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MA forum starting to get concerned

Lots of Tucked members off the coast.

Impressive four run trend from the AIFS ensemble. Note the western ridge trending further west and more amplified. Meanwhile the combination of the ridging east of Hudson Bay and trough over SE Canada exerts less of a suppressive influence, allowing the Sun-Mon trough to amplify more.

i will 100% take this at this range

Your ratios must have been bigly! lol

i will 100% take this 5-6 days out, let the chips fall where they may

lol absolutely not, if the euro was the only model showing a hit without the support from the AIFS it would be tossed in the trash

I remember that. Was up in Lancaster for that event and the Euro blew chunks on that storm. The 00z Euro on 2/9/10 only had us around 0.5" QPF (I was the lead forecaster for campus weather service that night). Everyone rightfully saw that as a red flag for the event, but the UKMET, GFS, Canadian, and NAM were all in lock step. We ended up with 18" - 22" in Lancaster from that. The night before, the NWS had us at 6" - 12".

I know it’s just the JMA, but it’s another piece of guidance not on the euro op camp

stormvista down for me

It's also slightly S-E of previous mean

Euro is not always right as we found out plenty of times. If it had some support from like anything I’d be more worried but attm it and it’s ens to an extent are by itself, it’s AI partner not even on board with it.

Idk. I'll join @SnowenOutThere in the panic room. Hope it pans out!

FWIW the evening before the Feb 9 2010 storm the Euro was showing about .65 qpf total for me. I got 32" of snow.

EPS has some really good members

FWIW The I phone weather app shows 13-16" for Monday...

I gave a list of pros and cons for this in the monthly thread this morning. That content still applies. 50/50 ...

yep if the euro had showed a HECS it would be hailed as great model and a list of storms it nailed. Instread it's a terrible model that has "struggled" all winter. It did quite well this year on the 12/26/25 storm BTW

Or everything else is "finding" a storm that isn't there… We shall see

Euro on its on of course its members going to follow to an extent. All the other models are fine. Still days out. Just keep tracking and see where it goes.

agreed - I wouldn't discriminate against any model in this set -up - BUT when I see the GEFS and EPS not on board for anything other than an advisory level event - thats a RED FLAG against these OP models advertiising a MECS + event

Absolutely definitely.

At 7 am, I said that the old timey Euro can't find the storm. It's still looking. This is very early at nearly 5 days out. It might still find it.

Looks very Feb 9, 2010. Barely anything here and 2' in Baltimore. There is nothing I hate more than Miller Bs.