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How can the temperature indoors drop so quickly that you need to turn on a space heater with lows in the mid 50s?

0z GFS and 6Z GFS were trying.. sucks it's so far out

31.6°

so close to your first frost, Rob! (I think 36 is the highest temperature you can have a frost?)

The best thing about this morning is that it's crystal clear.

Too cold, 55 here. I turned on my space heater (I had it on yesterday during the day when it was windy too.)

it will be close to 80 from Saturday through Tuesday.

Yes the difference between Friday and Saturday is going to be very noticeable. We'll be close to 80 from Saturday through Tuesday.

38 was indeed the low this morning.

Shop Davis station hit 39 /home 40, love this weather.

44 degree's once i got to Mahwah. What a feeling getting that fresh cool air with some remnants of fire places still in the air. Awesome out!

My coolest morning of the fall so far with a low of 46°.

The forecast is inconsistent with the AFD, which states: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Our expansive high pressure system remains the dominant weather feature through the short term period. This keeps the tranquil weather pattern going into the weekend. Friday night and Saturday night look mostly clear with minimal cloud cover. During the day Saturday, it is a mostly sunny day. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The NBM has consistently shown highs of 77°-79° for Saturday and Sunday. Moreover, if one uses "South Belmar" (Lake Como) and "West Belmar," one gets the warmer forecast. Belmar: South Belmar: West Belmar:

Patchy frost this morning.. down to 36

51 here so far. On a morning like this I’d expect another 1-3 degrees will be lost in the next hour before recovering.

40 this morning.

Nearly all the mesonet stations have reached the 40s. 47.6 IMBY

This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition

56 here

It also looks like some phase 5 forcing on the CANSIPS anomaly maps. But yea, 5-6-7 look dominant verbatim

As always thanks Roger. It is nice to see as a consensus we do pretty well!

Don't be thinking i'm not always rooting for the anomaly or just to be dead wrong because I sure as hell hope I am. I will remain positive and will be rooting for the storms but deep down inside my true feelings will be haunting me. That said, here's a little Ai overview on this winter's solar cycle. I'm not complaining. The 2025–2026 winter is occurring during the Solar Cycle 25 peak, which is expected to last between November 2024 and March 2026. This period of high solar activity is the most intense of the cycle, leading to more frequent and powerful solar storms and increased aurora activity. While the solar maximum influences Earth's atmosphere by heating it and potentially disrupting satellites and power grids, the primary drivers of the winter weather are changing atmospheric conditions, particularly the fading of La Niña and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Just did a brief search on the solar phase in 1963 and I wasn't surprised to find this. During the winter of 1963, the Sun was in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 19, heading toward a period of minimal activity. Solar Cycle 19 is notable for having the highest sunspot number ever recorded at its peak, but by 1963, sunspot and flare activity had significantly decreased. We missed out last solar minimum as we sometimes do, but the long cold winters, we all love and miss could and will return any year.But as i've stated year after year, i'm a huge believer that the minimum time frame is our best bet.

What I'm saying is I would much prefer to take my chances with dry and cold and gamble on a overlapping mid to late cold season, active Atlantic or some angry gorillas. I still think we have a few years of descending solar untill we have a chance at a wall to wall banger.

If it's not going to rain, then I would prefer we get into December dry and, with some luck, cool . Snce we made it to this point without much rain, I personally don't want to see to much wet and/or cold around here the next 10 to 12 weeks. If we can get a cold winter, let's not forget we can have well below normal precipitation and still be well above normal in snow accumulation.