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Looks like the eye will be large than before if this picture is any indication.

I must say, despite the unfortunate outcome for Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and all others in Melissa's path, it has been a pleasure to advance my knowledge of cyclones with you all over the past week tracking this hurricane. What a wild ride it's been!

952 on first pass, so pretty close to what NHC said at 5pm EDT advisory. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2513A-MELISSA.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2513A-MELISSA.png

I mean it spent over 5 hours on mountainous land I’m not sure why anyone would expect it to weaken less than it did. That being said the structure overall remained intact. Shear is starting to increase, evident by restricted outflow to SW, but it’s moving NE over a bathtub. This is going to restrengthen significantly. The only thing that weakened it in the first place was land.

Probably widespread power outages Friday - power up those portable batteries.

Yeah definitely better looking now.

2.62" for last rain event here in PG. Damn if it ain't been a bit raw feeling, too.

Ya she's looking better and better again

The satellite improvement happened FAST

Well, it definitely should have weakened it crossed right over the mountains and has now reemerged on the other side. I have been to that part of Jamaica I would liken the mountains there like the Appalachians in central Pennsylvania. I am stating the obvious, I am sure. This is a tragic event for the Southwestern and western parts of Jamica especially.

Warming near center. Eye about to reappear

I have a non-chaser friend in Montego Bay. Right near the water. They are safe, but the first floor of their place was wrecked by the wind.

We should start a poll as to when the first snow thread will be posted. Think last year we made it to like January lol.

Probably only borderline a major hurricane at this point, but a much wider area of hurricane force winds

Towers starting to pop and wrap around the center. Wouldn’t be shocked to see an eye pop again even with the major disruption.

A strong NAO blocking regime is in place and will persist into early November. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. Tomorrow will be another cool day. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 50s across much of the region. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through at least the middle of the week before it turns a bit milder. Rain will likely arrive Wednesday night or Thursday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely late Wednesday night through Friday. There remains uncertainty about the area of heaviest rainfall. The storm will be followed by a continuation of cool weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +23.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.455 today. The NAO was -1.744. That is the lowest NAO figure since November 22, 2024 when the NAO was -1.823. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The collapse of FL winds and the central pressure rising 60mb says it all. At least for now. The 5pm discussion mentions that the intensity estimate was “highly uncertain”. I doubt the winds are that high looking at that first round of data but recon is finding it just as it exits Jamaica. IR is already improving so we’ll see what it can do the next ~8 hours. The core looks intact enough for a reorganization & intensification phase.

Yea would seem unlikely at ground level

120-125 but I think it ramps back up to 140-150 pretty quick

We probably will find out soon, with the airplanes in there now. What do you think the winds are at?

It’s blowing back up nicely

Check out the 18z GFS at 156z.

Highly doubt winds are close to that.

5pm EDT advisory has it as a very dangerous cat 4 storm. 5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 Location: 18.5°N 77.7°W Moving: NNE at 8 mph Min pressure: 921 mb Max sustained: 145 mph