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One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall.

Sat image reminds me of Opal.

With this now a major hurricane this thing is coming east as noted above. That will really put us here in WNC in the bullseye in my opinion. Also we've seen this before but in situations like this the models underperforme on precipitation amounts. Also keep an eye out on sustained winds and wind gusts.

We all know that this storm will likely be weakening on approach, but when landfall is around 12 hours away you really want to start seeing signs soon. As it currently is presenting it appears to be a cat 3, which underwent rapid intensification a couple days ago and has since intensified steadily with a jump overnight as rotating columns established themselves, that is still in that process of an intensification jump.

When will it make its north turn. Seems to still be heading north east.

We should bear in mind that as of 2023, if we consider all transport vs the total of all of the industrialized world, fossil fuels is a lot less than that used in total industry-powered humanity. EV will shorten the car/light truck load, but some 70 or so % of fossil fuel energy consumption is outside of the transportation sector. I read that a long while ago. I ran this inquiry past Luna/AI and it's still the case per Stanford studies. Industry, et all, is the bigger problem in the carbon footprint of humanity. The same Luna Q/A resulted in this as far EV offsetting ... "Using 2024, the best-supported estimate is roughly 60%: about 17 million electric cars, plus roughly 1 million electric light commercial vehicles, out of a total near 29 million electric road vehicles when electric two- and three-wheelers, buses, and trucks are included. " Based on all this, I would be surprised if oil spike shifts lower based upon EV surging. Obviously it would effect the curve some... What is needed to turn the curve down is forcing humanity to objectively acknowledge that CC is tantamount to the stench of shitting on their own dinner table - metaphor.

Not on radar, but that tower is producing substantial lightning now in the northern part of the eyewall.

I think the surge will be overblown on this. A fast moving small storm doesn't have time to build up a big surge. Kinda like a Charley situation.

Simon appears to be doing what most EPAC hurricanes have done this year. It's undergoing rapid intensification. A pinhole eye has formed in the direct center of the tiny CDO. This is a microcane for now and on its way to becoming a major hurricane today. It will most likely grow in size over the weekend. It's tiny core will expand, and the pinehole eye should give way to a larger eye eventually.

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall.

FWIW, which is not much at the moment, the GFS/Euro/Euro AI and ensembles have troughing roll through the eastern U.S. around October 18th. It could be enough to trigger another coastal.

Well i didn’t expect it but somehow we got a picturesque hurricane out if this. Clearly very powerful looking at satellite. Beast

That's pre-determined. It should've been retired and replaced. Now I'm guessing it will be

It surely doesn’t seem like it. Granted, I think we’re paying for all of the nice weather luck we’ve had the last couple of years.

As for the football “controversy” noted, the earlier arrival time brings the worst weather in Alabama and Mississippi through before the games. That being said, I could see significant wind damage in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning and the chance for widespread power outages. While weather during that game will be fine, the damage done prior would be my concern. 50-60 mph gusts will probably occur with the remnant eyewall wherever that ends up and combined with wet soils that should be pretty damaging. The games in Georgia and Carolina’s will be wet with severe weather and lightning causing possible delays. Given the magnitude of the game in Tuscaloosa and amount of people there it would probably be wise to maybe close the lots until 2 pm or something to keep people from trying to tailgate or drive during the worst weather when trees could potentially come down

the difference is one is wishcasting, the other is forecasting 53/47 with clear sunny skies

IMO they’ve never been great at PR. I don’t necessarily blame them - that’s a different set of expertise but nonetheless, I think all offices get a bit too caught up in technicalities and splitting hairs. The greater public doesn’t operate with the mindset of what PWAT anomalies might or might not be, lift, probability of winds getting mixed down to the surface etc etc. Sometimes, you just have to look at the system as a whole imo and ask “does it elevate the risk of injury, death or property damage, and would us issuing these warnings make people take the system more seriously?” The answer is yes.

Would love to see recon sample the eastern eyewall again. It just passed the NE portion of the eyewall. 958.7mb extrapolated so far.

Can we get a good weather event at home this year. LOL Ill be on the couch at the house watching this one.

