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Well, yeah. It would take a little time to imprint on the circulation. Perhaps it's only one run but it was the same one. I would have expected to see some differences on the model if there were interference with the signal. Totally agree with you regarding phase 8. We'll definitely want to see the suppressed phase center itself over 120E to achieve the proper effectiveness IMO.

Models usually get wonky when dealing with Stratosphereic Warming.

See what it shows this afternoon,shouild update in about a hr and a half

Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo.

The washtub had a bit over 1" ice when I dumped it yesterday (before the ice would get thick enough to split the seams, like our last one), though some was gray ice from Sunday's snow. The old stock pond probably has close to 2" after this morning.

Yeah yesterday didn't look as good but I mean it freaking changes daily. But even a weakened state helps tremendously.

People just expect too much accuracy from model guidance, especially past day 10. The model doesn't know it's showing a "pattern change." That's just human interpretation, which is also subjective and biased. When models are inevitably less accurate in the long-range than we wish, particularly after we've identified a perceived regional "pattern change," we feel like the model failed or delayed it. But the failing is our false interpretation and unrealistic expectation. We really should stop anthropomorphizing weather models.

EPS seems to be having a rough time to have such volatile swings

That is just a one day snapshot from a 360 hr run. A few days before that it has a different look. Convection lingering near the Maritime Continent will tend to stall the movement toward a more classic phase 8 which was mentioned in the post that I was replying to.

Yeah, yesterday backed off and today gained momentum. Models for you.

That's as good a day as any for a snowstorm for this truck driver. I'm off on Black Friday, and won't go back to work until 12/3, so let it rip...lol

That's an ugly Euro run... It's also a fantastic continuity break for a span of time outside of D7 so meh. But it's attempting a -EPO with zero discernible pattern implications for S of 40 N across the continent. that'd be a neat trick.

Wow, pretty much nothing jives up at all, haha. Wild

I don't know. That doesn't look very significant. Where is the said difference? This is that same eps run as posted and these look basically like a carbon copy, to me.

The map he showed was the OZ,i assume early this morning,mine was yesterday afternoon,so it must have changed between

I seen that this morning,

I'd honestly prefer to get deeper into December.

are we still interested about stratwarm and potential ramifications mid and late Dec?

The affinity and tendency for ULLs to traverse the entire length of CA is going to be a recurring problem (as others have stated). That makes it difficult to break free of the warm/wet -- dry/cold oscillations.

41 with drizzle.

Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either.

For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:

With the SE ridge looking stout, I have to be skeptical about any long lasting cold/winter weather threats. Maybe as we get deeper in December.

I'm up on top of Sugarloaf Mountain at almost 1300' elevation. It feels even colder up here. It's probably 38. It feels like deep winter.

March has been one of our fastest warming months. So the long term trend of snowfall has been down. NYC did come close back in 2018 but they couldn’t match the 10”+ daily amounts from the colder era. I think March 2018 was probably the last shot that NYC had for 10”+ daily snowfall amount. As NYC has been too warm for much March snowfall since then. it’s possible in the future we can see another decent March snow, but it will probably too warm to challenge the 10”+ daily amounts from the colder era. March Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.5 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-12 2 15.7 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-08 3 13.5 1914-03-01 through 1914-03-01 4 12.5 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-03 5 10.2 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-13 6 10.0 1896-03-02 through 1896-03-02 7 9.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-22 8 8.6 1981-03-05 through 1981-03-05 9 8.2 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-21 10 7.8 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-19 11 7.6 2017-03-14 through 2017-03-14 - 7.6 1916-03-06 through 1916-03-06 12 7.5 2015-03-05 through 2015-03-05 13 7.1 1958-03-21 through 1958-03-21 14 6.9 1915-03-06 through 1915-03-06 15 6.5 2009-03-02 through 2009-03-02 - 6.5 1902-03-05 through 1902-03-05 16 6.2 1992-03-19 through 1992-03-19 - 6.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-16 17 6.0 1917-03-04 through 1917-03-04 - 6.0 1907-03-10 through 1907-03-10 - 6.0 1906-03-15 through 1906-03-15 - 6.0 1893-03-04 through 1893-03-04 - 6.0 1890-03-19 through 1890-03-19 - 6.0 1870-03-07 through 1870-03-07 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T