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Was clicking around on some soundings and some models seem to have a sneaky good alignment of lift and the DGZ for a band tomorrow somewhere between DC and Baltimore. We got a saturated upper atmosphere so once the surface moistens I think it would actually be a very pretty winter afternoon for someone.

GFS-has bull's-eye for Central Virginia for run after run after run for tomorrow for a week pretty much. We get to less than 24 hours it's north and it doesn't even snow here at all. Conclusion most weather models are fine to give an idea about a storm but none of them are reliable outside of 24 to 36 hours.

yeah, clearly a rain sounding.

0z GFS is bringing a little more juice with wave 2, bringing it in earlier with a little more snow this run for the LSV .

i saw some national maps - and that seems about right for most of the Mid Atlantic.

There was a 4-6” system around 3/24. I remember I bought a tower with my first pentium chip around then and I accidentally dropped the tower into the wet snow but it survived. Hard to believe it’s been 29 years.

Eh, toggling the GFS I guess I can see 3hrs slower. I guess it couldn’t hurt to be closer to darkness

By next Friday, the cold returns. It is showing across all ensemble guidance that the trough is back in the east by mid month. We are far from done with Winter.

The AI GFS has gotten a little wetter and north for both part 1 and 2 for quite a few consecutive runs. Op seems to move right in line with it.

I see norther and wetter - idk if I see slower, but I’m not paying a crazy amount of attention to timing. Still feel like this band rolls in between 1-3pm. Def want Pt. 2 to be more amped. Very skeptical of the GFS solution but that’s what gets someone from a lucky 1-2” to have someone push 3”.

Yup Philly is absolutely toast for this one.

This really won't happen. The sun angle is too high and temps are a bit too warm for snow. If anything happens, it will probably be rain.

Just wait until July. In April/May People notice it's warm out for the first time in awhile and think "lets go outside", then a good 50% of them get bored and go back to watching tv after about a few weeks. I see it every year.

@NorthArlington101 I don’t think it’s any coincidence the models have all slowed this down just a handful of hours each suite, which has also allowed it to push more north each time. Slower has equaled north and a bit more “amped” if we want to call it that. Definitely lets the boundary recede a bit more and also helps set the track for the part 2

Another 20-30 miles north with the juice on basically every 0z model

It's a lock

You sat there with a drunk in your hand?

Yes, March 1997 was cold, windy, w/ a couple of days of decent snow squalls. Lots of low-topped CBs I recall in the distance!

You forgot the the 2nd half of March 1997 was pretty good. I remember a couple of systems giving snow. I remember running on Beacon Street up in Brookline over icy and snowy streets. About a week before April Fools we had a moderate event. Then just when we thought it was over April Fools delivered an all timer.

Feb totals, 2.94" precip, 2.8" snowfall . Highest temp 59, lowest 8

Just caught the SpaceX launch at the Christmas tree farm up the street. Pretty chilly already. Actually, 18°.

+.6" (3/1) 58.8" ots Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Roads were heavily brined out here in WV today -- I'm confident it's a sign that something may or may not happen.

Glue factory…Elmers is calling.

RGEM looks like a general ~1" of snow before light icing