Cloud deck reminds me of how it looks before a big winter's storm. Last year before our sleetfest we had a brilliant sunrise in the morning. Crazy what some high clouds can do

Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (2011) NYC: 86 (1916) LGA: 85 (2011) JFK: 87 (2011) Lows: EWR: 35 (1988) NYC: 37 (1988) LGA: 40 (1988) JFK: 35 (2001) Historical: 1703: Early-season snowstorm from Philadelphia to Boston. "The snow is now three to four inches deep... a sad face of winter" (Judge Samuel Sewall's diary) 1804: New England's Snow Hurricane of 1804 - - - At Norfolk, winds shifted from Force 3 southwest (on the Beaufort scale) to Force 6 northwest by 2 p.m.. A schooner Rising Stakes, off Cape Henry, went through the "dreadful squall" at 11 a.m.. The system passed through Chesapeake Bay, then inland between Philadelphia and Atlantic City before moving onward to New York City and Boston. Eight perished offshore. As it passed through the Northeast, it became a nontropical low as cold air rapidly enveloped the circulation of the cyclone. Snow fell from the hills of Connecticut northward into Canada. As much as 24 to 30 inches of snow fell in the Berkshires of Massachusetts...which in a wet snow could be approximated to six inches or more of liquid precipitation. This was the first reference to snow involved with a land falling tropical cyclone, but not the last as this happen again in the April th and 7th storm of 1889.(Ref. for Snow Hurricane of 1804)(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1804: The famous Snow Hurricane moved ashore near Atlantic City on this day. After briefly passing through Connecticut and into Massachusetts, cold air was entrained in the circulation with heavy snow falling between New York to southern Canada. Berkshires Massachusetts and Concord New Hampshire record two feet of snow with this hurricane. This storm produced the first observation of snow from a hurricane, but not the last. Hurricane Ginny of 1963 brought up to 18 inches (400 mm) of snow to portions of Maine. 1895: Snow fell in Philadelphia, PA, the earliest occurrence of snow in the city's history. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1903: At Richmond, a "furious wind storm" descended upon the city the morning of the 9th, accompanied by a 20 degree fall in temperature. Trees were uprooted and communications were "disturbed" in the state capital. An elderly man in Leesburg drowned while trying to cross over Little River on a log. East Coast Storms 1924: Boston, Massachusetts started a period of 44 days without measurable precipitation today. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1944: Major hailstorm in Montana causes $7.5 million crop loss. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1970: The Weather Bureau is officially renamed the National Weather Service. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1973: Heavy rains and hail pounded extreme eastern South Dakota during the late evening hours. 3.79 inches of rain fell in a 2 hour period at the Sioux Falls airport setting a new rainfall intensity record for a two hour period in Sioux Falls. The 4.54 inches that fell that day is the second highest amount on record for a 24 hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Nashville, TN set two records in opposite directions. On Monday, October 6th, the morning low temperature was 31°, a record cold for so early in the season. Then, on this date, the high was 91°, a record high for so late in the season. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2001: An unusually strong fall outbreak of tornadoes spawned at least 23 twisters across parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. Hardest hit was the town of Cordell, OK, but a 22 minute lead time led to an amazingly low casualty count: only nine injuries and no fatalities. 2003: A severe thunderstorms rolled across Bikoro in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lightning struck a school, killing 11 people and injuring 73 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: A major winter storm brought heavy wet snowfall to the Front Range Mountains and the Eastern Foothills in Colorado, portions of the Denver Metro area and the Palmer Divide. Snow accumulations ranged from 8 to 26 inches with drifts 3 to 4 feet high reported in places. The heaviest snow occurred to the east and southeast of Denver closing major highways, including I-70 from Denver to Limon. Snowfall totals included: 22 inches near Hawkins, 19 inches near Bennett, 17 inches southeast of Aurora, 16 inches in the foothills near Boulder, 14 inches near Parker, 13 inches near Castle Rock, 12 inches in Centennial, 11 inches at Parker, 10 inches at Littleton and 10 inches at the airport in Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

59 / 46 looking like upper 60s to mid 70s across the board. Weekend split again nice Saturday mimic of Friday and a wet Sunday into Monday 1-2 inches of rain. Overall warmer 10/13-14 then cooling down by meid month towards and below nomal.

The odds this maintains cat 3 into landfall are not low. Also the fast forward motion is going to aid in gusts. Very serious situation unfolding now. Hope everyone took evacuation orders seriously

Its out of the south by Sunday