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I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow map

@tnweathernut nailed it. Huge hitter on the first wave there from the gfs.

h5 was so good… surface so mediocre. Whatever. We’re alive another run.

If only the GFS was a good model

Good hold by the gfs. I like the h5 vort being further south and west of previous runs, temps be damned. This is the path to victory

Well, hr 108..one camp will cave soon.

Boom goes the dynamite from hour 102 to 108 for the half of the state, especially east TN. Snow map will be pretty for some.

PVA axis is more N-S

Yikes 41F in DC. The problem is we are just coming out of +epo which keeps the northern stream cutoff somewhat.

Well I see Southern Maryland is back to its rightful location sweating the rain/snow line, everything is looking like a classic setup - lock it in.

Wait for it

To my eye, this is very Jan 26, 2011 esque

Looking more like 12z .

They'll crash

No. It’ll start as rain but go to snow as the ull passes

Snow DC and a bit east by 120

Agreed. The tough issue with this potential that can't be changed is the approach of the pacific s/w. Normally, I like the "ribbon" coming through the Yellowstone region in a ESE direction. With the ridge so firmly anchored over Northern California, we're dealing with a wave diving out from the Dakotas to the SSE. But there's more than one way to bake a cake, and this seems to be one of them. Whatever works. lol

Anyone else loving the upper levels but worried about lack of cold air?

118 temps are iffy

Closed 500 low over western/central Tennessee by HR 111. Surface low over western South Carolina. Everyone east of I-81 starts as rain, but the flip to snow seems imminent.

Flipping over… would be a painful wait but hopefully worth it

I said that 30 minutes ago

I'm at HR 108 and the presentation at 500 mb looks good to my eye. Passing through western Tennessee and starting to go neutral.