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Your lawn will like it!

SPC storm reports says 4.50" near Hamilton! I wonder how many injuries there are per year from 2.75" plus hail. I know there are essentially no fatalities from hail.

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. There remains a risk that the front could stall for a time. Friday could see temperatures return to the 70° or above should the front clear the region. It will turn warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks. The SOI was -9.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.922 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

WB 18Z GFS went berserk with rain....maybe early but hopefully a sign of things to come with the El Niño.

18z euro is over 2” here.

App has about a half inch in total .

Frost tonight and 90 by Sunday. The bimodal distribution continues

Whatever your app has

What's your forecast?

I’m assuming you’re as uninformed as most of your tweet and wx app posts and missed the Euro part

Looking to get cold up your way tonight and tomorrow night. Stick with the couch.

Killer sunset out there

Accordion man won’t like that map

Yeah, Eastern Mass barely gets over 4"

Incorrect . It’s mainly over Friday in SNE other than a shower

Multiple pics of a big waterspout between Morehead city and harkers island

Not a big fan of spring but damn if it can't be pretty. Something about the new leaves and lighting.

Yeah its thu night-Friday. Euro has 2-5"

Slight chance of frost

Storms missed me by about 5 miles. Only got .03" today. Big cool down though. Went from 82 to 66 in a matter of a few hours.

Euro only has .25-.30 river East for Thursday . Congrats west of River . Stein east

Wheel of rhea Thursday and Friday eh?

The whole 2m philosophy needs a make-over. It's abysmal. That over mixing thing is a separate error to the under-sold high temps that happen in the actual heat wave. It's like errors in both directions are true. weird. It seems... beyond the late short range the model mixing is over proficient... but as it comes into shorter vision, the model corrects but then it just assigns the sfc sigma as 1000 mb level and calls that the 2m. There's a new error anyway, world over, having to do with this new phenomenon surrounding 'synergistic heat waves' - they exceed everything. We've talked about this in the past... There's been several between Iberian Penn as far N as London. Australia. Siberia... the steppe country near the Urals over the hills into Moscow. The Pacific NW... "sort of" 2012 in the lower OV - it tried to get in here but was cut off by a corrective derecho that pretty much undermind the ridge for everyone. These are a different thing altogether where nothing gets them right because they are literally synergistically created - like emergent properties where the temp just runs away beyond all convection means of forecasting, machine to man. I don't think there was very many this last year but it was a reasonably well-coupled cool ENSO mode so that maybe has some capping aspect. But oh gee, guess what ...we're heading into super dong.

Surprised how widespread the frost was this morning. Drought concerns starting to creep into this area if we don’t get some rain soon.

If it is not 1/4SM VV001 +SNFZFG, Scott be like "MEH!"