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My takeaway is NAM is leaning 2-4, 3k NAM is about 3, HRRR is 4-7, for Knox as a baseline for central valley, adjusting the gradient west to east.

Poor Hamilton County…. All alone without a WWA .

6z Nam

My previous post is gone, so I took the time to provide a new update: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017152042779689147

But top is nam 06 and bottom is nam 3k 06 see the difference

It was early in model run thats why I edited my post

So if the model says 3 or 4 we double that possibly right since its a dry snow?

Not seeing that, what do you mean?

Hrr 06

Nam 06 only hitting knox north Edit looks better on 3k

So far, every model is saying 7"+ for me except the Euro. It is saying 3". Will be interesting to see exactly what happens. At least for my area, it's on an island by itself.

06z HRRR and its still snowing in ENC

Below is for all mountain counties. GSP has upped it again. My current temp is 16.2. It has been a long time since I have been in the teens the morning of a snow storm. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The mountains of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.

I guess it makes sense to a weather weenie but this is way too much for the general public that still don’t even know the difference between a watch and warning.

Still here just trying to figure out what im going to do with all this snow. .

Thanks to @Holston_River_Rambler I'm just chillin out to some old school stuff. Mrs. Pipe doesn't care for the music though. (I love it)

Must be the sun spots or is it just cold here and no where else on the planet. It’s a balancing act has to be well above normal somewhere have not had the time to see where.

LOL - facts aren't opinions. It consistently IS the best model. That's an objective fact backed by years of study and data collected and analyzed by people who gace forgotten more about weather than you or I will ever know. Go look it up. Educate yourself a little. Does that mean it's ALWAYS right? Of course not. Hopefully you're able to grasp that distinction - but at this point I have some doubts. And if your "opinion" is based on nothing more than vibes and nonsense, as yours happens to be in this case, it's connection to "the truth" is about as tenuous as your understanding of how to assess weather models. You can have the "opinion" that the earth is flat - that is absolutely your right. But you'd still be wrong. Comically so. Just as you are here.

Where is everyone? Back in my day, we’d model watch and post all night, then go straight into work without any sleep.

They are going to be wrong in my opinion . i just can’t see how we don’t end up with some backfill once this thing hits the coast. with the winds expected I could easily see a 1 to 2 inch band hit the area at some point.. If this slides even more south then yeah maybe we get nothing but right now I’m still in the 3-6 boat for RVA

HRRR finally on board. .

Another historical note: around this time in 1947 (when there was a major winter storm in Wisconsin per the daily roundup above), England was being plunged into a deep freeze that lasted six weeks and produced the coldest February on record. Constant sea effect snowfalls in addition to a few synoptic scale storms buried the Midlands in several feet of snow and stopped train and road travel. It was already a time of rationing and hardship as England recovered from the recent war, but the situation got worse because of the frigid unseasonable weather. The cold spell ended abruptly in mid-March followed by a severe flood from snow melt and rain. The Trent and Ouse Rivers draining the Midlands eastward went well over their banks. The rest of the year 1947 produced many warm weather records in England, and has more daily warm records than any other year as well as being in the top ten for cold records. The next severe winters in 1955 and 1956 were nowhere near as bad, but 1962-63 produced almost the same outcomes, as did Nov-Dec 2010 but by then the nation had better infrastructure in place to deal with heavy snowfalls and freezing temperatures.