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It's very funny lol

Much more elegant than my analysis. But I do absolutely agree.

I've heard everybody from Steve spagnolo to Flores, to lafluer from green bay. I even heard on the radio that former raven anthony weaver was gonna interview for it...The ravens are gonna interview a lot of them over next couple weeks.

The subsurface rapidly warming in the cold season tends to correspond to colder periods out here. We should have an actual, real, cold day locally tommorow - in line with that idea, and the observed rapid warming. High of 38F/low of 19F forecast for tommorow. Already seeing rain transition over to snow. It's actually kind of neat that we're still getting snow in this pattern since we're literally running >10F above average winter to date (Dec 1-). Month to date, as in December, the greatest warmth relative to averages is found in the Northwest (+15-20F so far). We're already just about at/over average precipitation locally for January as of 1/8. We're already above Nov-Jan mean precipitation too. I've seen people liken the winter to 2017-18, and the warmth concentrating in the West so far is a bit like that. But precip is very different - we went 96 days without any measurable precip here from Oct-Jan in that winter, and went from Oct-Feb without 0.1" total at one point. This is a much warmer, but much wetter (better) pattern for the West. I still expect January to see the beginning of a cold retrograde to the West, but everything has been running a week later than I expected. The relatively widespread eastern/plains cold I thought would come in wk1 January is showing up for week 2/3 in the CPC 8-14 outlook (with 2022-23 showing as an analog each run). That cold should settle in for a bit and then retrograde West in late January and especially February. Locally the MJO/harmonic storm cycle seems to be ~48 days this cold-season, ~early Oct/late Nov/early Jan so far. So I'd expect more decent rain/snow events here in late Feb/early Apr before the pattern breaks.

Pouring here - prolly have flood puddles everywhere by morning if this keeps up. 44th straight day of snow cover - streak may be ending.

Yeah I only track snowstorms if we are in a cold airmass with room to spare

Well it's the icon 7-8 days out so I'm not gonna jump off a cliff quite yet lol

Meso models hinting at some squalls for Sunday morning out here way west of town. Especially the RGEM. But they all show it to an extent. we will see.

It’s coming.

They are getting ready to chase the storms out to sea next week?

It's never a lock. Just a constant long-range tease. The trick is to get a solid threat inside 7 days on multiple models for consecutive runs. That has been extremely elusive in recent years. Long range average ensemble anomaly charts don't accurately predict storm threats. That's because the favorable "patterns" and "looks" usually don't look so favorable when they shift from blended long range averages to the intricacies and complex interactions of actual 500mb height fields.

Gotta admit that is hilarious, lol

12z ICON tracked the northern stream shortwave through Wyoming and phased in the ULL early. The 0z is much further east and misses the phase with the ULL. No Gulf low as a result. Also a more positively tilted trof and an Atlantic SLP along the offshore baroclinicity like other guidance. The 12z seemed unlikely since it had no support. But it showed the type of evolution that gives us our best shot at getting a significant coastal snowstorm.

A coastal is coming in the next 7-10 days, almost a lock. Only concern is precip type.

He is odd for sure, but kinda funny and an offensive guru. Love to have him as an OC if we end up hiring a defensive minded HC like Flores. He would get the most out of Lamar, unlike Monken who wanted to abandon the run and make Lamar run around behind a crap OL and buy time to throw downfield.

The first on that I buy is the Adams total.

I know, I know. I’m bullish though rest of season. LG, one time.

There are multiple players. It's always complicated with NS dominance, which prevails in a Nina. The energy riding overtop the western ridge is a separate issue from the TPV lobe. We need more spacing between that western energy and the lead digging shortwave AND we need the TPV to be in a position where it doesnt crush the digging shortwave, yet provides enough confluence to the north to keep a developing surface low tracking to our south...but not too far south. You get the picture.. its never easy unless we have a Modoki Nino with NA blocking. Then its just a come to papa waiting game with shortwaves in the southern stream.

Don’t forget Bilal. I think he will be a 2 way force in a few years . Already elite defensively

Is the 62" at Arlington plausible? Taunton reached 45" and Ashburnham 48" at the same time. How about the 60" at Washington 2 in 1963? Snow depth reached 4 feet at West Cummington at the same time. Also, two locations (Hoosac Tunnel and Adams) reached 50" depth in 1947. I knew 1947-1948 was a doozy, but I guess 1946-1947 was quite harsh as well. The most recent 50" depth was at Boxford 2.4S - a CoCoRaHS observer - in 2015. A number of 40"+ depths were recorded that winter, including 45" at Blue Hill Coop.

Klint would definitely be number 1 on my board. Also like the dolphin guy but he is kinda strange lol

Everytime we are at a 50 50 crossroad it ends up being 100 percent fail

Maybe that’s a good thing

On the 0z ICON, the northern stream shortwave tracks further east (Dakotas vs. WY/MT) as it dives southeastward to carve out the longwave trof. The ULL in the southeast is left behind and doesn't phase. No Gulf low and a positively tilted trof structure as a result.