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It looks like the warm pool SW of the Aleutians may be on the move very similarly to how last year evolved. This should continue to push further east with time allowing the index for PDO to start to make a run to neutral status. If we do indeed start to push these waters further east toward the Gulf of Alaska it should allow for a weaker overall trough going into Canada then we have seen. The waters west of Japan into the Koreas and China is not dwindling any time soon but if the area further east does try to continue to cool it could play for a pretty impressive snow event or two as a giant lake effect event like they experienced a few years ago. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Also the MJO is finally on the move and actually becoming a wave versus the null action over the last 2 months. The enhanced trades are some of the furthest west we have seen in a long time this could very well continue to cool the waters at least around the eastern portion of the maritime continent as we go into late fall early winter. I would not be surprised to see one last system in the Caribbean for the month of October to close out the season as the MJO moves through 1-2-3.

This video embraces the two things I miss dearly right now.Good winners and old times. The suspense is unbearable, but don't worry fellas Sally pulls through.

Would be so crazy. Do think late October looks rather stormy regardless

This shit has to end eventually. But it feels like we’ve been saying that for a long time now.

Yeah all a what if game. I’m sure there would have been a mix to start for awhile as that high was just a bit east.

Had snow OTG in 2011 but it was in low 40’s and melting . Have never had it snow on that day . For whatever reason that first 8-9 day period of Nov in very history almost always is mild . So it’s a very low chance. But if I look at progs this year.. can see how it’s not a zero chance . Normally it is

A whopping 0.28” for this non-event IMColumbiaBY.

novie snows used to be a thing

You'll see it.

2nd

I saw snow on my b-day in 2009, random 10-15/16 snow. Only time I can recall

what day

Terrible start, legendary finish.

I think this year for the first time in 25+ years offers at least a low chance of snow on or near my bday . The pattern of aligned right shows the opportunity.It’s been an elusive chase for 52 years. Time is running out..

DT called this ^

Luckily this is hour a million so it probably won't happen

Sandy 2.0

Yeah I've been looking, it's still a very coarse signal out of the Carib. I don't care if it impacts here, but let's see some impacts!

That map isnt even close over this way. Might have been an inch or so. Consider the source.

Far out but I think either way there's going to be a big end of the month storm.. lots of fun on the ensembles for that time period.

that's my darling setup! Just a bit weak with 942mb and too far south. Looks late-season 1938ish though!

Yes!

5 days later, has that misery look outside of a VERY cold anedecent airmass

6.60"..just persistent steady rain