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The moisture is welcome in whatever form it falls.

too soon

The mean convection will sit where it’s 30C, however the MJO will wobble it around a little. You can see here with the black outline how it can destructively and constructively interfere. MC is pretty much shut down here even with the MJO near it, but once it moves east of the MC, it can fire up areas slightly west or east of the 30C standing wave, or in the case of the 11/4 to 11/10 frame, sit directly on top of it and further enhance the 30C warm pool convection.

Pretty good call. Looking likely that snow will mix in or change over briefly late overnight into early morning. Could possibly see a trace...?

100% toss…for now. GDM is pretty bullish on a storm developing off the coast, it just doesn’t bring it anywhere close to us.

Tomorrow has got to be the last muggy day of the season right? I suspect dew point records to be smashed tomorrow.

0.18" storm total rain, anything more would be good in any form.

I didn't shift anything. Nor have I been in your debate, guy - merely made the observation that people have different ideas on the nature of what a existential threat is - time and imminence being a part of that. By the way, you are factually wrong much of the time. "- it has very much *not* been due to global warming; " garbage semantics. Climate-related die-offs are happening now. If you want to dodge acknowledgement by saying they’re not all caused by climate change alone that's elementary anyway, but doesn't work to abase the former. I also said the toxicity ( meaning pollution) plays a roll. Either way, this can and should all be under anthropomorphic activity. That's not 'goal posts', that's intelligence. It is divisive to attempt to do otherwise, that or ignorance, anyway, because the use of fossil fuels for combustion creates toxicity, in conjunction green-housing... But as far as temperature specifically, a clear current example is coral reefs: NOAA reports that the fourth global coral bleaching event affected about 84.4% of the world’s coral reef area with bleaching-level heat stress between January 2023 and September 2025. Plus, I spoke of diasporas in that, too - which is species migrations... which is evidentiary supporting the same notion. There's plenty of others, and I'm not going to do the petty low-brow game of citing them for you - go do the research. More broadly, warming and extreme weather are already affecting wildlife and this is just flat empirical fact. Habitat loss, disease, and other pressures are scienced and heavily papered.

To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.

...there's also a moral consideration... It's one thing to be a hunter, with a gun or arrow ... traipsing through the bush stalking stock for the winter. Not to sound too 'out there' but to for brevity, "Gaia" set that table of predator-prey relationship since the beginnings of life some billions of years ago. Obliviously swiping ecologies clean from a smoke stack 10,000 miles away ... I'll tell ya, at a minimum that's an interesting philosophy for the process of global Darwinism. you know? strong survive and so forth. It just seems, however, that's an overstep on "evolution's intent" - poetically... who deserves reprisal? How's that for a creepy prelude. haha Anyway, an "existential crisis" should include all species of the planetary system, not just human kind. Particularly considering ... the holistic system ..."Gaia" or whatever you wanna call it, has to be healthy if and when our technology can't keep up if/when our own adaptation rate is being tested. The world is experiencing a mass die off, and it is inextricably connected to CC. Anthropomorphic culpability in that die-off is, in a clinical sense, an incredible achievement by the machinery of Darwinian heh... It smacks of that stuff about how technological feedback creates a paradox, 'Evolution evolves the means to de-evolve the progenitor to the previous state'. Basically, tech makes survival easy; "easy" stops Darwinism; traits dissolve away because nature never holds onto attributes - entropy ensures decay. That's at least one plausible explanation for Fermi's Paradox right there. I'm sure there's more direct means ...like, species A can't survive their technological infancy before blowing themselves to kingdom come ... If we survive the dad's gun scenario, we have this slow cook Law of Lessening Returns. CC and the perils in store ... it reminds me of that "Star Trek: Next Generation" episode, "The Ensigns of Command". In that episode, a kind of xenophobic alien antagonist species known as "Sheliak" claim rights to a planetary system where several generations of colonist had adapted and were surviving - naturally ... not wanting to yield to the Sheliak's demand. Meanwhile, the Sheliak make it clear they would be willing to exterminate the "infestation", apparently having no compunctions in doing so... The colonist have technology, but they are vastly inferior, as well, had been completely closed off from the Federation for over a hundred years, and therefore, had sort of devolved to this incredulous state ... Implicit in the plot is that they can't see the Sheliak threat so they don't believe it to be what it is purported to be in lieu of the majesty they can see, which is their proud achievement as a surviving colony. The episode is a Sci Fi story exploring sociological aspects - really quite fascinating. "Data" ( Brent Spiner), essentially a cyborg life form, was the only crew member that could withstand the "hyperonic" ( whatever that is/means) radiation the colonists themselves learned to adapt to, so he, being the less human of lot is naturally charged with the responsibility of exposing and convincing these people, first hand, of the existential threat the Sheliak impose... Things aren't going so well. He is even violently opposed to for his typical ingratiating uber polite methodical approach and efforts... But the true hero is a sympathizer and realist member of the colony that restores him from a 'shut off' state, just in time! He rises to demo the Sheliak's ability, first hand, by destroying the aqueduct that feeds the colony by use of his modified phaser. Heh, everything in Start Trek is always solved by phasers or triquarters. Stunned by the power of what the phaser did, Data seizes the moment and tells them that the Sheliak will obliterate them from space, 'Without you ever having seen the faces of your annihilators'. In other words, tell a human they are in danger, they'll look around and float trial balloons. If they see it happening, they get out of the way. At last, the colonists acquiesce. I find all that strikingly metaphoric where, just because humanity cannot real see, feel or sense the danger of CC directly, they are more than willing to deny the peril of it as being real.

Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.

39 degrees and rain. Reminds me of many a Maryland winter when it's puking snow 10 miles to my west.

Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model.

Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model.

100% correct. The hockey stick chart and average lifespan chart, if laid on top of one another, nearly match, but yeah, we are going to die off because of C02 and all that came from the industrial revolution is going to kill us all.

I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event.

Going to put this out there. I've always been a bit of a weather nerd (thus generally enjoying this site) - many in my family are (though just casual). I've generally had a big respect for the meteorology profession, and my son is in fact now starting college in meteorology. But I have to say - some of this is starting to make me lose a lot of respect for the profession; the disregard for solid scientific principles in favor of bending to the winds of societal fearmongering. I'm sure it's not true of a lot of people in the profession; hopefully not most. It's just dismaying to see how prevalent it is. </soapbox>

Total agreement.

You keep shifting around the goalposts, even in your own posts. What kind of "death" are you talking about here? Because each type is hugely different. When you're talking about "world destiny" (your original) words, are you talking about: Death of humanity? Death of a bunch of non-human species? Death of "the world" - encompassing all of the above (a literal wasteland)? Each of these is *massively* different in their proposed causes, timeframes, scales, etc. Your term "world destiny" certainly sounds like the first or the latter, not just the death of a few species. While there are certainly a lot of species dying off in recent years - it has very much *not* been due to global warming; it's generally been due to habitat removal; in particular things like overfishing and overhunting (generally under control now), and forest clearing due to harvesting, farming, and development (still ongoing; though improving somewhat). On the latter - it's worth noting the massive acreage of forests that will be need to be cleared (or not allowed to regrow) to meet solar farm proposals; e.g. the 277,000-acre proposal in VA. If you're talking death of humanity - I refer to my previous chart, among other hopefully obvious things. The use of fossil fuels very much *lessens* the level of human deaths, in many, many ways. If things like king tides in Miami are such a big danger - wouldn't one expect the number of annual deaths from natural disasters to be steadily rising - not falling? Why aren't we seeing news reports of all these deaths being caused by these king tides? That seems... mysterious.

With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS. So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s.

High around 50 with rain today. Bring it, we need it.