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it could also be because the airmass is cooler.

Sounds awful

100% about beach season being later August into September, for so many reasons ( as you know) I'd prefer 90+ June right through September with few or no breaks though :p

Euro weaklies beyond 8/11 are very warm. hm

Perfect. Aug 15th-Oct 1st might as well be AN. Prime beach season. Tickling 90 here and there is nbd.

Yeah I was just looking at later month, majority of anomalies look near or AN

What a couple days. Longsleeves in the house this morning, low of 48. Sun and 77 today, dark blue skies, bugs on vacay.

I would look for an AN second half to the month.

We're gonna have to put a NSFW tag on this thread.

uh... not sure I was being skeptical of either solution. I was just noting the differences - although I'm not sure the +AO connotes a cooler regime in New England, should a more GEFesque solution pervade, but I'll stop shy of really digging into that. Both models (academically) suck giant donkey balls at that range so the whole bringing it up was just for muse. The teleconnection spread is neutral in scalar field values, neutral during a time of year when the correlations are not that great to begin with. Which means, between that kind of vagueness, and these operational runs being diametrical in their implications, and the fact that they suck at that range anyway... it all means flip a coin. anyone into the petty squabble between warm and cool is not taking any trophies for the time being. Brian's probably right. Go CC footprint and throw a few fronts through it. Probably AN but not hugely so. There may be a heat wave in Aug

Yup exactly. These ACATT thinking BN all of Augdewst and cold shots seek absolutely cocked . I’ll disagree in many lower dew days though. I think we’ll see many high dew days with lower sprinkled in.

78 high here today with onshore wind.

Yeah I expect a continuation of what we’re in now. The ridge flexes and we get a shot of big heat ahead of the next digging shortwave…rinse repeat. Probably near to slightly AN the next couple weeks with many days of lower dews.

Part of my skepticism with the AI stuff too is (and I'm not sure if this applies across all AI models because I'm sure there are different techniques and practices) the physics and chemistry is infinitely more complex then just training a model to produce a forecast based on historical measures. To my understanding, there are AI models in the works (like the google one) where there is very little involvement of calculus and physics equations and one of the reasons why it can process more quickly. If I am wrong on that - please let me know. One of, if not, the biggest reasons why we see forecast models struggle at times is due to boundary layer initialization, errors which result from approximations when deriving equations, and errors from parameterization. AI isn't just going to fix or magically solve this alone. So when we're dealing with complex weather systems which have complex evolutions AI is going to do no better than other guidance and if anything, will only add to uncertainties because it's just another tool in the toolbox and you'll have people who probably side with the AI just because AI seems to be taking over and nobody wants to use critical thinking anymore. Until we are able to better understand, measure, and parameterize complex processes and evolution and further improve model resolution (vertical/horizontal) and introduce something like quantum computing which will have the resources needed to do this, AI isn't going to be the game changer we need when it comes to forecasting complex weather systems and extreme weather events. Just my two cents.

Yeah I haven't looked at weaklies in a bit, if week 2-4 end up torchy that is something to consider, given it's easier to hit those higher departures in Aug

No doubt. The face of heavy metal music.

We’ll see if Newark can pull off their first 100° reading on July 25th this Friday. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=98&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&month=9&var=high&thres=100&dir=above&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yea. Agree. I’d still lean N or a tick AN just because that’s how we run it thesedays.

Suddenly everyone around town is an expert on evapotranspiration today.

It’s only going to get worse as more cuts are made by the corrupt authoritarian regime while continuing to deny CC.

I've been on the cool train for at least a week or so, when models started flaunting the EC weaknesses with ease. some models have more of a curved/rounded shitty looking L/W trough, some are more normal looking with embedded s/ws re-establishing the weakness and stalled sfc front.. I'd hedge towards a BN August, maybe some decent severe wx and also a cane hit/near-miss

I want to start putting more time aside to research this further, but the one question I have right now is, what is the run-to-run consistency of the AIFS (and other AI models)? If the run-to-run consistency is there and its outperforming other guidance then that would be extremely noteworthy. But in terms of the extreme weather events, this is where we need to be developing "better forecasts" and improving communication skills. This is what is having a greater impact on human lives and decision making. Part of the challenges in this regard is the lower level of confidence that arises due to forecast model inconsistencies (whether that be run-to-run or model-to-model). Who cares if the AIFS is nailing a forecast high of 87 9 days out when the ECMWF maybe had 84 or 93. But to my post, this is where utilizing AI in the nowcast/short-term could have extreme benefits in extreme weather forecasting. Quantum computing is going to be a major game changer.

Why the skepticism? Even at ECMWF, they say the AIFS beats the ECMWF in the majority of cases. They do feel that the physics-based models are better at handling the extreme events, which makes sense, in that extreme events have little historical precedent. It would seem that a combination of the two is the best approach now, but I would look for AI to become the go-to soon. Then comes quantum computing, ha ha!