance with respect to the low pressure fcst to develop off the NC coast Sunday with the GFS remaining on its world and the Canadian and ECMWF models showing similar scenarios. While the Canadian and ECMWF models trended a little closer to the coast with the position of the low center, they still remain a good distance from Washington DC, roughly 300 nm, so that the sweet spot of this storm remains far east from our area. Precip is expected to develop across the area Sunday morning on the north side of developing sfc low pressure to the southeast. It should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as low- levels will be too warm. In addition, the precip intensity initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas or at high elevations. Most of the day Sunday should be like that with snow falling at temperatures around 34 at light intensity. Sunday night, upper level trough will be digging across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states and provide strong lift to generate widespread light to moderate snow. The best low-level and upper level forcing will be focused across the area of northern central and northeast MD along an inverted-trof axis. This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with respect to QPF according to the latest 12Z EPS ensembles with QPF amounts generally around half inch liquid equivalent. While snow ratios will likely lower than normal, potential banding may offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures. The snow will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW winds will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere, light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope flow will continue to generate snow snowers.

Everything is kinda messy. Plus if that had turned negative tilt quicker it'll be slightly more west and wetter.

Storm didnt happen yet. If it fails east we bow to the King euro.

Same lol hoping for 12-18” area wide in Suffolk with isolated 24-30”

Here it comes

The onset rates were tremendous! The winds will high-end, plus the general public was out in mass, and there was a sense by the public that it was being over-blown. The onset of heavy heavy snow was like a curtain, making travel almost impossible shortly after onset! There is a couple of great books out there that document the event, plus the Kocin book! WBZ produced a great documentary about it; probably still out there some where.

Still room for improvement on the H5... if it can go negative about 6 hours sooner

You saw what happened in 2007 with 6-8” in the Boston area. Gridlock. Plows couldn’t get through. Everything was jammed. Now dump another 24”-36” on top of that. Civilization ground to a halt.

Back in the day, we had back to back 40 inch winters. God the 00s were amazing.

Really liking this one. Kudos to the GFS for the sniff out.

Mm... that made more sense as of the 7am ... I'm willing to call that a little of a conservative bias at this point, if that is still the way they perceive this situation. There's still time, anyway, so it's not a knock if they were to wait to pull headline triggers. But that GFS statement isn't entirely true as of the scalar moment. There's other guidance that bring goods and wind to an ~ PSM-HFD line, enough so, to justify a Watch spanning the region-->SE. The super ensemble mean that Megamike supplied few ago isn't just the GFS. It means a lot of players are in on this thing.

GSP in their afternoon disco mentioned a solid Winter Weather Advisory event for lower mountain elevations and Winter Storm Warning possible above 3500 ft.

Well isnt that a lovely little panel

The precip shield on the NAM at 51 is quite impressive. Snow back to Pittsburgh and State College. Not really close to the Euro in terms of precip shield west of Philly.

Dear @AlexD1990, I'm writing to inform you that you're getting pummeled.

EDIT- that is no where near the record of 74.3 from 2018.

Mod to heavies in region at 46

If, for example, NYC gets to 30" and its winter mean temperature is 32° or below, it was a great winter in objective terms. The only such winters that met such criteria since 1960 are 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

Temp has leveled off at 63. Picked up .06" with the front. Sun is back out.

Classic NAM’ing incoming.

It’s the weirdest start I can remember to a storm. We get these burse of moderate heavy snow that lasts between 30 seconds and two minutes and then it stops and then another two minutes later we get another burst that’s happened like six or seven times in the last half an hour

WB 3K NAM noon Sunday.

Snow map whenever you can please.