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58 / 34 great stretch continues. Upper 50s - low 60s for most today and a great day for the kids. A touch warmer tomorrow and 4:50 PM sunset for the standard time non and enthusiasts. Back to the 70s in the warm spots Mon - Fri but Thu / Fri / Sat may see the first rain in almost 20 days that point with large trough west cut off of our area. Overall near - above normal beyond there but the dry / nice streak looks to reverse.

1. Even with this rapid recovery, which is not at all uncommon for an early SSW as climo rises thru Dec, Nov as a whole would still ~tie for the lowest avg 10 hPa/60N wind (back to 1948). 2. I’ve got RONI peaking ~+3.0C now.

Maybe we'll roast through about Dec 20th, and then cool down enough for a sub-wide covering just in time for Christmas.

Can we make it three years in a row in coastal Carolina? First photo is Myrtle Beach SC second is a few miles away in Calbash NC right over the SC line in February, was back in East Hartland right after that for the blizzard. That second photo was a couple days after the storm where Ocean effect dumped 15 inches, needless to say plowing snow doesn’t happen there. The one of Myrtle was about six inches and that was all snow no mix. The year before we had almost 6 inches in Myrtle Beach.

I miss last winter

Wonder if Margarvage will post this?

GFS could be warmer but I’ll live .

In 2023-24 the Gaylord area in NW lower MI saw like 80" of snow and considered it a non winter. (They had record snow last winter). The mere idea of no snow in the lakes is insane.

WHO thinks this is going to be a good winter? @40/70 Benchmark, myself and others have marveled at this statement which gets thrown around here somewhat frequently and yet no one can point out a SINGLE person who says this will be a "good winter". I guess saying that it will snow in places that have never seen a winter without multiple snowfalls means a "good winter". The mere idea of no snow in the Great Lakes region with shorts from Christmas to Valentines day is absolutely ridiculous. Guarantee ill be wearing sweaters and worst case scenario enjoying a much lower heating bill than usual. Its amazing how some people lose their grasp on reality of how the weather works.

I'd prefer to have a la nina next winter--and I really dislike ninas because I live in the Mid-atlantic meaning I'm too far north for sliders AND too far west for Miller Bs. BUT...long game...if we can get la nina next year, it can do the stupid double dip thing in 28-29, then it can peter out and we can hope for a nino with a solar minimum! Who says no?

I looked at the ensembles. While it may get more wet, it’s AN for sure. I expect some alternate periods of warm and cold while averaging AN.

Not to nitpick but the ice storm was Jan 1998. But yes. Nov-Jan 1997-98 was fine here for a strong Nino. Plenty of snowfalls. February was the disaster no-show. March saw a winter comeback of sorts but most of it stayed west of me.

Does this map put both Dryslot and Tamarack in Severe drought ?

The weenie land AI euro eps was posted. Sometimes these models dont latch on to the PV warming. If anything colder air would return for a brief at the end of November. AO and NAO diving with the PNA rising. It also should get stormy soon.

That’s how it goes.

Yeah driving around yesterday colors were really popping especially in the late afternoon sun

I actually wouldn't mind something like 1877-78 here at all. I mean, id NEVER wish for it outright, but saddled with a super nino, its not a bad outcome in the Great Lakes region (further northwest into MN and Southern Canada a different story). With records somewhat limited, im going strictly off Detroit data, but a reasonable amount of extrapolation for nearby areas can be done. After a bit of snow and cold around Thanksgiving, December torched, then much colder and snowier weather hit in January and February, including a huge snowstorm. It was still a bit milder than average, but in prime climo months it wasnt prohibitive at all in getting solid winter weather here. The torch returned in March and April. It certainly made for a much shorter winter than we are used to, but if im forced to have a limited winter, why not get the best weather in the prime time instead of november, march and april. Also, a scenario like that isnt at all unrealistic in recent times, as Jan/Feb, especially Jan, have seen almost no warming at all, unlike Dec and Mar.

Happy Halloweenie, All. PIT2 sitting in the D3 shading. It's a lot better now than it was in August, that's for damn sure.

One semi cold airmass and they’ll start giving each other attaboys for their PV calls.

Interesting that Chicago never had measurable snow on Halloween til 2014 then has had it 3 times since. Detroit has only had it twice (1993- 0.1", 2023- 0.2"). Halloween 1950 was a scorcher (79° at Detroit but 81° on Nov 1st).

As long as we can keep pulling 60s-70 let’s keep the sun. But by late Novie and Dec we need to fix this up here.