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It depends on how well coupled the stat and trop are, which is just about impossible to diagnose at a seasonal level. This is why I missed the late January blocking...I nailed the PV intensification through January, but they weren't coupled, so we still had blocking persist.

Flurries in McLean

6z EPS still brings a chance of light snow on Sunday to southern PA.

Yeah definitely final warming. As westerly winds weaken we can be prone to more blocking. It just sounds like from what I gather many in the field aren’t counting on that in March. Of course there are various ways to get blocking….just what I heard. I don’t care either way, I just want to know if it will snow or nots

But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though

I had atrial flutter and an ablation I can relate. Getting old supposed golden years my ass lol

Really not very warm in NE.

It will def. be a late-spring...that was always a given IMHO. Question remains RE how much snow remains in the balance.

Anyway, good discussion....this is why our threads are awesome.

Current temp of 29 is the low. Looks like yesterday broke (just barely) MDT’s consecutive streak of below normal days.

Yes, it's a final warming, but point is it's not strong at any point in March, either.

Remember, Scott....we don't necessarily need the mother lobe of the PV in close proximity to have a productive March at this latitude. 2018 was a perfect example of that. Now granted, we aren't going to get the major SSW in time like we did that year and I thought we would this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean we won't get another round of stretching. Furthermore, this season has also already very aptly demonstrated a strong predisposition towards high latitude latitude blocking at least excuse imaginable due to the aforementioned strat-solar-ENSO overlay, which is what I meant by adhering to pre-season work. Where was the huge stratospheric smoking gun that triggered the latter January NAO blocking??

Let’s get a couple of good 36° catpawed April stemwinders.

I don’t know about you, but I thought this past November was a colossal failure. 0.5” against a normal of 2.4”. And October was even worse. We got exactly 0% of our monthly normal of 0.4”.

If the Panda was a Wolf…

Would have thought blocking would have returned with this.

That looks like it’s setting up for April hell.

IMO this is the worst case scenario. Too warm to snow then as usual we get phase 8 and blocking to give us yet another cold rainy spring.

Needs to get to 8 faster.

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring.

We didn't have the MJO constantly flexing in the MC and flatlining in the west Pac at that point.

Sounded like they never saw any chance of a SSW in February, until guidance actually showed it at like 10 days lead. It didn't work out, but my point is that group-think isn't very effective....this stuff isn't often apparent until very short leads. This harkens back to what I said to @Typhoon Tipyesterday, about letting the foundational pre-season work guide you.

The CC related fast flow has definitely played a role in lack of coastals. I think 10+ years ago we would've scored with the big coastal earlier and the one coming up. Northern stream only systems is why half the country is in a drought

Many preseason forecasts were front loaded and the warmer 2nd half; is this the start of the warmer 2nd part of winter?

Yea, back is brocken, but there remains a functional spine....it's not a paraplegic. I just think you need to be a bit more nuanced in your approach here.