All Activity

87 amd despite the milky haze a decent amount of sun today

12z guidance (and going back to overnight runs) mostly want to washout the SE coast tropical low or pull it northeast out to sea. Either option looks good to me!

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.

details TBD but looks like a prolonged above average dewy stretch summer as it should be

Nature is cruel it's dry and virtually nothing in the 10 day

The BoM released 8/2/25 has -0.2 for ASO and then rises to near 0.0 for the winter: Colder boat needed here too probably.

Would be history if it happens

Sea breeze boundary w LI. Showers now at 250 pm

There was an interesting article re: the subterranean blob of molten mantle moving south west under New England, aged 80 million years from when Greenland broke off. Maybe that is impacting the old fault lines?

100% Grade-A Craftsman tool-chest.

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me.

No storm has ever survived that far north of the Hawaiian islands.

Gonna need a colder boat-

Days and days of 90+ on the euro.

SOI has been solidly negative for the first time in a while, during the last 3 days. This has occurred with the ENSO subsurface cold pool no longer deepening.. the anomalies have moderated from -5c max to -3c max. 5 Aug 2025 1012.75 1014.10 -18.03 4.89 2.94 4 Aug 2025 1012.63 1014.25 -19.66 4.67 3.20 3 Aug 2025 1013.49 1015.10 -19.60 4.77 3.40

You can also choose to ignore certain posters in your profile settings. It has proven helpful on this site more than once.

I post model runs.

Thanks, Mitch. This is slightly cooler than the July run, which had ~-0.1 (ASO through NDJ): This new one has ~-0.3 for August and has trimonths through DJF at ~-0.2. So, it’s ~steady from now through winter though it still tends to have a bit of a warm bias even this late. The implied RONI low would be ~~-0.5 ignoring this warm bias. @Stormchaserchuck1

another 2.7 quake in the NYC area.. 2 in a few days,, something bigger coming?

Looking like models want to bring back the 100° heat for spots like Newark next week before the 15th. Be interesting to see if this matches recent history since 1994 of no 100s after August 15th. But wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually end up getting late August into early September 100° heat again. Especially since the model runs over the last 5 days have really dried out the forecast pattern again after the locally flooding rains last week. Not a great precedent to set for this much warmer climate if we can continue to reload 100° heat following these flash flood events. Past instances of these flooding events usually came after the 100s and we didn’t get follow up 100s. I was thinking as recently as a few days ago that maybe only a few warm spots in NJ could challenge 100° again. But the latest guidance is suggesting that 100° heat could also be possible in places like Queens. So unfortunately we may be entering an even warmer phase of these already warmer to record warm summers since 2010. The posters that were suggesting that we could see a mid-August heatwave at least rivaling the one back in late July may turn out to be correct. Good call on your part.