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Down to 20% now: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

There is a difference between lighthearted humor and passive-aggressive behavior. Most people want to read about the strongest El Niño on record rather than have to wade through these types of nonsense or banter posts. While I take it all in stride, it will cause others to just leave the forum.

Hey Spock, lighten up! It's only weather. Lol I'm still waiting for a definitive forecast whether the Canadian ridge will or won't be as strong as 23/24.

It's been a very quiet month up this way... all the action happening in the southern sub. Cool this morning w/46 @ my place. Chilly spot is the Yellow Dog @ 38.

Your impulse seems to be focusing more on the patterns that you would like to see rather than the patterns that we have been getting.

And there you have it. It's an irresistible impulse. Lol

Newark is lagging behind in the 90° day count for NJ due to the more frequent breezes off bay this summer. The excessive tree growth in NYC has artificially put them behind places like Baiting Hollow on Eastern Long Island and POU to the north. In the old days before the ASOS move to under the trees in 1995, NYC would always have more 90° days than LGA and POU. Data for January 1, 2026 through August 13, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HARRISON COOP 34 ESTELL MANOR COOP 32 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 28 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 28 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 28 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28 Newark Area ThreadEx 26 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 25 MCGUIRE AFB WBAN 25 Data for January 1, 2026 through August 13, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 20 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 20 PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 19 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 16 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 16 STEWART FIELD WBAN 14 SHRUB OAK COOP 13 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 12 Data for January 1, 1991 through August 13, 1991 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. GLENHAM COOP 32 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 31 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 31 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 30 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 25

I don't really have any reason to doubt it based on the radar signatures.

The pattern is producing much stronger 500 mb ridges across the CONUS and the rest of the mid-latitudes this summer than we ever had for such a strong El Niño. This is why the CONUS just had the warmest July average temperature on record instead of the cooler very strong El Niño summer pattern. We’ll have to wait and see if this is an early signal El Niño 500 mb ridge axis will press further to the south and or east than usual during the winter.

You must be anticipating a lot of winter weather coming up this season. Maybe this winter like the last few will be mostly a dud. But I do see where your coming from, concerned for the safety for your wife.

Was that 80mph gust in Cape legit? The damage there was impressive Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

The only way to estimate the magnitude of station breaks is from raw temperature data, by comparing stable and changed stations. As documented in this thread, my tests using raw temperature data in Chester County agree very well with the NCEI bias adjustments. Not surprising because the bias adjustments are calculated from the raw data. My experience in Chester County has convinced me that the NCEI method is bullet proof. Below is raw temperature info on the Phoenixville 1948 move. NCDC has monthly means for Phoenixville for Janaury through July 1948, partial data from August through November but no monthly mean until December 1948. Phoenixville cooled relative to Coatesville and West Chester when the monthly mean started again in December 1948. Phoenixville cooled 1.6F relative to Coatesville, and 2F relative to West Chester, due to the move. The stats using the monthly data are highly significant for both Coatesville and West Chester. The post-war moves at Coatesville (1946), West Chester (1970) and Phoenixville (1948) are all highly significant statistically. A coincidence that all of the major county COOP stations moved in the same direction and roughly the same magnitude after the war. Clearly not weather because the cooling occurred at different times at each station.

I read an article recently that implied that they initially establish heavily in an area for a couple of years and then begin to die off.

Wow 5 degrees in NYC? Holy hell! The day after tomorrow is real!

El Nino summers tend to be pretty hot down here in the deep southwest. I am near Austin. It's been pretty hot, highs generally about 100 degrees, lows generally about 77-84 with dews staying about 66-73. Hopefully this autumn/winter then spring 2027 we will see some majorly beneficial rains. But a lot of that is probably gonnabe smacking down places like Georgia/Alabama, the deep south states and the general Southeast getting ridiculous amounts of rain. Also the Carolinas, Virginia, DC and Kentucky, Tennessee. Those places are going to be just piling on massive epic rain tallies because every system that hits the CONUS is gonna smash into them and the STJ is going to be SO roided up. The pac jet is going to be pure fire, bigger and far more epic than a Playboi Carti concert.

All this chat for 1 out of 3,144 counties btw